Continuing with our overvalued and undervalued series, today we’ll be focusing on those who are overvalued in ESPN leagues.
ESPN’s ADP is all over the place. The site’s questionable pre-draft rankings are likely the main culprit for this mayhem. (Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL) in the top 10 is almost comical.) It could also be due to the fact that you can’t compete for (league) prize money anymore, which attracts fewer of the grizzled fantasy diehards and more of the play-at-their-leisure novice types.
It is still one of the most popular sites, however, and there are more than a few ESPN enthusiasts left. The rankings could also be a bit skewed because the ADP isn’t broken down by league type, and players who shine in points leagues seem to be greatly favored. Either way, when dissecting ESPN’s ADP, there is an excess of overvalued players.
Even though some of these rankings may appear off, where players are being drafted (on your specific site) matters. When making roster decisions on draft day, many managers will select a player based on where he is being selected according to the individual website. So, if ESPN has Max Scherzer (SP – NYM) going ninth overall, then he is likely to be chosen within the first 15 picks. In CBS leagues, Mad Max is going 27th overall, so he can perhaps be had somewhere after the second round in CBS drafts.
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While nearly every player within the top 100 ADP on any site is valuable, these five players are being taken far too early in ESPN leagues. They will still return fine results but should be avoided at such outlandish costs.
Check out other overvalued and undervalued articles here:
• Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Overvalued Players to Avoid
• Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Undervalued Players to Target
ESPN ADP: 18
Consensus ADP: 46
FantasyPros ECR: 51
Like the aforementioned Woodruff, Ray is one of the better arms in all of baseball, but to select him just after the first round is simply not smart. His consensus ADP is nearly three rounds later. I just wrote about Ray being undervalued in CBS leagues, where he is being drafted around 80th overall. It just goes to show how draft trends can take over from site to site and heavily influence managers.
While I do believe Ray will be better than many of his naysayers think, there is no way he should be taken in the mid-second round. His move to Seattle will help him and he will rack up the Ks in a much weaker division, but a late fourth/early fifth-round selection is more appropriate for the defending Cy Young Award winner.
ESPN ADP: 31
Consensus ADP: 71
FantasyPros ECR: 72
Maybe ESPN thinks it’s still 2019, because they absolutely love Alex Bregman. While he was once a solid second-round pick, the Astros’ third baseman hasn’t been able to reproduce his success since the notorious sign-stealing scandal broke. Yes, he has dealt with injury, but he has looked mediocre a majority of the time, and despite his earlier track record and a good eye, he’s still not worthy of a third-round selection.
Bergman won’t get you any steals, his average will be just that, and his power seems to have evaporated. Again, injuries could have a lot to do with all of that, but when analyzing his batted-ball profile, it doesn’t look great. He’s pulling the ball more than ever yet making a lot less hard contact. The former second overall pick also struggled with fastballs last year. His ground ball rate increased, while his line drives decreased, and his home runs per fly ball dropped to a career low.
Bregman still possesses upside, but by taking him in the third round, you’re betting on his max potential. With two down seasons in a row (if you count 2020), and a lousy batted ball profile, the LSU alum should be considered in round seven or eight, rather than 31st overall.
ESPN ADP: 36
Consensus ADP: 61
FantasyPros ECR: 59
I’m staying far away from Gausman this year. As great as he was in the first half of last season, his second half produced marginal results. Plus, he’s moving away from one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball and back into the AL East, where he has struggled in the past. Granted, Gausman was a different pitcher back then, but it still can’t be viewed as a positive change.
Another negative will be the loss of Buster Posey as his battery mate. Posey’s elite pitch-framing and game-calling skills were a boon for Gausman and will obviously be missed. Danny Jansen (C – TOR) is pretty decent behind the dish as well, but he’s no Posey, and there’s no guarantee he holds onto the starting job.
With Gausman’s mediocre second half (86 hits and 12 home runs allowed in 77.1 innings) and a move to a much tougher pitching environment, the big right-hander is a much better value in the sixth or seventh round than in the fourth.
ESPN ADP: 38
Consensus ADP: 60
FantasyPros ECR: 56
I don’t mean to pick on the Astros, but the days of the All-Star second baseman earning a top-40 pick are long gone. A big part of what made Altuve so valuable is missing. Altuve, who turns 32 in May, no longer steals many bases nor hits for an impressive average. The power should not be doubted despite his small frame, but without steals, average, or more than 85 RBI, it’s tough to prioritize Altuve before round six.
The swing-at-everything Altuve has also dealt with his fair share of injuries over the past few years. The Astros are without a true leadoff man, so Altuve will likely bat first, where his run total will be excellent, but his RBIs will take a hit.
A second baseman who can hit 30 home runs and score 110 runs is hardly someone to scoff at, but with all the downside those numbers come with, Altuve is best avoided at ESPN’s current ADP. Unless he falls to you past 50th overall, leave him for your competition.
ESPN ADP: 41
Consensus ADP: 70
FantasyPros ECR: 68
I was debating whether to put Corey Seager (SS – TEX) (20 picks before his consensus ADP) or Berrios here. While I think both players will excel in their new homes, I just can’t endorse spending an early fifth-round pick on the Blue Jays’ ace.
The former Twin did produce favorable numbers last year after moving to Toronto, but a projected line of 13 wins, 200 Ks, a 3.65 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP just isn’t worth more than a seventh-round pick in today’s game. I wouldn’t fault you for reaching for him, however, as his age and probable run support are tantalizing. So is his dramatic walk to strikeout rate. But when guys like Pete Alonso (1B – NYM), Trevor Story (SS – FA), and Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA) are available, it’s best to hold off on Berrios a few more rounds.
Berrios could be in for a career year, but with a barrel rate over 9% and a hard-hit rate reaching nearly 40% (Statcast), you have to be wary of an AL East pitcher going 41st overall.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
