Nothing kicks off the start of a brand new football season better than NFL free agency, which is sure to involve plenty of player movement. Teams have already placed the franchise tag on several key fantasy free agents and blockbuster quarterback trades have transpired.
Case in point, Russell Wilson is Denver Bronco and Carson Wentz is a Washington Commander. The NFL never ceases to provide entertainment for all 365 days of the calendar year.
And I don’t expect the NFL offseason craze to stagger anytime soon with free agency officially kicking off March 16th. But chances are that deals will be in place with the legal tampering period starting March 14th at 12pm ET.
So grab your popcorn and get ready for the free agency frenzy with the 2022 free agency primer. I’ll break down the most notable impending free agents across the four major fantasy positions – with some potential trade/cut candidates to widen the scope – through the lens of fantasy football to prepare you for the ensuing March madness.
This primer should also help you make optimal trades in your dynasty leagues before the chaos occurs.
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Wide Receivers
Notable Franchise Tags: Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams (re-signed)
What happened to Allen Robinson in 2021? The once quarterback-proof wide receiver saw his production crater due to a combination of lackluster quarterback play, nagging injuries, and the emergence of second-year wide receiver Darnell Mooney.
The results were abysmal, as Robinson had just one game as a top-36 fantasy WR. Woof.
I would like to blame Robinson’s 2021 campaign solely on outside factors – he had the third-lowest catchable target percentage (59%) – but the veteran wide receiver does have to shoulder some responsibility. After all, Mooney was able to break out amid the same situation, which is not a good sign for A-Rob.
Part of the reason comes down to Robinson being more of a contest-catch receiver rather than an elite separator. He finished in the 12th percentile in separation rate in 2021, while Mooney finished in the 73rd percentile.
The big-bodied X wide receiver is a dying breed in the NFL, so Robinson’s landing spot is critical. He needs to play with a quarterback who isn’t afraid to target him downfield in tight coverage. That, along with playing in a more pass-heavy offense in general, is his path for recapturing his fantasy WR1 status. Let’s not forget that Robinson was the only player to command 150-plus targets in both 2019 and 2020.
The soon-to-be 29-year-old wide receiver will be coveted for WR-needy teams in free agency, with many of the top names returning to their original teams. The New England Patriots have manifested themselves as one of the top landing spots for the former All-Pro wideout, to pair him alongside their second-year signal-caller in Mac Jones.
Jones would be the highest-graded quarterback per PFF that Robinson would catch passes from in his entire NFL career.
2021 – Dalton: 67.1 (26th) ?
2022 – Mac Jones: 80.4 (11th) ? https://t.co/TTVXwzdsIx— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 10, 2022
As for Mooney, he is a star in the making. The second-year receiver looks primed to be the team’s No. 1 pass-catcher once Robinson departs in free agency. He has already operated as the team’s No. 1 for the majority of this season, ranking as the WR27 in half-point fantasy scoring through 17 weeks. Mooney also finished the last four weeks of the season ninth in target share (27%) and fifth in route participation (95%).’
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
Cedrick Wilson (WR – DAL)
Cedrick Wilson was an absolute monster filling in for Michael Gallup, commanding at least five targets in each of his last seven starts. He capped off his stellar 2021 season with five catches for 62 receiving yards on 10 targets during wild-card weekend. The Boise State product finished 20th in yards per route run (1.95) dating back to Week 8.
Wilson’s high-end play is sure to make him a factor in real-life roster construction for the Dallas Cowboys. Both he and Gallup are free agents this offseason, so early in the offseason it seemed like Dallas would be unable to retain them both.
However, with Amari Cooper reported to be released or traded, the likelihood the Cowboys bring back both guys has increased substantially. Specifically Gallup, who is already close to signing a new deal despite a late-season torn ACL injury.
The 2018 third-rounder averaged just 10.2 fantasy points per game in 2021 (47th), less than his 2020 season (10.8). His best season to date came in 2019 when he operated as the clear 1B alongside Cooper as the WR16 in half-point scoring per game. He’d likely operate on the outside opposite CeeDee Lamb when fully recovered from his injury.
He’s being drafted at his stone-cold floor with a WR47 best-ball ADP.
Amari Cooper is set to find a new home in 2022, with Dallas unable to take on his $22 million cap hit. He’s arguably the best wide receiver set to be a free agent in 2022 after finishing last season 29th in PPR per game (13.5), which is in line with his career average (14.0).
His nine touchdowns were a career-high, but he was volatile as ever on a weekly basis. Cooper finished as a top-10 fantasy WR thrice, but outside WR3 territory in nine other contests. Part of his boom-or-bust nature was due to the high target competition in Dallas – Cooper commanded just a 15% target share.
There is hope that he can provide a higher floor if he ends up somewhere as the clear alpha. But if it’s a more anemic offense, the “boom” games won’t likely be as prevalent.
I won’t go out of my way to draft Cooper this summer in best ball drafts unless he falls substantially in ADP based on his new landing spot. Teams that have a need for WR with the requisite cap space for Cooper include Indianapolis, Miami, Jets, Browns, Raiders, Eagles, and Patriots.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
JuJu Smith-Schuster averaged 32 receiving yards and just under four receptions per game through the first four weeks of the season before going down with an injury in Week 5. He made an admirable return for the Steelers’ playoff game, but it made no difference, with the Chiefs winning 42-21.
The latest reports from Smith-Schuster’s camp suggest that he’ll return to the black and yellow for 2022 or potentially join Kansas City. The Chiefs were interested in him last season, and that landing spot would be enough to easily revive Smith-Schuster’s fantasy stock. He’s just one year removed from a WR17 finish in PPR between two injury-plagued seasons.
Let’s not forget JuJu had an elite sophomore campaign – 1,400-plus receiving yards – and he is still just 25 years old. I’d be buying him in dynasty with the hope he finds a way to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes in the near future. KC is going to be in the market for a wide receiver regardless with both Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson impending free agents.
Christian Kirk could not have picked a better season to have a career year. He set highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83) and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the gap left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins.
Without Hopkins in the lineup, Kirk commanded a 21% target share and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game – good for WR29 on the season.
Missing the team’s No.1 wide receiver played an integral part in the fourth-year breakout, but Kirk’s move back inside was also a contributing factor. He ran 78% of his routes and finished with the second-most receiving yards from the slot.
Wherever he ends up in 2022, the team needs to put him in the slot if he’s going to maximize his fantasy ceiling.
A few takeaways from my time at the NFL combine this week:
– The Cardinals aren’t taking trade calls for Kyler Murray.
– It doesn’t sound like Chandler Jones will be a Cardinal in 2022.
– It sounds like Christian Kirk will have a hot market in free agency.— Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) March 2, 2022
Teams that come to mind that may need a slot include the Colts, Bills, Browns, Bears, Steelers, Jaguars and Jets.
The one-year, $10.6 million contract Will Fuller signed with the Miami Dolphins this past offseason did not go according to plan for any party involved. Fuller battled through injuries – as he often does- and finished the season with just four catches for 26 yards.
The big-play wideout did nothing to boost his free agency stock after 2021 but will likely be added by someone with hopes he can regain 2020 form. He finished as PFF’s 10th-highest-graded wide receiver that season and was ninth in yards per route run (2.28) and eighth in fantasy points per game (17.2).
The most desirable scenario is that Fuller goes wherever Deshaun Watson ends up, which would be the ideal outcome for fantasy football.
Teams looking for a big-play threat with speed might opt to go younger than Fuller and look hard at 25-year-old D.J. Chark Jr. The former LSU Tiger played in just four games in 2021 after suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
With only one season with a PFF receiving grade above 75.0 on his resume, Chark won’t command WR1 money on the open market, but he has untapped fantasy potential if he lands somewhere with a solid quarterback. Up to this point in his NFL career, he has yet to play with any established signal-caller.
Only nine of his 22 targets were deemed catchable in 2021 (41%). Had Chark stayed healthy for the whole season, fantasy gamers could have seen him carve out production that went to fellow free agent Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 – 64 per game.
Just two seasons removed from WR17 in fantasy points per game, Chark will have his fair share of suitors on the open market if he doesn’t re-sign with the Jaguars.
Keep an eye out for #Jags’ FA WR DJ Chark. Spoken with 3 teams already who are prepared to recruit/pay legit $$$ to sign him. 2019 Pro Bowler is only 25 years old and possesses a diverse skillset. “We like him a lot,” a GM told me. “He’s only going to get better too.”
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 4, 2022
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB)
The Green Bay Packers field-stretcher has been a hot-name among the 2022 wide receiver free agency class, drawing interest from the Chicago Bears. It’s a bit off that MVS is generating so much buzz considering he is coming off an injury-plagued down season.
But even so, NFL teams salivate over the big-play ability that Valdes-Scantling can offer – top-5 in yards per catch the last two seasons – so he will get a job somewhere.
However, departing from Aaron Rodgers will almost certainly result in a downgrade at quarterback for MVS. His boom-or-bust fantasy WR3 days are far from over.
Russell Gage is a tough wide receiver to rank in 2022. He undoubtedly made strides as a receiver, posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside.
He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11, showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts. With Calvin Ridley suspended for the 2022 season, Atlanta may dish out a pretty penny to keep Gage around as its pseudo WR1, as he is set to hit free agency in 2022.
Should Antonio Brown get another shot in the NFL? Probably not. Will he? Yup. NFL teams try to avoid headache players when everything is fine, but their hands are forced when injuries happen.
It’s hardly a stretch saying the 33-year old Brown doesn’t deserve to be on a team speaking strictly in between the lines of the football field. AB is still elite as ever at getting open, as demonstrated by his 31% target rate per route run equal to that of only Cooper Kupp.
Brown was a monster fantasy producer on the field, finishing eighth in fantasy points per game (17.3) in seven appearances. That was superior to Mike Evans and Keenan Allen.
AB claims to be interested in joining either the Cowboys or Ravens this offseason.
Let OBJ’s resurgence with the Rams be a reminder that a situation can tank a wide receiver’s stats. Case in point: Beckham owned the second-worst catchable target rate in the league since joining the Cleveland Browns. Of course, his numbers weren’t great.
Don't bury the lead
Since Odell Beckham Jr. joined the #Browns in 2019 only 62% of his targets have been deemed catchable.
That ranks 62nd out of 62 qualifying receivers with at least 200 targets the past 3 seasons….
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 5, 2021
But as a Ram, Beckham was PFF’s 33rd-graded wide receiver (72.2), averaging a 19% target share and 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round. OBJ had his best game with the Rams in the NFC title game, hauling in nine of 11 targets for 113 receiving yards (24% target share).
And he looked well on his way to another massive game in the Super Bowl after catching two passes for 52 yards and one score in the first half alone. Unfortunately for Beckham, he tore his ACL – tanking his free agency stock.
It’s reported that OBJ will re-sign with the Rams, which makes the most sense for both parties involved. Beckham won’t be ready for the start of the season based on the timing of his injury, and, L.A. has the depth at wide receiver to combat his missed time.
That should open the door for Van Jefferson to take on a larger role in Year 3 to start the year after he finished 20th in route participation (86%).
Braxton Berrios ran a route on 88% of the Jets’ dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share in Jamison Crowder‘s absence in Week 16. The plucky Berrios stepped up again with Crowder out in Week 17, commanding a 35% target share without even leading the New York Jets in routes run. He finished the day catching eight of 12 targets for 65 yards to go along with two touchdowns (one rushing and receiving).
He’s worthy of a dynasty stash because of his ability to command targets at a high rate: Berrios’ 24% target rate per route run over the last two seasons ranks 14th among WRs with at least 100 targets. Returning to New York could easily be in the cards for Berrios with both Crowder and Keelan Cole on the way out as free agents.
General manager Joe Douglas has been vocal about keeping guys that do things the right way like Berrios.
The removal of those other ancillary pieces should also stabilize production for Elijah Moore, who flashed talent as a rookie. The Ole Miss product earned the league’s 13th-highest target rate (24%) when on the field in 2021. It’s a great feat for a first-year player and bodes extremely well for him as he heads into his second season.
Fantasy gamers were almost robbed of Gabriel Davis‘ second-year breakout because the team elected to play veteran Emmanuel Sanders over him. They eventually saw the error of their ways and unleashed Davis from Week 14 onward.
The second-year wideout averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last five games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks.
As a strong bet to earn the No. 2 wide receiver job come opening day, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a reliable fantasy option in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022. Despite being a part-time player only the last two seasons, the former UCF Knight ranks top-5 in the NFL in total end-zone targets.
McKenzie also flashed big-time upside in his solo spot start for Buffalo in Week 16 versus the Patriots. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 125 receiving yards and one touchdown. It also wasn’t the first time McKenzie had stepped up in Cole Beasley‘s absence.
In Week 17 of the 2020 season, he put up an equally impressive outing with six catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns.
Buffalo has granted Beasley permission to seek a trade, so clearly, the writing’s on the wall that they are ready to find a new slot man. In most scenarios, that guy is McKenzie.
Zay Jones played better than second-year receiver Bryan Edwards, which is a good sign heading into 2022. He’s a free agent at just 27 years old and likely will get a solid payday for his impressive play down the stretch.
Jones averaged a 25% target share and 15.4 expected fantasy points per game in the team’s final five games. He also led the team in total air yards (1,136).
Just be wary that he might fall victim to the Raiders drafting a wide receiver in the upcoming draft.
The Saints are shaping up to be a dumpster fire in 2022. With Sean Payton retiring, salary cap hell imminent, key player overhaul and quarterback concerns, it’s hard to expect any kind of fantasy goodness from this team.
Free agent Tre’Quan Smith has never lived up to his Round 3 draft pedigree, with his career featuring many more lowlights than highlights. The former UCF standout has never had a PFF receiving grade above 68.0 in four NFL seasons.
Nevertheless, his departure in free agency could move restricted free agent Deonte Harris into a full-time role alongside Marquez Callaway and Michael Thomas.
Harris saw an extremely high target rate per route run this season (27%) and finished sixth in both PFF receiving grade (86.8) and yards per route run (2.69).
Running Backs
Cordarelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Nobody saw the Patterson ninth-year breakout coming. Unless, of course, you foresaw ex-Chicago Bears passing game coordinator Dave Ragone coming in as the Atlanta Falcons’ new offensive coordinator just to install Patterson in a hybrid RB/WR role.
For most of the season, fantasy football’s RB7 was a revelation and a player who changed the tide of leagues as a waiver-wire acquisition.
Patterson’s only issue is that he stumbled across the fantasy football finish line, failing to eclipse more than nine fantasy points or 30 rushing yards in his last four games. The team also used him more in a committee alongside Mike Davis.
Nonetheless, the more bizarre part is that Patterson took a backseat in the receiving game despite his wide receiver background, totaling just seven targets in his final four games after averaging nearly five targets per game. Patterson’s 25% target rate per route ranked No. 1 among all running backs.
Still, even with the poor end to the season, Patterson’s best free agency fit for fantasy would be returning to Atlanta. He is such a specialized talent who needs to be used in a particular manner, which was executed to near perfection under Arthur Smith’s tutelage.
However, the Falcons’ current salary cap situation – 27th in available cap space – doesn’t exactly enthrall confidence that they will be able to re-sign the 31-year old running back. With so many holes on the roster, it would be malpractice for the Falcons to overpay for Patterson.
There’s a chance that Patterson will sign with another team this offseason, which does not bode well for him to produce anything close to his 2021 season even if he does reclaim a notable receiving role.
Coaches sign players to big contracts with high hopes that don’t always pan out(i.e. Kenny Golladay and Jonnu Smith).
Without Patterson, Davis, Qadree Ollison, and Caleb Huntley round out the running back room. The Falcons should add more bodies to their backfield in free agency and the 2022 NFL Draft. Davis graded as PFF’s third-worst running back in 2021.
Nobody has a wider range of outcomes than Leonard Fournette in 2022. If he returns to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a modest contract, there’s no doubt that he will be the entrenched starter. But that doesn’t seem likely based on his latest Instagram post.
This is free agent running back Leonard Fournette on Instagram, and it seems like he’s talking about his time with Bucs in the past tense. pic.twitter.com/dxUK7iULKY
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) March 9, 2022
Still, it’s important to note how great Fournette was in 2021 to project him going forward.
Fournette ranked fifth in fantasy points and fourth in expected fantasy points per game before his Week 15 injury, leading all running in receptions (62). Upon his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers’ playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Fournette reclaimed bell-cow duties, playing 86% of the Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps to go with 22 touches for 107 yards from scrimmage.
With an all-encompassing skill set at just 27 years old, Fournette just needs to land a starting gig somewhere to return a top-20 running back fantasy appeal. Some potential landing spots for Lombardi Lenny include Buffalo, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, and Seattle.
The Eagles current personnel executive David Caldwell was the general manager for the Jaguars when they selected Fournette fourth overall in 2017.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the only Buccaneers running back under contract for next season – Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard are both free agents – so he has interesting dynasty appeal if he remains the last man standing. If that happens, Vaughn would likely fall into the fantasy RB2 conversation.
Jones took a major step backward in 2021, being regulated to strict backup duties after losing out on the starting gig. And even when loaded to take on the bell-cow role with Fournette sidelined during the end of the season, RoJo failed to fire.
He earned 20 carries in Week 16 versus the Panthers but totaled just 65 yards. Jones is a one-dimensional grinder back, whose fantasy value will be super reliant on carry-volume, offensive line play, and overall offensive efficiency.
James Conner (RB – ARI)
Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI)
James Conner rounds out the 2021 running back trio, alongside Fournette and Patterson, that changed the fantasy football landscape in 2021, as each player delivered a top-10 running back season at a fraction of their draft-day cost.
I should have acknowledged that Conner had top-10 fantasy RB potential considering he already has a top-end fantasy season on his resume (RB7, 2018).
The ex-Pittsburgh Steeler was the perfect running back to target in the mid-to-later rounds because he had a real shot of carving out a role as the Arizona goal-line back. That’s exactly how things shook out, as Conner finished the 2021 season tied for second in goal-line carries and third in touchdowns (18).
Conner even received extensive work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds out of the lineup from Weeks 9-14 and Week 18. In those six games, Conner averaged 26.2 fantasy points and 5.5 targets per game while running a route on 61% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks. Conner’s route participation would have ranked second among all running backs in 2021 (behind Najee Harris, 66%).
His receiving game prowess – PFF’s fourth-highest graded receiving running back – along with capable depth in Jonathan Ward and Eno Benjamin may make Edmonds the more expendable of the top two Cardinals free-agent backs.
Through four seasons, Edmonds has yet to cement himself as a true three-down back due to durability concerns, as he missed seven games this past season. When healthy, there’s no denying that Edmonds can be a viable fantasy option because of his receiving and explosiveness.
His five yards per carry (eighth) and spot-start usage/production in Weeks 16-17 without Conner in the lineup – 23.9 expected fantasy points per game – showcases a running back who can deliver massive fantasy upside any given week.
Ideally, for fantasy purposes, only one of Conner/Edmonds returns to Arizona, as it will provide fantasy managers with another locked-and-loaded fantasy RB1 to draft.
That makes them both best-ball values with ADPs outside the top-28 running backs on Underdog ADP. I’d bet on Conner returning and Edmonds walking to another team as a pass-catching back.
Edmonds’ departure also opens the door for Eno Benjamin to carve out a role as the No. 2 runner in the Cardinals backfield as the team’s only running back currently under contract.
Sony Michel’s 2021 season is less about him and more about Cam Akers. Not to discredit Michel for a season in which he ranked third in rushing yards and first in carries over the final six weeks, as he performed admirably in relief of Darrell Henderson Jr., but he was immediately supplanted by Akers once the second-year back was deemed healthy enough to play a full-time role.
In the Rams’ divisional playoff win versus the Buccaneers, Akers played 81% of the Los Angeles’ offensive snaps and out-touched Michel 27 to 3.
Sean McVay’s one-RB offense has been consistent all season, as the team’s lead back has averaged north of 20 touches per game.
Akers appears to be dialed in for that role in 2022 and beyond while Michel will probably be looking for work elsewhere. Just be aware that Michel’s counting stats from the 2021 season are heavily boosted by him playing a highly-coveted role in the Rams’ offense.
There’s no guarantee that role exists on his new team in 2022.
Only two rookie running backs finished inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th).
The fact that Williams was able to carve out such a large receiving role as a rookie while also working in tandem with Melvin Gordon demonstrates his sky-high ceiling. We got a glimpse of his potential when he scored 27 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs without Gordon in the lineup. Williams also finished second in forced missed tackles and first in missed tackles forced per attempt (31%).
If Gordon is not retained by the Denver Broncos – not so certain with the recent acquisition of Russell Wilson – Williams is a lock first-rounder in 2022 fantasy football drafts and would skyrocket further up dynasty rankings.
My brother 4 Life….. let's see how this turn out https://t.co/YHSW6UtXVU
— F L ⚡️ S H (@Melvingordon25) March 8, 2022
The thought of Williams playing a three-down role is salivating but don’t let his increased role make you overlook MG3’s seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
Gordon is bound to be written off by fantasy draft pundits this offseason due to his age, but he proved that he still has gas in the tank in 2021. If he lands on a high-powered offense and has the potential to receive goal-line touches, he could easily become a screaming value in 2022 like Conner or Fournette last year.
I will be drafting a lot of Gordon in summer best ball drafts.
No running back boosted their real-life free-agent value or fantasy football stock more than Rashaad Penny to close out the 2021 season. The former first-rounder ran hotter than the sun over the Seahawks’ final five games after taking over the starting gig. He ranked first in PFF rushing grade (91.1), yards after contact per attempt (5.27) and fantasy points scored above expectation (+48.8).
Penny was a full-blown workhorse who averaged 19.4 touches per game and seems primed to garner heavy interest on the open market at just 26 years old. Seattle may try to bring him back, but that may depend on Chris Carson‘s status coming off his neck injury. Carson has never played a full season but is under contract in 2022.
There’s also a question about whether Penny will want to return to a Seattle offense with a rookie quarterback or Drew Lock under center. The face without a mouth emoji says a lot.
?
— Rashaad Penny (@pennyhendrixx) March 9, 2022
But remember, teams aren’t going crazy bidding for veteran running backs in free agency – especially ones that have a long injury track record like Penny. Ultimately, I believe he stays a Seahawk. The hope then becomes that he sees 20-plus touches per game to mitigate the damage of playing in a bottom-10 offense.
Although I have some concerns about Elijah Mitchell‘s job security in 2022, it’s hard to ignore the opportunity he is walking into in 2022. The 49ers’ backfield will be very different next season due to Raheem Mostert, Jeffery Wilson, and JaMycal Hasty hitting the open market this offseason.
That leaves Mitchell as the perceived entrenched bell-cow with 2021 third-rounder Trey Sermon as his primary backup. Unless Mitchell suffers an injury – not unusual for a 49er running back – Sermon probably will stay irrelevant.
The coaches have trusted Mitchell so much during the 49ers’ 2021 postseason run, feeding him 27, 21, 21, 22, 27, 27, 17, and 11 carries in his last eight starts. The rookie has lived up to the lofty workload, averaging 83 rushing yards per game.
But the fact of the matter is that the 49ers look primed to add another veteran back in free agency, and I’ve got major durability concerns with Mitchell. Undersized backs in the 49ers offense constantly get banged up. 80% of Mitchell’s rushing yards came after contact in 2021, so it was not surprising to see him miss six games with the impact his body took.
Mostert is a player favorite of new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, so strongly anticipate him landing in South Beach. He is the RB54 in the current best-ball ADP.
The 49ers are interested in re-signing Raheem Mostert at the right price — it’s clear that they value his NFL-best speed — but he also happens to be one of Mike McDaniel’s favorite players. And Miami has more cap space. My initial read is that’ll be an uphill battle
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) March 3, 2022
James White (RB – NE)
Brandon Bolden (RB – NE)
Crazy stat: Dynasty riser Damien Harris led all running backs during the 2021 regular season in fantasy points per snap. As PFF’s highest-graded running back (91.8) over the past two seasons, Harris needs to be held in extremely high regard. With one more year on his rookie deal, New England has all the incentive to ride Harris for the entire 2022 season.
The best part is that Harris can still be acquired in some leagues at a slight discount because Rhamondre Stevenson‘s hype is so strong. The Stevenson hype will almost undoubtedly keep Harris’ start-up ADP and trade value at below-market costs.
Harris and Stevenson both have a chance to capture a larger receiving role in New England’s passing game because the Patriots incumbent pass-catching backs – White and Bolden – are impending free agents.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire dealt with injuries throughout the season but was mediocre at best when healthy. His rushing efficiency metrics were worse than his rookie season, and he took a back seat to Darrel Williams as the team’s preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield.
The second-year back finished 59th out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-to-last in target rate per route run at the running back position (13%).
And during the postseason, Jerick McKinnon led the backfield over Edwards-Helaire with twice as many touches. Considering both McKinnon and Williams are free agents, I’d presume the Chiefs bring back one of them to pair with Edwards-Helaire in 2022.
McKinnon’s strong playoff performance (14.8 half-point scoring per game) might help him edge out Williams in the pecking order.
Derrick Gore should also be stashed in case neither McKinnon nor Williams returns to KC.
As a restricted free agent, the Cleveland Browns could put a mid-to-high round tender on Johnson to prevent another team from adding him. He is certainly capable of being more than a third-stringer after an extremely impressive 2021 campaign that saw him finish as PFF’s highest-graded rusher (90.6).
Johnson also delivered in his three starts, averaging a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game. He’s a great player to stash in dynasty with the hope that he finds more opportunity in 2022 and beyond.
Kareem Hunt‘s contract ends at the end of the 2022 season, so the Browns could move on from him a year early and elevate Johnson to the No. 2 on the depth chart.
They have till March 16th to place the RFA tenure on Johnson.
Need a cheap starting running back? Look no further than Rex Burkhead, who inked a contract extension with the Texans through the 2022 season. Burkhead is the only running back currently on the active roster because the others are free agents.
Obviously, the Texans will acquire other running backs, but Burkhead’s receiving role – sixth in route participation the last four weeks – does provide fantasy value with a team that projects to be playing from behind.
A reunion between free agent David Johnson and Bruce Arians seems imminent in Tampa Bay with their massive turnover at running back.
Trust Josh Jacobs next season. He smashed career-highs in all receiving categories in 2021, and there’s no reason to think that will go away with third-down running back Jalen Richard potentially out the door.
Josh McDaniels on picking up Raiders RB Josh Jacobs’ 5th-year option pic.twitter.com/lFGfmaCgDl
— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) March 2, 2022
Hopefully, the Chargers make great use of their salary cap space and re-sign Justin Jackson, who proved himself to his team and fantasy managers alike while filling in for Austin Ekeler for the fantasy football playoffs in Week 16 to the tune of 30 fantasy points.
If he signs elsewhere, the offseason debate between Larry Rountree versus Joshua Kelley as the Chargers’ handcuff to draft will rage on. Not something I will look forward to.
Michael Carter was at his best in 2021 when Tevin Coleman missed time. From Weeks 7-9 with the veteran sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share.
The rookie’s receiving numbers are inflated because he had Mike “The Checkdown King” White at quarterback, but nevertheless, the usage suggests Carter leads this backfield in 2022 with Coleman removed from the equation.
Just be cautious because the Jets have a lot of Day 2 draft capital and salary cap space that they could potentially use to add another body to the backfield.
Antonio Gibson‘s strong finish to the season was fueled by J.D. McKissic’s injury. Gibson ran a route on 56% of Washington’s dropbacks and owned a 17% target share in the five games McKissic missed. In the other 12 games, the Memphis product owned an 8% target share and ran a route on 36% of the team’s dropbacks.
It’s clear that Gibson’s path to top-tier usage can be unlocked if the Commanders do not retain McKissic in free agency or add on another pass-catching specialist RB. But alas, it looks like they will end up doing both this offseason.
"The Commanders definitely want J.D. McKissic back, but I could also seeing them going after a running back in the draft. Somewhere in the mid to late rounds," @john_keim on Fantasy Dirt on @SiriusXMFantasy.
— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) March 8, 2022
Quarterbacks
The Saints face major question marks at quarterback. Winston is recovering from an ACL injury, and Taysom Hill is mounting a comeback from a Lisfranc injury.
Hill’s contract makes him difficult to move on from, so he will be back in the Big Easy, but Winston is far from a guarantee. No team has less salary cap space than the Saints, so Winston returning after an underrated 2021 campaign is not a guarantee.
Winston finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career. Turnovers have always been his kryptonite, so the fact that he was able to curb that issue in a critical year bodes well for him as he hits the open market.
The ex-Buc play also translated to fantasy success, as he averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game – good for QB14 on the year. And he performed well with little to no help around him.
His leading receivers were running back Alvin Kamara and wideouts Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris.
New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis appear like the strongest suitors for Winston’s services in 2022 with Washington and Denver set at quarterback.
One former #NFL exec spoke to me about Jameis Winston.
“Everything I’ve heard leads him back to the #Saints. They firmly believe he can be their QB for the next three to four years and compete with him leading the way. However, watch out for the #Steelers as a suitor as well.”
— Evan Massey (@massey_evan) March 5, 2022
Seems like a foregone conclusion that the San Francisco 49ers will start Trey Lance in 2022, and the team will explore trade partners for veteran Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo’s postseason struggles – his 60.7 PFF passing grade ranks last among remaining quarterbacks – are being slightly overblown because he is playing injured. But by doing just enough to help the team progress in the postseason, he is at least making his case for another team to come calling for his services in the offseason.
Jimmy G is sure to garner interest on the quarterback market after finishing second in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.6) this regular season.
That stat is somewhat noisy, as 52% of his passing yards have come after the catch – the eighth-highest mark in the league. However, elite quarterbacks, such as Patrick Mahomes (55%, second) and Aaron Rodgers (53%, sixth), also have more than half their passing yards come after the catch, and nobody is holding that against them.
Garoppolo’s reliance on after-the-catch production also changed drastically from 2020, when it was at an absurd 65%.
The quarterback has done enough this season by leading his team to the NFC Championship game to not only warrant a trade but to be a quarterback upgrade for a team that is desperate for improvement at the position.
In the wake of Carson Wentz being dealt to Washington, Garoppolo has surfaced as his popular replacement for Indy. He’d be a nice fit in an offense predicated on leveraging yards after the catch.
Watson is as good as gone as a member of the Houston Texans. His $35 million base salaries and $40.4 million cap hit are too cost-prohibitive for the team to have him sit out for another season.
The Carolina Panthers seem like the most logical destination – along with hotly-rumored teams like the Steelers, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Vikings.
Acquiring superstar Deshaun Watson is No. 1 on the #Panthers’ wishlist, per a source. As we know, Deshaun has a no-trade clause — but the staff is under immense pressure from owner David Tepper after consecutive five-win seasons. Watson would represent immediate improvement.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 9, 2022
However, a lot of this is speculation based on Watson’s ongoing legal situation and the no-trade clause in his contract. Although some clarity may arise with evidence in the ex-Texans quarterback’s case being discussed in front of a Grand Jury on March 11th.
There’s not much you can do with Watson in dynasty besides hold or buy low, but a manager who has held him throughout the year probably won’t give him up for anything.
What I would do instead is buy players who suffered from poor quarterback play, such as D.J. Moore, to get ahead of their spike in fantasy value before Watson lands somewhere else.
Watson was a top-five fantasy quarterback from 2019 to 2020.
Count me in as one of the analysts who made the mistake of thinking Teddy Bridgewater could support multiple fantasy-viable weapons for the Denver Broncos. In a run-heavy offense, Bridgewater threw for 300 passing yards just twice – none of which came after Week 6 as the team’s schedule started to get more difficult.
His season-long rank as PFF’s 18th-highest-graded quarterback captures his mediocrity well: He is good enough to be in the NFL but not great enough to move the needle in real life or fantasy. It would be different if Denver’s roster wasn’t littered with playmakers, but that’s hardly the case.
None of Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton cracked 10 fantasy points per game with Bridgewater at the helm. Wherever Teddy B ends up in 2022 should be viewed with “meh” expectations.
If there is any quarterback who can go from a backup to a starter in 2022, it’s Marcus Mariota. The dual-threat signal-caller flashed his ability as a rusher with the Las Vegas Raiders the past two seasons, rushing for 175 yards on 18 carries. With rushing quarterbacks all the rage in the NFL nowadays, a team is bound to be interested in the former No. 2 overall pick.
The 28-year-old quarterback filled in admirably for Derek Carr in Week 15 of the 2020 season to the tune of 26 fantasy points.
Make sure he is stashed in all 2QB-formats.
The Giants have emerged as the favorite to land the former UNC star quarterback, with some reports claiming he has a chance to compete with incumbent Daniel Jones for the starting job. The fit in Big Blue makes sense for Trubisky, as it would reunite him with Bills offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll.
Should Trubisky win the job with New York or a starting gig anywhere else, there definitely would be fantasy appeal. The ex-Chicago Bears quarterback finished as the fantasy QB11 in points per game back in 2018 after averaging 30 rushing yards per contest. He subsequently fell off two following seasons, but the skill set for fantasy goodness is there with Trubisky.
Make sure he is not sitting on any dynasty waiver wires, especially in 2QB/Superflex formats.
Ryan Fitzpatrick lasted just 16 snaps this season before suffering a season-ending hip injury in Week 1. The journeyman quarterback won’t return to Washington, but he is bound to generate interest elsewhere.
The 39-year-old can definitely be a stop-gap for teams in quarterback purgatory and will likely end up being an upgrade from the bottom-dwelling starters in the league.
During Fitzmagic’s last real appearance – Weeks 1-6, 2020 – he was the QB8 in fantasy football. He finished the 2020 season as PFF’s 19th-highest graded quarterback.
Tight Ends
Notable Franchise Tags: Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz, David Njoku
Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
O.J. Howard (TE – TB)
PFF’s Ian Hartitz summed up Rob Gronkowski’s future with the Tampa in lieu of Tom Brady‘s retirement to perfection with one single tweet:
When the Bucs ask Gronk if he's going to keep playing without Tom Bradypic.twitter.com/FwNC0eZZjw
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 29, 2022
It fully encapsulates Gronk almost surely not returning to football in 2022. The reason he un-retired in the first place was to hook up with Brady for one last run. With his contract expiring, it seems only a matter of time before the future Hall-of-Fame tight end hangs up his cleats for good.
If he does return, the Bengals and Bills are rumored to be the two top teams in the running for his services.
Gronk’s departure from Tampa also impacts the Buccaneers tight end room massively because it thrusts Cameron Brate in the starting tight end role – the Harvard man is under contract till 2024.
Tampa may try to retain O.J. Howard, but he could opt to go elsewhere after being a complete afterthought in a high-powered offense. At 27 years old, the verdict isn’t really in on Howard, with tight ends not traditionally not firing until their second contract.
Howard has at times performed at an elite level in the NFL – he was PFF’s second-highest-graded tight end in 2018. If he can carve out a bigger role on a new offense,
I am optimistic he can recapture some of the shine from earlier in his career.
Hopefully free agent TE O.J. Howard ends up with a team that will feature him in the passing game. He has 24 games over the past five seasons with at least four targets, and he scored at least 11 PPR points in 17 of them.
— Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg) March 10, 2022
Zach Ertz’s return to form is a reminder there’s value to be had in drafting proven fantasy commodities after they have been written off by the drafting community. It’s a major takeaway I’ve had while constructing my 2022 rankings for all the positions: Finishing top-12 or even top-five at each respective position should be held higher when it comes to ranking players going forward. They’ve done it before.
That approach would have led you to be overweight on Ertz in 2021, as the veteran was at the forefront of trade discussions all summer. He didn’t end up getting moved until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production after the trade was more than worth six weeks of meh fantasy production.
The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth) and 12.6 expected fantasy points per game (fifth). He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks.
Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, so his high-end production likely won’t continue with Hopkins healthy. However, the fact he earned the trust of the coaches and Kyler Murray to be a target hog in the Cardinals offense from the get-go bodes well for him to be a back-end fantasy TE1 if he returns to Arizona.
Lord knows the Cardinals need to make some moves at the position with Ertz, Maxx Williams, Darrell Daniels, and Demetrius Harris all free agents.
Tyler Conklin is an impending free agent who should be looking to capitalize financially on a career year. He posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy.
A potential destination spot for Conklin is the tight end-needy Tennessee Titans. He has ties with current Titans OC Todd Downing. If he signs a contract with Minnesota, he should be targeted over Irv Smith Jr. for fantasy.
If not, ISJ becomes the go-to target for fantasy as the TE1 in the Vikings offense. The 23-year-old tight end took a massive leap forward in 2020, finishing 12th in PFF receiving grade (75.4) and seventh in yards per reception (12.2).
If he inherits Conklin’s vacated role – ninth in route participation – he will turn heads in 2022 coming off a lost 2021 season due to injury.
I was waiting with bated breath to see how Seattle would address their tight end room this offseason. Both Gerald Everett and Will Dissly are free agents, vacating a solid role in the offense.
Everett was solid during stretches of the season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE8 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
But an Everett comeback seems remote after the Seahawks acquired Noah Fant as part of the Russell Wilson trade. Fant will experience some spike fantasy weeks because of how the position is deployed within the Shane Waldron offense.
As for Everett in his pursuit for another contract, he proved he could be a featured No. 1 tight end in an NFL offense. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch – sixth-most among tight ends.
Evan Engram needs a refresh to his NFL career. His PFF receiving grade has continued to decline over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 – 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.
Engram hasn’t underwhelmed due to lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to the likes of Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard.
Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run.
Even so, Engram will have his suitors in free agency after being a hot trade target during the 2020 offseason. With 4.4 wheels and desirable athletic size as a receiving tight end, he possesses the tools to be fantasy-viable at the position.
A day after several TEs got franchise tags, one note: Teams have been inquiring about Evan Engram of the #Giants as a slot WR, as well as TE. They believe he’s a match-up problem as a WR, which adds to his value in free agency.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 9, 2022
He just needs new head coach Brian Daboll to drastically improve the New York Giants offense in 2022 or land on a new offense that is above average.
I actually don’t hate the fit of Engram sticking around Big Blue if Daboll deploys him in a way similar to that of fellow Ole Miss and current Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox.
With Jack Doyle officially retired, free agent Mo Alie-Cox TE1 szn could finally become a reality. The towering, 6-foot-5 tight end played in three games last season with Doyle limited or inactive. In those games, Big Mac caught eight of 12 passes for 112 yards – 2.04 yards per route run – and two receiving touchdowns.
His big-body type will earn him looks in the red zone among a very barren Indianapolis Colts receiving corps outside of Michael Pittman Jr.
If Alie-Cox opts for life elsewhere, then SMU standout Kylen Granson becomes the sneaky buy across dynasty formats. Granson entered the NFL with an impressive college production profile and looks slated to be a primary pass-catcher for the Colts in 2022 and beyond. As a rookie, he ran 51% of his routes from the slot – the 15th-highest mark at the position.
No tight end should make a bigger third-year leap in 2022 than Cole Kmet, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity because of Jimmy Graham. The veteran is a free agent in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation hardly aligns with his fantasy production – no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Ertz and Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility – something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
C.J. Uzomah’s sprained MCL doesn’t seem severe enough to keep him out of Super Bowl 56, let alone influence his free agency status entering the 2022 offseason – re-injury notwithstanding. The Cincinnati Bengals have the fourth-most cap space available, so retaining the 29-year-old is well within reach.
Uzomah’s 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021 and projects well for him in fantasy moving forward in a Joe Burrow-led offense. Guys on the field that often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring.
The tight end role in Cincy is super important: If Uzomah gets hurt or if the team doesn’t re-sign him, a newcomer should be viewed in high regard for fantasy football. It’s a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points.
No rookie tight end flew up the dynasty rankings more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a top-10 dynasty tight end in Year 1. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back.
Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game seventh). He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks.
When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks – a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That’s the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Next season’s star at the position could easily be found in the form of whomever the Los Angeles Chargers bring in to replace their flurry of free agents in the tight end room.
The team only has former XFL superstar Donald Parham Jr. as an ERFA (exclusive rights free agent) and 2021 third-rounder Tre’ McKitty as in-house options. Parham is a size-speed freak who can move at 6-foot-8, so he would fit the prime breakout candidate mold if he earns the starting gig.
It’s hard to imagine the Chargers won’t go all-in on surrounding Justin Herbert with the best weapons money can buy with a boatload of cap space in the league.
I won’t take victory laps on fading Robert Tonyan after he was lost due to a knee injury, but I will take the W based on his production – or lack thereof – before his season ended. Tonyan posted only two games with over 10 fantasy points and ranked as the TE23 overall and TE29 in fantasy points per game. His ADP was TE9.
The fact he was being drafted in the middle-tier of tight ends was a red flag in its own right, but Tonyan’s unsustainable touchdown rate made him an easy tight end to avoid.
No tight end scored more fantasy points over expected (+52.2) than Big Bob last season, a glaring sign of negative regression. His TDs were likely to come down and he was only targeted on 14.7% of routes – Tonyan busting at ADP was inevitable.
He is sure to be much cheaper in drafts ahead of the 2022 season coming off the injury, so consider me in on him if he leaves Green Bay for another high-powered offense. His nose for finding the end zone will translate to fantasy production in an elite passing attack.
As for what’s leftover in Green Bay, Josiah Deguara is an extremely interesting option and is likely to be completely overlooked. Deguara could be looking at starting tight end duties in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
The former Cincinnati Bearcat has some impressive measurables – 55th percentile 40-yard dash, 77th-percentile vertical jump – so a 2022 breakout is well within his range of outcomes. After all, he has led the Packers tight end room in routes run.
Look for the Titans to make a splash in free agency this offseason at the tight end position. With injuries hitting A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and Derrick Henry in 2021, Tennessee was forced to expand roles for backup tight ends like Firsker/Swaim, but to no avail. Firsker led the way with 34 receptions for 291 receiving yards – worse than his numbers in 2020.
With all three of the team’s tight ends on expiring contracts, expect Tennessee to sign a veteran or address the position in the draft. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing has ties to free agent ends like Tyler Conklin and Jared Cook.
Fire up the Brevin Jordan szn tweets. The Houston Texans tight end enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.
Highest target rate per route last four weeks among TEs (min. 15 targets)
George Kittle – 27% ?
Mark Andrews – 25%
Rob Gronkowski – 24%
Brevin Jordan – 24% ?— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 14, 2021
Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team’s last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown‘s 18 and Auclair’s five. It’s a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with others departing from the position.
It’s easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster receiving corps behind Brandin Cooks.
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