It’s all too easy to overreact to spring training since it’s all we have at our disposal to prognosticate how well players may perform, at least out of the gate. So much of these early performances are just noise that doesn’t translate into how the season will go from a real or fantasy perspective. However, that doesn’t mean that there are no positive or negative trends that can be extracted from it. After all, a sustainable hot streak could signal a breakout year and a bad (not just unlucky) string of games can portend a slow start or a year-long regression. Our featured pundits have examined these trends to discern which ones could carry the most impact for fantasy and identify which players will benefit or lose out as a result.
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Q1. Who has seen their fantasy stock rise the most for you based on spring training?
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM) | Dominic Smith (1B/OF – NYM)
“I’ll make mention of a couple of New York Mets here. Francisco Lindor is an easy choice for notable spring performers, given that he is hitting .474 so far this spring with four home runs. Lindor was a consensus top-15 pick over the past couple of seasons, but his first season with the Mets last season was a disaster (.230 AVG, .734 OPS). However, the 28-year-old is off to a torrid start this spring and looking to bounce back in a big way. He’ll be hitting in the middle of a much-improved Mets lineup and appears to be a strong draft-day value given his current ADP (50). Meanwhile, teammate Dominic Smith is also looking for a bounceback season and is currently hitting .389 this spring with a home run and a 1.300 OPS. Smith was simply fantastic in 2020 but struggled mightily last season, particularly against right-handed pitching. Long gone are the days of uncertainty about whether or not Smith would play regularly. With the adoption of the DH in the NL, Smith will be in the lineup every day and is one of my favorite draft-day values this season, with his current ADP of 322.“
– Lucas Spence (Pitcher List)
Kris Bryant (1B/3B/OF – COL)
“I’m not sure anyone’s stock has risen more during this post-lockout version of spring training than Kris Bryant. No one really knows what the Colorado Rockies are doing as an organization, but most agree that there aren’t many better landing spots for a power hitter than Coors Field. Third base is arguably the thinnest position in fantasy baseball this season, and Bryant has quickly moved up the rankings after signing with the Rockies. He does have a bit of an injury history, but the National League adding the DH should help Bryant — who has spent the entirety of his seven-year career in the NL — stay fresh throughout the summer.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Jo Adell (OF – LAA)
“Jo Adell’s tools and upside have never been in question. However, his strikeout rate has undermined him in ‘The Show.’ The soon-to-be-23-year-old outfielder has struck out in a palatable six of 28 plate appearances while displaying his tantalizing power and speed combo, smacking three taters and swiping three bags without getting caught stealing. As a result, he’s climbed my outfield and overall rankings.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“It has to be Jo Adell of the Angels for me. Adell has incredible athleticism and looks like he’s finally converting that into being a baseball player. He offers power and speed, which have been on display this spring with three HRs and three SBs already. Playing time will be the key to Adell’s ultimate success. He’s gone from an ADP nearly in the 300s to currently 225, and that still makes him an incredible value.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Keston Hiura (1B – MIL)
“Jorge Alfaro is finally looking like his promising self, and the talent is rising for Jo Adell. However, a swing change seems to be totally reviving the once hyped and promising Keston Hiura. Not only does he have seven hits in 15 at bats (.467), but three of those hits have left the yard. He’s sort of lost his spot in the lineup, but could easily take it back if this start to his 2022 is legit. Because of the pedigree and everything we once loved about him, it’s time to really start paying attention again and put Hiura back on your draft lists as a late-round target.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)
Q2. Who has seen their fantasy stock fall the most for you based on spring training?
Jack Flaherty (SP – STL)
“Jack Flaherty is one of my guys, so this one stings. He got off to a strong start last season but then got hurt while batting because the National League was still clinging to antiquated traditions. He returned from an oblique injury he suffered while hitting and almost immediately hit the injured list again with a shoulder strain. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA over 61 innings in the first half of 2021 but threw just 16 1/3 innings in the second half of the season. Unfortunately, he’s dealing with another injury this spring. Flaherty recently received a PRP injection Friday to address a small tear and could be sidelined until mid-May. In a year where the so-called ‘middle tiers’ of starting pitchers appear to be as deep as they have been in years, it’s probably best to avoid Flaherty in drafts unless he falls into the later rounds.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Gavin Lux (2B/SS/OF – LAD)
“As much as it pains me to say this, the answer for me is Gavin Lux. With the Dodgers’ blockbuster acquisition of Freddie Freeman, the talent-laden Dodgers lineup simply does not have a place for Lux to play regularly. Lux is also hitting just 1-for-11 ( .091) so far this spring, so he isn’t doing himself any favors either. Assuming Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Chris Taylor are playing regularly, that leaves Lux to essentially platoon with right-handed hitting A.J. Pollock, which would leave Lux on the shorter end of that platoon. As much as I believe in his talent, it appears that Lux is going to need an injury or trade in order to deliver draft-worthy fantasy production in 2022.”
– Lucas Spence (Pitcher List)
Brandon Marsh (OF – LAA)
“The obvious answer would be Cody Bellinger. Woof! But let’s look across town at young Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh. Marsh is the lefty-swinging, stocky, and swift converted football player who is supposed to tandem with phenom Jo Adell for the next decade. This is supposed to be Marsh’s first legit chance at locking down an everyday role, but so far he has struck out 11 times in 22 at-bats. Yes, he has six hits and sports a .273 BA, and he’s pumped one long ball while swiping two bags, but this current profile iooks to be flirting with the edge. I still like the player long-term, but I’m raising a cautious eye.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)
Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD)
“I’m entirely out on Cody Bellinger. I entered the spring with an open mind. However, as the kids say, Bellinger’s spring isn’t it. He’s struck out in an eye-popping 15 of 23 plate appearances. Perhaps equally alarmingly, he has recorded only three hits, and all have been singles. That’s a big yikes.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
Lance McCullers (SP – HOU)
“Lance McCullers NOT pitching this spring has really crushed his draft value. McCullers had a breakout ’21 season and showed ace-like potential. Now, this flexor tendon strain puts his whole ’22 season in jeopardy. Heading into the year, he was one of my favorite pitchers who could develop into a true fantasy No. 1. Unfortunately, his injured spring has taken him off my draft board almost completely.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
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Thank you to all the experts for naming their spring training risers and fallers. Please be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our podcast, which is also available below.
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