It is never enjoyable whiffing on a pick in fantasy baseball drafts. Selecting a bust can create a lineup hole or, at least, put you behind the eight-ball in your league. So, of course, it behooves you to avoid landmines in fantasy drafts to the best of your ability. The following three players have red flags that provide me pause, causing me to rank them significantly lower than their average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR).
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Salvador Perez (C – KC): 32.6 ADP/40.5 ECR
Listen, Perez’s power is legitimate. Excellent batted-ball data have supported it. According to Baseball Savant, out of 194 players with at least 100 batted-ball events in 2020, Perez was ninth in Barrels rate (10.3 Brls/PA%) and tied for 55th in fly ball and line drive exit velocity (94.4 mph). Last year, out of 261 players with at least 200 batted-ball events, he was tied for seventh in Barrels rate (11.1 Brls/PA%) and tied for 15th in fly ball and line drive exit velocity (97.6 mph).
As a result, he smashed 11 homers in 156 plate appearances in 2020 and 48 dingers in 665 plate appearances last year. In addition, the veteran catcher has benefited from losing the 2019 season to injury, coming back fresh and showcasing more power than ever before. Interestingly, fellow catcher Buster Posey also benefited from missing an entire season after opting out of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
So, will donning the tools of ignorance begin to take their toll on Perez? According to FanGraphs, he caught 1002.2 innings last year, his most since 2016. In addition, other top-shelf catchers in the National League, such as J.T. Realmuto and Will Smith, could close the gap at the top of the position with the universal designated hitter on the way, opening the door for both talented catchers logging starts at designated hitter like Perez has.
Finally, Perez’s free-swinging approach could make him a neutral batting-average contributor instead of an asset. Sure, he’s hit .284 in 821 plate appearances since 2020. However, in 2,142 plate appearances from 2015 through 2018, Perez hit only .252. As a result, I’ll let others chase positional scarcity instead of spending a third-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues on Perez, much earlier than I have him ranked as the 54th player overall.
Jose Abreu (1B – CHW): 65.0 ADP/63.9 ECR
No, I don’t have a personal hatred for the American League Central, despite back-to-back hitters from that division featuring prominently to open this piece. Regardless, I have concerns about Jose Abreu. The veteran first baseman was brilliant in his American League MVP Award-winning 2020 season. Unfortunately, his encore wasn’t as good.
In fact, the following table shows he was arguably a slightly lesser version of what we saw in 2018 through 2019.
Abreu isn't a spring chicken entering his age-35 campaign. However, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll have a cliff season. Nonetheless, his age enhances that possibility and makes his increase in strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate, and decreases in launch angle, Barrel rate, maximum exit velocity, and contact rate last year versus 2018 through 2019 a red flag. Further, according to FanGraphs, Abreu had a .251 xBA and .455 xSLG, both lower than his actual .261 batting average and .481 slugging percentage.
I'd rather get out a year early on a veteran player with a top-70 ADP than a year late. So, I'll pass on Abreu for a stud earlier at first base or cheaper options like C.J. Cron (132.8 ADP), Joey Votto (147.6), or Brandon Belt (253.2). It's much easier to stomach a veteran hitting the wall at the costs of Cron, Votto, and Belt.
Tyler O'Neill (OF - STL): 65.2 ADP/53.7 ECR
Tyler O'Neill used his raw strength and blazing speed to bash 34 homers and steal 15 bases. His Statcast data supports his power and speed. Nevertheless, he has ugly warts on his statistical profile.
The biggest eyesore was O'Neill's 31.3 K%. Remarkably, his strikeout rate in 2021 was lower than his 34.0 K% before 2021. As a result, he needed a robust .366 BABIP to reach his .286 batting average last year. Sure, O'Neill's plus speed and ability to square up the ball (17.9 Barrel%) are a recipe for a high BABIP and produced a .279 xBA. Still, he's leaving a lot in the hands of the batted-ball gods. Further, he had a .305 BABIP in 450 plate appearances for the Cardinals before 2021.
In addition, he hit 21 homers, stole six bases, and hit only .229 before last year. However, I don't expect him to turn into a pumpkin. O'Neill won't turn 27 until the end of June, putting him in the prime of his career. So, it's not unreasonable that his tools translated to a leap in production last year. Still, his 67.5 Contact% (76.1% was the league average last year, per FanGraphs) was horrendous. Players with a similar profile to O'Neill are always volatile, putting a bust season in his range of outcomes. Even with his shortcomings, I have O'Neill ranked 76th overall. Still, that's 11 spots lower than his ADP and roughly 22 places lower than his ECR. Thus, I'm comfortable labeling him a bust relative to the expectations of others.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
