Today’s free agency coverage spans for transactions on March 16 and 17. Spring Training games began today, and baseball is officially back. Over the last several days, the dominos have started to fall with many big-time free agent signings. Several key players remain unsigned, but more players will sign as Spring Training games are beginning. How do the recent signings, trades, and news affect fantasy value? Let’s dive in.
Signings, Trades, and News for Fantasy Baseball
Freddie Freeman: 6-year/$162 million contract with Los Angeles Dodgers
This pains me to write this as a Braves fan, but I am happy Freddie Freeman is going home to California. Freeman will slot in the middle of a Dodgers lineup that might be the best baseball has seen. It’s crazy to me how good this lineup is.
From a value standpoint, I am not sure Freeman moves up much. The Braves lineup was excellent last year, but maybe Freeman sees a few more runs or RBI opportunities. The home park change does benefit Freeman, however. From a home park, Dodger Stadium is a much better home run park for left-handed hitters than Truist Park. Citizens Bank Park is the only true hitters park in the NL East for left-handed hitters. The ballparks in the NL West are much more favorable for lefties. We have not even mentioned that Freeman will play 10 games in Coors Field. I think I just talked myself into valuing Freeman a little higher for 2022.
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Kris Bryant: 7-year/$182 million contract with Colorado Rockies
This move was quite surprising even though it had been rumored. No one knows what Colorado is doing, but for fantasy purposes, who cares. Kris Bryant has seen his value increase more than any baseball player over the last week.
Last season, Bryant hit 25 home runs between his time with the Cubs and Giants. His slash line was .265/.353/.481, and Bryant also chipped in 10 stolen bases. His zone contact rate was the highest rate of his career.
Bryant now moves from Chicago (fairly neutral hitters park) and San Francisco (heavy pitchers park) to the best hitters park in baseball. Bryant should see a significant batting average boost while also a slight uptick in power. He could approach 30 home runs with a .285 or better batting average.
Seiya Suzuki: 5-year/$90 million contract with Chicago Cubs
Of all the big signings, this one was tough to gauge how it would play out. Suzuki had many suitors that fit him. Now that he has signed, there are questions about how his performance will translate to MLB. Last year in NPB, Suzuki slashed .317/.433/.636 with 38 home runs and nine stolen bases in 538 plate appearances.
Some people’s minds may go to Ha-Seong Kim, who moved from the KBO to MLB in 2021. Kim was coming off a season where he hit 30 home runs, stole 23 bases, and had a .306/.397/.524 slash. Suzuki and Kim are different scenarios because they come from two different leagues. The NPB is a higher competition level.
Suzuki has projections that range all over the board. A reasonable expectation in his first year in MLB could be a 25 home runs/five stolen base season. A batting average between .260 and .275 seems like a safe bet. Regardless, Suzuki is a solid draft target for fantasy managers.
Kyle Schwarber: 4-year/$79 million contract with Philadelphia Phillies
There is no denying that Kyle Schwarber has immense power, but does he have the potential to see that power grow even more? In 2019 he hit 38 home runs with the Cubs, and between the Cubs and Red Sox last season, he hit 32 in just 471 plate appearances. Schwarber is moving to a home stadium in Citizens Bank Park that is highly favorable for left-handed hitting.
For 2022, Schwarber could find himself hitting between Harper, Realmuto, and Hoskins, which could be a massive boost for his value. Expect a lot of power, runs, and RBI in 2022.
Eddie Rosario: 2-year/$18 million contract with Atlanta Braves
Eddie Rosario was having a rough year when Cleveland traded him to Atlanta for Pablo Sandoval. After being traded and returning to Atlanta’s lineup, he hit seven home runs with a .274/.333/.579 slash line in 105 plate appearances. He was also the postseason hero that helped lead Atlanta to a World Series Championship. Rosario should be the everyday left fielder for the Braves, and even though some see him in a platoon, the risk is not there. He is a .276 career hitter against left-handed pitching and a .275 career hitter versus right-handed pitching.
Joc Pederson: 1 year/$6 million contract with the San Francisco Giants
Speaking of platoons, Joc Pederson could find himself in one in San Francisco. His platoon splits have improved the Giants fully intend to use in that platoon role. Pederson has fantasy value, but it is much stronger in league with daily lineup changes.
Matt Chapman: traded to Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Chapman is elite in the field but has fallen behind at the plate over several years. His profile still has plenty of power, but Chapman has seen his strikeout rate rise from 21.9 percent in 2019 to 35.5 percent in 2020, back down to 32.5 percent in 2021. His contact rates have dipped significantly.
The good news is that those numbers could have come from his hip injury. He should be fully healthy in 2022, and the ballpark upgrade in Toronto is significant. The Oakland Coliseum is one of the worst hitters parks in baseball, while Rogers Centre plays up home run power. The early returns on Chapman should be telling. If he continues to strike out at a high rate, the improvement in a new lineup will be marginal, but it is possible Chapman could get back the hitter we saw between 2017 and 2019.
Jonathan Villar: 1 year/$6 Million contract with Chicago Cubs
After his 19 home run/62 stolen base season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been a letdown in the fantasy community. He was a bust in 2017 but still hit 11 home runs and stole 23 bases. In fact, in every full season since 2016, Villar has at least 10 home runs and 14 or more stolen bases. Last year, in 505 plate appearances, Villar hit 18 home runs and stole 14 bases.
His ADP does not reflect the kind of performance you can get from Villar. Thanks to his versatility, he could see close to everyday playing time in Chicago. He has played second, third, shortstop, and outfield in his career. It would not be surprising to see a 15 home run/15 stolen base season with a .250 or better average from Villar in 2022. He is a strong buy at ADP.
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Chris Clegg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @RotoClegg.