All things are back to normal in the post-lockout baseball world! Spring training is fully underway and all of the biggest dominoes have already fallen in baseball’s free agency period. The scope and shock of the deals we saw this month certainly surpassed what we saw late last year. We witnessed the likes of Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon, Josh Donaldson and Sonny Gray, among many others, change jerseys. Now that this crazy shakeup is mostly in the rearview as clubs prep for the season, we can finally take a true look at examining who stands to benefit or lose out from a fantasy perspective — and that’s precisely what our featured pundits strive to do today. Keep reading to see who they think the winners and losers were from this wild and zany free-agent period.
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Q1. What player has seen his fantasy value increase the most as a result of a recent transaction?
Kris Bryant (1B/3B/OF – COL)
“Bryant signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Colorado Rockies this offseason, providing an instant boost to his fantasy value. He is coming off a solid 2021 season where he slashed .265/.353/.481 with 25 home runs across 586 plate appearances. The move to Coors Field should increase both his power and batting average, possibly to 2019 levels – .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs. Bryant’s ADP has been steadily rising and should continue to do so during the final weeks of the draft season. If you’re lucky enough to draft him, enjoy the ride!”
– Lauren Auerbach (Fantrax)
“Since March Madness is in full effect, I’ll go ahead and take the layup here: Kris Bryant to Colorado. Baseball Savant’s park factor put Colorado as the most hitter-friendly park by a significant margin, an improvement over the friendly confines of Wrigley field, which ranked as the 21st best place to hit from 2019-21. While Bryant has struggled to really match the MVP season of his early career, a productive 30-homer, 100-RBI bat has emerged that will continue to fill up the stat sheet in the Mile High City.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)
“The obvious answer here is Kris Bryant after signing with the Rockies. Despite having a couple of down seasons for a Cubs team that just seemed like they weren’t into it, he is still a very talented hitter. He just needed to find a good landing spot to raise his value and that he did. Yes, the lineup around him isn’t great, but being able to play half your games in Coors is never a bad thing. He is now right there in the Austin Riley and Nolan Arenado range for 3B.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Matt Olson (1B – ATL)
“Olson leaving Oakland for Atlanta is my favorite upgrade. Not only is he spending the next few years of his career in a better hitter environment, but he’s also surrounded by All-Star lineup protection from the likes of Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. It’s hard to imagine a better year than Olson’s 2021 campaign, but all these factors make last year’s new high water mark more sustainable.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Sonny Gray (SP – MIN)
“There are a couple of bats that could answer this question, but for me, the winner is Sonny Gray. He leaves one of the worst ballparks in baseball to pitch in a more neutral ballpark. Gray also leaves one of the worst defenses in baseball to a much better defense in Minnesota. If Gray can stay healthy, he should be in line for a much better season in 2022 with the Twins.”
– Brian Entrekin (Fantasy Sports Degens)
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Q2. What player has seen his fantasy value decrease the most as a result of a recent transaction?
Will Smith (RP – ATL)
“Will Smith of the Braves takes a tremendous fantasy hit with the addition of Kenley Jansen. Smith was lined up to close for the Braves once again in 2022 and that has quickly been put to a halt thanks to Jansen. Smith saved 37 games for the Braves last season and saved 34 for the Giants in 2019. He now becomes one of the better set-up arms in baseball, but his fantasy value in a standard 5×5 league has gone up in smoke.”
– Brian Entrekin (Fantasy Sports Degens)
“Will Smith’s fantasy value took a significant hit with the recent Kenley Jansen signing. Jansen’s one-year, $16 million contract assured him the closing role in Atlanta and shifted Smith – the team’s 2021 closer – to a setup role. Not surprisingly, Smith’s fantasy value quickly plummeted. Prior to Jansen’s signing, Smith was the 10th reliever off draft boards according to NFBC OC ADP since February 1. But after losing the closing job, Smith has dropped to the 25th reliever – a drop that could continue throughout the draft season.”
– Lauren Auerbach (Fantrax)
Tylor Megill (SP – NYM)
“Will Smith is probably the easy answer here with Kenley Jansen likely usurping the closer role in Atlanta, but I am going to stay in the NL East to lament the loss in opportunity for 26-year-old Mets right-hander Tylor Megill. For those scraping the wire in deep leagues, Megill’s 99 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched offered a solid volume boost in 2021 and while his 4.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP were not super helpful for roto players, his strong 19.0 K-BB% points to a skill set that can help fantasy owners in the long run. The recent acquisition of Chris Bassitt likely pushed Megill out of the Opening Day rotation and while plenty of injury risk remains ahead of him in New York, the depth chart certainly dumps a big old bucket of cold water on the prospects of a Megill breakout in 2022.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)
Jesse Winker (OF – SEA)
“I don’t love the move of Winker and Eugenio Suarez from the Reds to the Mariners. Winker’s power really emerged last season, so this move is particularly bad for him. His 24 HRs were the best total yet for a player who’s been more of a contact guy in his career. Leaving Cincinnati is not a positive for his power ceiling and he hit just .177 vs. LHPs last year. He could be a huge bust in 2022.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Gio Urshela (3B/SS – MIN)
“Not a sexy name, but Urshela stands out to me. He was once thought of as a player who was going to see plenty of playing time in the Yankees’ infield. Even after the trade to Minnesota, there was hope the value was still going to be there, especially with some upside as a CI/MI eligible player. Now after the Carlos Correa signing in Minnesota, there is a lot more to worry about. He may be stuck at 3B, which he will have to share with Miguel Sano and the up-and-coming Jose Miranda. Earlier this month, Urshela was overall going late in drafts, but his minimum ADP was around 160, now his minimum is closer to 220. Maybe he is still worth a late-round pick, but there is a lot more risk now with him.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Thank you to the experts for sharing their MLB free agency winners and losers. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more advice all season and check out our latest podcast below.
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