2022 Fantasy Baseball Primer: Outfield

How you approach outfield depends on the makeup of your team and league. But regardless if you have three or five outfield spots to fill, you want to make sure you leave room at the end of the draft because there will be outfielders available to you that you wish you could have.

Like we have in past years, we’ll be ranking them in tiers for you using Fantasy Pros ADP, breaking down the categories they can help you in.

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2021 Recap

A couple of the biggest standouts from last season were Tyler O’Neill and Jesse Winker. O’Neill, after being known as a player who has massive power and biceps, put together a full season last year and his Statcast page just glows red. The breakout finally happened … or so we think. As for Winker, he boosted his average, lowered his strikeout rate, and he set a new career-high in home runs, runs, and RBIs last season. He’s a darkhorse MVP candidate this year, thought the move to Seattle hurts him a tad.

On the flipside, Victor Robles was once again terrible. He hit .203 with two home runs and eight steals in 107 games. We should probably stop hoping for the breakout that we saw in glimpses of in 2019, but even that was aided by the rabbit ball and low batted-ball data.

If we are looking at an out-of-nowhere guy, let’s talk about Cedric Mullins. Some of us loved him in 2018, but Justin Mason never lost faith in him. He was rewarded to the tune of .291/.360/.518 with 30 home runs and 30 steals.

2022 at a Glance

The first outfielder off the board is Tatís, who probably shouldn’t qualify, but does. He’s followed closely by Juan Soto, who has an ADP of 2.8. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Starling Marte, Luis Robert, Yordan Álvarez, and Aaron Judge round up the outfielders selected in the top 30 picks.

We always want to identify potential breakout players at a position, and there are a few outfielders I have my eye on this year. If Robert counts as a breakout, he’s my first pick. I’m taking him as the MVP this year, but since he’s going so early, let’s shift our focus elsewhere. We’ll talk about Jarred Kelenic first, who disappointed in the big leagues after having a ton of hype around his 2021 debut. Kelenic made substantial changes in the final month, and they showed in the results. He’s a perfect post-hype player who can return top 50 value this year. Kirilloff is my favorite breakout option in all of baseball. He’s dual-eligible, which is great, and also, he was breaking out last year before he injured his wrist. If you look at his batted-ball data, Kirilloff’s metrics took a hit following the injury. He’s in for a big year – if he can just stay healthy for once.

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Grade Legend*

A: A no-doubt stud capable of winning you a category

B: A solid, consistent contributor

C: Won’t lose you the category, but won’t win it, either

D: You can do better here

F: You’re getting NOTHING

(*Grades listed are relative to the position and take positional depth into consideration.)

Tier 1

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Juan Soto	WAS	A+	A+	A+	A+	B-	He’s the best hitter in the game, and he’s the 1.1 in OBP leagues. He’s not a zero in speed, but you want more.

Tier 2

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Bryce Harper	PHI	A-	A+	A+	A+	C+	He’s a first-round pick in OBP leagues. Continues to be underrated somehow.
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	B+	A	A	A	A	If he proves to be ready for Opening Day or soon after, he’s a top-five pick. It sounds like Atlanta is planning on having him DH early.
Mike Trout	LAA	A-	A+	A	A	C	Let’s hope there are elite years left. He’s still great when healthy, but the stolen bases are all but gone.
Mookie Betts	LAD	A	B+	A	A	B	Even a bad year for Betts is a great year for almost everyone else. I’m in for a bounceback, and having him at second base – where eligible – is a fantasy cheat code.
Kyle Tucker	HOU	B	A-	B	B+	B	I think we may be overvaluing Tucker’s stolen base potential a tad. He’s firm second-rounder for me.
Luis Robert	CHW	A	A+	A	A	A	Vlad Jr. is still my favorite player, but while I was all-in on him to take the MVP last year, I’m doing the same with Robert this year.
Yordan Álvarez	HOU	B+	A+	A-	A	D	He’s the perfect person to pair with a speed option in the first round. He’s an elite hitter whose knees aren’t a concern this year.

Tier 3

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Nick Castellanos	PHI	B+	A	A-	A-	D	Philadelphia is a slight park downgrade, but it’s still very hitter friendly. That lineup is amazing and Castellanos is in for a big year.
Aaron Judge	NYY	B+	A+	A	A	C	He’s an elite hitter who walks at a nice clip and can stay healthy. He’s underrated.
Whit Merrifield	KCR	B+	C-	B	C-	A	Still an elite-level steals source who doesn’t hurt you in batting average.
Cedric Mullins	BAL	C+	B-	C+	C	A-	It’s always tough betting on a player after a breakout career season. Can Mullins buck the trend?
Teoscar Hernández	TOR	B-	A	A-	A	B	He’s made tangible changes at the plate to cut down on the strikeout rate.
Starling Marte	NYM	B-	B	A-	C+	A+	He should be a fourth-round pick, not a third. He’s an aging outfielder whose driving force is speed, and he’s dealing with an oblique injury.
George Springer	TOR	B-	A	A	B+	C-	Darkhorse MVP candidate? Yeah, I like the odds in this lineup when healthy.
Randy Arozarena	TB	B	A-	B-	B	A	A solid 2021 campaign proved he’s here to stay. The profile still scares me slightly.
Byron Buxton	MIN	B+	A-	B+	B-	B	He showed what he can do when healthy. A new contract under his belt, let’s hope he can play at least 130 games.
Eloy Jiménez	CHW	B	A-	B	A	D	He’s a young J.D. Martinez, which is a compliment. Could be in the MVP discussion.
Tyler O’Neil	STL	C	A	B	B	B-	I guess we’re all just assuming 2021 is who he is now and not the sketch track record before? He must cut down on the strikeout rate.
Brandon Lowe	TB	C-	B+	B+	A-	C-	It’s always a rollercoaster, but the production is always, always there at the end of the day.
Ketel Marte	ARI	A	B	B+	B-	C-	He’s such a damn good player, and he started off red hot last year before getting hurt. Sign me up.
J.D. Martinez	BOS	B+	B+	B	B+	D	He’s old, but the production is still really, really good. Sign me up at the cost.

Tier 4

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Kris Bryant	COL	B	A	B-	B-	C+	What a landing spot for Bryant in Colorado. Weird, but good to see bad teams make a run for good players. Stock is way up, but you’re playing him at 3B.
Fernando Tatís Jr.	SD	A	A+	A+	A	A	And he’s already hurt. This feels like the right spot for Tatís assuming he can come back and play a little more than half a season.
Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	B+	A+	C+	A-	D-	He hits the ball so damn hard, but there are so many players who can give the same production where you don’t need to worry if they can play half the season.
Christian Yelich	MIL	B	A-	B	B-	B+	It’s just impossible to know how to rank or value Yelich. His floor and ceiling are so far apart.
Cody Bellinger	LAD	C-	A	B-	B-	B	See Yelich, Christian.
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	B+	B+	B-	B	C-	High-floor player, but we treat that like it’s a bad thing because he’s in Pittsburgh.
Mitch Haniger	SEA	C	A	B	B+	C-	Haniger reminded us how good he is when he’s healthy. Buy in 2022.
Tommy Edman	STL	B-	C+	B+	C-	C-	There’s nothing wrong with high-floor players, and Edman’s picture appears beside the term in the dictionary.
Jesse Winker	SEA	B+	B+	B-	B	C	The park move is a downgrade, but I still expect a big year from him. Will the Mariners play him against lefties?
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	D+	A	B+	B	C-	In certain leagues, he’ll be eligible at first base. A great landing spot with a great right-field porch awaits him.

Tier 5

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	C+	B-	B-	B-	C-	I’d have Mountcastle up a tier, but moving the left-field fence back gives me real concerns.
Franmil Reyes	CLE	C	A+	C+	A	C-	Elite, boring power. Comes at a value where he’s OF eligible.
Jared Walsh	LAA	C+	B+	B-	B-	D+	In a fully healthy Angels lineup where everything goes right, Walsh could have a monster year, but he could platoon.
Daulton Varsho	ARI	B-	B-	C	C	B+	He’s this year’s catcher cheat code. You’re drafting him for the speed and playing time.
Austin Meadows	TB	C	B	B	B+	B-	Meadows is a reason to look for speed early because he – and others like him – are available later.
Josh Bell	WAS	B-	B	B-	B-	D	I’ve notoriously been lower on Bell than anyone. I’m fine with him if you wait on the position but I’d rank him at the end of this tier, personally.
Jarred Kelenic	SEA	C-	B	C+	B-	B	If Kelenic didn’t struggle last year, we’d be treating him like we are Bobby Witt. Just saying. I buy the changes in the final month.
Chris Taylor	LAD	C	B-	B	B-	B	The power rebounded in a big way last year. The Dodgers love him, and he’ll play every day in numerous spots. What’s not to like?
Joey Gallo	NYY	F	A+	B+	A	C-	He’s undraftable if it’s not an OBP league. Sorry.
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	B	B-	B-	B-	B+	Suzuki is shooting up the boards now that he has a home in Chicago. Could argue for him being in Tier 4.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	TOR	B	B-	C	C	B-	I like him to replicate 2021’s numbers with room for additional growth.

Tier 6

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Dylan Carlson	STL	C	C	C	C	C-	He was always being overvalued for fantasy purposes. A fine OF3.
Adolis García	TEX	D	B	B-	B	B	We saw the struggles in the second half. Elite defense will keep him in the lineup. Can he adjust to the league?
Alex Verdugo	NYY	A-	C	B-	C	C-	Boring contributor to boost your batting average.
Hunter Renfroe	MIL	C-	A	C+	B	C-	Similar role and production to last year would be a win.
Myles Straw	CLE	C+	D	B-	D+	A	Not a lot of competition for Straw in Cleveland, but I’m out on the profile.
Avisail García	MIA	B	B-	C+	B-	B	I really like García in Miami this year. I wouldn’t hesitate moving him up to the end of Tier 5.
Marcell Ozuna	ATL	C	B-	C+	B-	C-	He shouldn’t be playing baseball.
Michael Conforto	FA	B-	B+	B-	B-	C	We’re forgetting how good of player Conforto is. He’s a Tier 3 or 4 player. Great value here.
Alex Kirilloff	MIN	B+	B-	C	B-	C-	I’ll take all the shares of Kirilloff. Wrist injury screwed him up last year. Great profile before the injury.
Robbie Grossman	DET	C-	B-	B	C	B	Was quietly really, really good last year. Insane boost in OBP leagues.
Jorge Soler	MIA	D+	A	C+	B	D	Miami is a fun landing spot, but not the best park for power. It won’t matter, though. The power plays anywhere.
Eddie Rosario	ATL	C+	B-	C-	C+	B-	Back to Atlanta he goes. Better suited as a strongside platoon bat.
Michael Brantley	HOU	A	C	C	C	C-	I don’t want to say he’s an empty average player, but.
Andrew Benintendi	KCR	B+	B-	C+	B-	B-	I’m back in on Benintendi this year at a nice discount and good peripherals.
Akil Baddoo	DET	C-	B-	B	C+	A-	Why take Arozarena or Jazz Chisholm early when you can take Baddoo late?
Adam Duvall	ATL	C-	A	C-	B+	C	Why take Gallo early when you can take Duvall late?
Charlie Blackmon	COL	B+	C+	C+	C	C-	Blackmon is old. He isn’t dead.
Ian Happ	CHC	C-	B	C+	B-	B-	One of these years we’ll guess right on Happ. One day, folx.
Andrew Vaughn	CHW	C	B-	C+	C	C-	Not reading much into the lackluster rookie debut. Great buy-low candidate.
Jo Adell	LAA	C-	B-	C-	C	B-	Needs to show that he can make more contact. Ceiling is still super high, as we’ve seen early in Spring Training.

Tier 7

Player	Team	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	Notes
Amed Rosario	CLE	B-	C	C+	C-	B	I’m not really sure what the appeal is with Rosario. The best case may be 15/15?
A.J. Pollock	LAD	B	B-	C-	C-	C+	What’s the playing time look like for Pollock this year?
Mark Canha	NYM	C-	C	B-	C	B-	Much more valuable in real life and in points/OBP leagues.
Ramón Laureano	OAK	C	B-	C	C-	B+	He’s suspended to start the year, but can still return value.
Austin Hays	BAL	C	B+	B	C	C	I think I’m out on Hays with the changes in Baltimore.
Gavin Lux	LAD	C-	C-	C	C+	C-	2022 could be now or never for Lux, who actually showed positive growth last year. 70 FV prospects just don’t forget how to play. Could become a super utility guy with they addition of Freddie Freeman.

Others I like outside the top 70: Jesús Sánchez, Dominic Smith, Hunter Dozier, Max Kepler, Joc Pederson, Lane Thomas, Brandon Marsh

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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.

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Michael Waterloo

@MichaelWaterloo

Michael Waterloo is an award-winning fantasy baseball writer with published works at The Athletic, FantasyPros and the Associated Press, among other publications. Prior to launching his fantasy career in 2011, he covered the Pittsburgh Pirates as a traveling beat writer for two years at Pittsburgh Sporting News. He finished as a top-25 most accurate fantasy baseball analyst in 2018, his third straight year rising in the rankings. Michael loves baseball analysis, analytics, his dogs, beer and, of course, his wife.