It is never enjoyable whiffing on a pick in fantasy baseball drafts. Selecting a bust can create a lineup hole or, at least, put you behind the eight-ball in your league. So, of course, it behooves you to avoid landmines in fantasy drafts to the best of your ability. The following three players have red flags that provide me pause, causing me to rank them significantly lower than their average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR).

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Aaron Nola (SP – PHI): 39.2 ADP/39.9 ECR

There’s a clear bull case for buying Aaron Nola’s stock in 2022. According to FanGraphs, out of 79 pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched in 2021, Nola was tied for 17th in xERA (3.37), 11th in xFIP (3.37), eighth in SIERA (3.26), tied for eighth in strikeout rate (29.8 K%), and 26th in WHIP (1.13). Thus, the advanced metrics painted the picture of a top-12 fantasy pitcher.

Unfortunately, the reality was a 4.63 ERA. In addition, there are some concerning underlying issues. Sure, Nola’s 66.8 LOB% was markedly lower than the 2021 league average 72.1 LOB% and his 75.5 LOB% before 2021. So, his LOB% will regress. Still, he’s had issues stranding runners previously, namely with a 60.6 LOB% in 2016, and his 72.3 LOB% in 2020 was below his 75.8 LOB% in his career before 2020. As a result, I’m reluctant to excuse his strand-rate issues from last year entirely.

In addition, Nola allowed a career-high 1.30 HR/9 last season which coincided with a career-low 40.5 GB%. Alarmingly, his new low for ground-ball rate wasn’t a moderate slip. Nola had a 50.5 GB% before 2021, and his prior career-low mark in a season was 47.6% in his rookie season (2015).

Finally, I’m baffled by Nola’s pitch mix. According to FanGraphs, he threw fastballs at a 51.7% clip, his highest rate since 2017. Additionally, hitters attacked all of his pitches in the strike zone at a rate well above his career Z-Swing% in his career. A lot is going on under the hood that makes me concerned about merely expecting Nola to pitch closer to his ERA estimators. He’s the SP11 in ADP and ECR, meaning gamers are banking on Nola as their SP1. I can’t support a total lack of a discount for his disappointing 2021, no matter how glowing his ERA estimators were.

Jack Flaherty (SP – STL): 63.6 ADP/74.0 ECR

Almost a month ago, some of my colleagues and I provided our biggest starting pitcher bust in the top-20 starting pitchers, our top breakout inside the top-60 starting pitchers, and our favorite sleeper outside the top-60 starting pitchers. I chose Jack Flaherty, and given the subject of this article; you can guess the section I included him in.

On the surface, the 26-year-old righty rebounded from his 4.91 ERA in nine starts totaling 40.1 innings in 2020, earning a 3.22 ERA in 17 games (15 starts) spanning 78.1 innings. However, Flaherty’s 3.96 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA in 2021 were higher than his 3.42 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA during his forgettable 2020. Moreover, Flaherty had a 5.07 xERA in 2020 and a 4.92 xERA in 2021. Yuck.

Last year, Flaherty allowed career highs in exit velocity (89.8 mph versus an 86.6 mph career mark before 2021), Barrel rate (9.3 Barrel% compared to 6.3 Barrel% before 2021), and a 41.5 HardHit% (more than 10% higher than 30.8 HardHit% before last year). Remarkably, Flaherty had a career-low .233 BABIP against in 2021 that was much lower than his .256 BABIP entering last year, despite his career-worst batted-ball marks. Those things fly in stark contrast to one another.

It also gets worse. Flaherty’s 26.4 K% was his lowest since a 21.3 K% in his first 21.1 innings in The Show in 2017. Moreover, his slide in strikeout rate accompanied undesirable changes to his plate discipline numbers, which you can see in the following table.

Digging deeper, according to FanGraphs, Flaherty's slider had a 19.8 SwStr% in 2021, much lower than his 23.1 SwStr% in his career. Further, batters weren't fishing out of the strike zone against his slider as often (31.8 O-Swing% in 2021 and 36.2% for his career).

Finally, Flaherty spent time on the Injured List (IL) late in the season with a shoulder injury, returning for only 2.1 innings before the end of the year. He also missed significant time with a strained oblique. So, as a result, he pitched just 78.1 innings, presumably meaning he'll face an innings limit this year. Flaherty screams bust as the SP19 in ADP and SP22 in ECR. I have him ranked on the borderline of a low-end SP3 and high-end SP4.

Carlos Rodon (SP - SF): 108.8 ADP/108.8 ECR

Carlos Rodon was non-tendered by the White Sox following the 2020 season. However, the two sides agreed on a deal, and it finally all came together for the former first-round pick. Still, I won't dive into the stats too deeply.

Sadly, I do not doubt Rodon's ability to shove it against hitters when he's healthy. And there's the rub. Rodon pitched only 42.1 innings in 11 appearances (nine starts) in 2019 and 2020 combined. Last year, he pitched 132.2 innings in 24 starts in the regular season and 2.2 innings in the playoffs. Eventually, the innings spike caught up to Rodon.

The lefty landed on the IL with shoulder fatigue in August. In 109.2 innings before he was on the IL, Rodon's fastball averaged 95.9 mph. In 23.0 innings after he was activated, his fastball was down to 93.2 mph. Of course, fastball velocity isn't the be-all-end-all, but a 2.7 mph nosedive is a red flag.

According to MLB Game Day, Rodon threw a maximum velocity fastball of 99.4 mph in the first inning of his postseason start against the Astros. He threw five fastballs at at least 96.8 mph in the first inning. However, his fastball velocity tailed off as his start went on. He topped out at 96.5 mph in the second inning and threw four of six fastballs under 95.0 mph. Rodon reached back for more gas in the third inning. However, he was ineffective and chased that inning.

I might be encouraged by Rodon's velocity even in an erratic performance if things played out differently after the season. Nevertheless, the White Sox didn't extend him a qualifying offer. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the White Sox are -200 to win the American League Central, have the fourth-shortest odds (+500) to win the American League, and are tied for the fifth-shortest odds (+1100) to win the World Series. So, it stands to reason a contender would want to bring back a frontline starter, right? The White Sox are privy to Rodon's medical information and chose not to give him a qualifying offer. I'm unwilling to overlook that nugget of information.

However, I'm slightly more bullish on Rodon since I penned the lefty's write-up to this point on Thursday night, before he agreed to a two-year deal worth $44 million with an opt-out after the first year with the Giants.

Left-handed starter Carlos Rodón and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a two-year, $44 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 11, 2022

Initially, he was my SP50. Now, after seeing the size of his contract, the player opt-out, and assuming he passes San Francisco's physical, he's my SP36. My ranking is only two spots behind his SP34 ADP and three behind his SP33 ECR. So, why do I have him listed as a bust? Because I'd be shocked if other gamers aren't encouraged by Rodon's deal as well, pushing his ADP up higher. Vlad Sedler of FTN Fantasy also voiced an expectation for Rodon skyrocketing up draft boards.

Carlos Rodon's NFBC ADP in 12-team Online Championships since Feb 1 (22 drafts):

121.1
(min: 85, max: 170)

Expect to see him climb into the Webb, Fried, Musgrove tier (60-75 overall) this weekend.

Up to you if you want to pay the new price tag.

— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) March 11, 2022

The possible payoff is worth the risk for selecting Rodon as an SP3. However, if he zooms up boards, the scales tilt too much toward the risk outweighing the reward to justify picking him.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.