The 2022 NFL Combine is in full swing, and today is the day we’ve waited for. That’s right, players are going to be showing off their speed and throwing around some weight on the bench press. Our analysts are here with their top bets to make on PrizePicks for the 2022 NFL Combine.
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Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Combine Best Bets
Treylon Burks (WR – Arkansas): Over 4.40 seconds 40-yard dash
Burks officially weighed in at 6-2 and 225 pounds. The man is a marvelous specimen, and he’s my No. 1 wide receiver for this class in fantasy and reality. Last year he bullied SEC defenses with 66-1,104-11 receiving and 14-112-1 rushing in 12 games as a true junior.
It’s nearly impossible for a guy that big to put up those kind of offensive numbers in an elite college football conference without being an above-average athlete.
But 4.40 seconds is almost certainly too low of a number for someone of Burks’ size.
Just think about how great Ja’Marr Chase is: He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at his pro day last year at 6-0 and 201 pounds. Pro-day times tend to be faster than combine times, and smaller guys tend to run faster than bigger guys.
Burks’ line basically says: “We think Burks is just as fast as Chase even though he’s two inches taller and 24 pounds heavier.”
I’m skeptical.
I think this line should be 4.495.
Isaiah Spiller (RB – Texas A&M): Under 4.58 seconds 40-yard dash
As of writing, I don’t have an official size measurement, but he’s listed at 6-1 and 215 pounds. Maybe he’ll weigh in a little heavier at the combine, but he also might show up slimmer so he can run as fast as possible.
As a four-star recruit in 2018, he had a verified 4.58-second 40-yard time (albeit at 193 pounds), and normally prospects run faster in their pre-draft workouts than they did as recruits (even with the added weight), thanks to their intensive speed training in preparation for the combine.
A 40 time of 4.58 seconds is likely near the high end of Spiller’s range of outcomes. If I were setting this line, I would’ve put it at 4.525.
Andrew Erickson’s 2022 NFL Combine Best Bets
George Pickens (WR – Georiga): Under 4.55 seconds 40-yard dash
The Georgia Bulldog drew massive attention on the podium after proclaiming he’d shock people and would run anywhere between a 4.3-4.4 in the 40-yard dash. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, George Pickens should zoom under his 4.55 projected time. Pickens’ size and frame are closely comparable to current NFL wide receiver Josh Reynolds, who ran a 4.52 at the NFL Scouting Combine in 2017.
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— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 3, 2022
Cole Turner (TE – Nevada): Under 4.71 seconds 40-yard dash
Players entering the NFL tend to drastically improve their 40 times with the proper training required for the drill. Nevada tight end Cole Turner ran a 4.70 as a high school recruit, making the under the bet to make. He’s a former wide receiver so speed is a large element of his game. His physical stature draws parallels to current and fellow converted tight end, Washington Football Commander Logan Thomas, who ran a 4.61 at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds back in 2014.
A more recent comp is San Jose State tight end, Josh Oliver, now of the Baltimore Ravens. A glorified slot receiver at the college level, Oliver ran 4.63 at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds in 2019.
Derek Brown’s 2022 NFL Combine Best Bets
Charlie Kolar (TE – Iowa State): Under 4.83 seconds 40-yard dash
At the time of writing this, even at Charlie Kolar’s unofficial measurements of 6’6″ 256 lbs, he should blaze the under here. Playing 69.3% of his snaps last season either in the slot or out wide, Kolar finished 12th in yards per route run (among tight ends with 25 or more targets, per PFF). This display of raw athleticism translating to the field, plus the fact that he ran a 4.89 forty-yard dash in high school, makes this an easy under bet.
Rachaad White (RB – Arizona State): Over 4.49 seconds 40-yard dash
Despite being enamored with Rachaad White’s receiving upside in the NFL, this line feels too generous for his 40 time. At 6’0″ 210 lbs, White ranked 169th (out of 200 running backs with 50 or more rushing attempts, per PFF) last year in breakaway run percentage (31.2%). After running behind an offensive line that ranked third in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders last year, this is more of a reflection of White’s long speed. While he should test well in the short area agility drills and run in the mid to high 4.5s, asking him to hit this mark is asking too much.
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