After a 2021 season that saw a couple of rookies break records and fantasy league-winning performances from a few others, it is safe to say last year’s draft class is one of the best in recent memory. As the NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, we can begin to look at how this year’s crop of incoming rookies stacks up to their 2021 counterparts.
This year’s class looks to be weak at the quarterback position, possibly the weakest one in almost a decade. There isn’t a slam dunk among the bunch, even though Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are intriguing prospects. At running back there are some players with good speed scores but none that stick out as 300+ touch workhorses. That shouldn’t come as a surprise but the chances of getting a rock-solid RB1 out of this bunch are low. The receiver class is probably my favorite group as it is filled with guys who tested well and had strong collegiate production. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness there and that is where the value is.
Andrew Erickson shares Free Agency and NFL Draft Needs for all 32 Teams 
Quarterbacks
2021 Class
The 2021 class at the Quarterback position was top-heavy and included five first-round selections. From a fantasy perspective, two names stick out as having weekly QB1 potential: Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Both players will have rushing upside that should help boost their floor. Some view Lance as a top-10 option as soon as next fall. In a better scheme, Trevor Lawrence is still an intriguing name. He had some ugly ratios (12:17 TD-to-Interceptions) and only completed 59% of his passes as a rookie but working with Doug Pederson is a massive improvement. I feel good about him as a buy-low candidate.
After a 2021 season that saw a couple of rookies break records and fantasy league-winning performances from a few others, it is safe to say last year’s draft class is one of the best in recent memory. As the NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, we can begin to look at how this year’s crop of incoming rookies stacks up to their 2021 counterparts.
This year’s class looks to be weak at the quarterback position, possibly the weakest one in almost a decade. There isn’t a slam dunk among the bunch, even though Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are intriguing prospects. At running back there are some players with good speed scores but none that stick out as 300+ touch workhorses. That shouldn’t come as a surprise but the chances of getting a rock-solid RB1 out of this bunch are low. The receiver class is probably my favorite group as it is filled with guys who tested well and had strong collegiate production. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness there and that is where the value is.
Andrew Erickson shares Free Agency and NFL Draft Needs for all 32 Teams
Quarterbacks
2021 Class
The 2021 class at the Quarterback position was top-heavy and included five first-round selections. From a fantasy perspective, two names stick out as having weekly QB1 potential: Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Both players will have rushing upside that should help boost their floor. Some view Lance as a top-10 option as soon as next fall. In a better scheme, Trevor Lawrence is still an intriguing name. He had some ugly ratios (12:17 TD-to-Interceptions) and only completed 59% of his passes as a rookie but working with Doug Pederson is a massive improvement. I feel good about him as a buy-low candidate.
The other two first-rounders are a contrast in styles. Mac Jones is a safe, high-floor play who won’t win your league but won’t sabotage you either. Zach Wilson has virtually no floor, but his arm talent means his weekly ceiling could be that of a top-10 QB. Out of this group, I’d feel comfortable with all but Wilson being a relevant fantasy option. Speaking of fantasy relevance, Davis Mills made a name for himself in a tough spot last year. Mills was predictably bad in his first five starts but had over 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns over his final five.
As for the rest of the 2021 class, Trask, Ehlinger, and Mond could all compete for a starting job this coming season. Or they could be relegated to a backup role if their team brings in a veteran option. Of the three, Trask is the one I’d prefer.
2022 Class
As for the 2022 class, it is, in a word, weak. You have to go back to 2013 to find another year where there might only be one first-round selection. While teams will ostensibly overvalue players at the position, every quarterback in this year’s crop has major question marks.
The best of the bunch is Malik Willis, a two-year starter at Liberty who has a cannon for an arm and athleticism to go with it. Willis is an underrated passer who will be viewed as a scrambler but does good work from the pocket. The issue here is the level of competition Liberty faced and how he will transition to the speed of the NFL. There will be at least a handful of teams who won’t be scared by that, making him a shoo-in as the first quarterback off the board.
After Willis, the clear #2 prospect is Kenny Pickett. His hand size measurements were scrutinized over the weekend but make no mistake: Pickett is NFL-ready. He gets good zip on his throws and was a 67% passer last season while tossing 42 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. He has enough mobility to extend plays, a trait many teams now covet. There will be several teams who view him as a first-round selection.
The rest of the 2022 class includes Sam Howell, whose 2021 production dinged his stock a bit. Howell will be a nice value for some team on Day 2. Carson Strong might have the best arm of any quarterback in this year’s draft class. He is a pure pocket passer, however, which will scare some teams off. Matt Corral is coming off an injury in the Sugar Bowl and didn’t throw at the Combine. His Pro Day will determine where he goes. Perhaps the most intriguing QB prospect this season is Desmond Ridder. A four-year starter at Cincinnatti, Ridder ran well (4.52 40-yard dash) at the Combine and has the size (6’4/215) NFL teams love. If there is a wild card selection in Round 1, Ridder is it.
Advantage: 2021 Class, by a wide margin. No less than six rookie quarterbacks started games last fall. That is highly unlikely to be the case this coming season. Even if Willis and Pickett are ceiling plays, this year’s class lacks the quality and quantity of the 2022 group.
Running Backs
2021 Class
Last year’s rookie running back crop was led by Najee Harris. Harris racked up almost 380 touches on his way to being selected to the Pro Bowl and was as good as advertised. Javonte Williams also had a big year finishing with over 1,200 total yards despite sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon. If the Broncos don’t bring Gordon back, Williams is an RB1. I will throw Michael Carter into this mix as he flashed RB1 upside in PPR leagues. Carter should push for a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2022.
Those three headliners alone would have made this class stand out but last year was a case study in how opportunity is everything for running backs. Elijah Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert, and Chuba Hubbard came into the season with little fanfare but were viable multi-week starters due to injuries. With Travis Etienne returning this coming fall, the 2021 class looks like one of the more pleasant surprises in recent memory.
2022 Class
Like their 2021 counterparts, the 2022 running back class has three talented backs at the top of the list. Breece Hall blazed a 4.39 forty this weekend at the Combine which might have cemented his status as the first running back taken this year. There is plenty of intrigue surrounding Isaiah Spiller but his stock took a dip last weekend. A strained abductor no doubt played a role in his poor testing metrics but he has a lot of ground to make up to catch Hall at this point. The third back of the trio is Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker, who blazed a 4.38 in the forty. He is primarily an early-down back who didn’t do much in the passing game in college. Of the three, Hall has the most complete skill set despite lacking the top-end upside of both Najee Harris and Javonte Williams.
Other running backs who could emerge from the 2nd Tier include Pierre Strong, who had a good weekend in Indianapolis. Strong is an FCS stalwart from South Dakota State who rushed for over 1,600 yards as a junior. Jerome Ford will also be an intriguing name in the middle rounds after a stellar career at Cincinnati. Ford ran a sub-4.5 forty, alleviating concerns about his straight-line speed.
Generally speaking, there are a lot of unknowns in this year’s running back class. Guys like Zonovan Knight (NC State), Eric Gray (Oklahoma), and Kyren Williams (Notre Dame) could prove valuable in the same way Elijah Mitchell and Khalil Herbert were this past season. A lot will depend on their landing spot and how their respective teams utilize their skill set.
Advantage: 2021 Class, although it might end up being closer than it looks. This year’s lack of a 350-touch back like Najee Harris stands out, nudging them ahead. That said, I do believe several players in the 2022 class will contribute right away. Hall, Spiller, Walker, and Strong could all find themselves in the backfield rotation in mini-camp.
Wide Receivers
2021 Class
2021’s draft class produced two record-breaking seasons as well as a late bloomer who was a league winner. Ja’Marr Chase was the WR5 and had a rookie season that rivaled Randy Moss for the greatest of all time. His 1,455 yards were the most ever for a first-year receiver and he’s positioned himself as one of the premier dynasty assets. As for Waddle, his 104 receptions were the most ever by a rookie breaking Anquan Boldin’s single-season mark. Like Chase, his status as a top dynasty option is set right now.
Behind those two are a dup who thrived in varying degrees in 2021. Devonta Smith had his moments, finishing with a WR2 week or better in five games. He also threw up his share of duds so his 64/915/5 line (WR30) for the year looks considerably better from a macro perspective. The real surprise of the class is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished with a flurry. He racked up a 51/560/5 line over his last six games, making him the overall WR2 for that stretch. St. Brown should see his considerable stock continue to rise as Detroit starts the process of cashing in on draft picks from the Matthew Stafford trade.
The 2021 class also boasts a host of names who flashed at times last season, including Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Josh Palmer, Rashod Bateman, and Nico Collins. Moore and Toney, in particular, looked like they had some star potential but were ultimately derailed by injuries. This class is star-studded at the top but could end up being one of the deeper receiver groups in the last decade.
2022 Class
If there is a position the 2022 class stands out, it’s at receiver. While it is highly unlikely to produce a season like Chase or Waddle put up, this is a deep group that is rich in size, speed, and collegiate production. My current WR1 among the rookies is Treylon Burks who possesses prototypical size (6’2/215) for the position. He disappointed a bit at the Combine with just a 4.55 forty time but that still measured in the 75th percentile for speed score. Drake London’s 2021 season was cut short after eight games but he still managed to put up an 88/1,084/7 line. Like Burks, he has tremendous size (6’5/210) and was the best in the country on contested catches in college. He will be a matchup nightmare in the NFL.
If not for an ACL tear in the national title game we might be talking about Jameson Williams being the number-one receiver this year. Williams averaged almost 20 yards a catch in 2021 and finished with over 1,500 yards. A pair of Ohio State wideouts round out my top-5 with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both declaring for this year’s draft. Olave grabbed early headlines for the Buckeyes getting out of the gate with 494 yards and seven touchdowns in his first five games. It was Wilson, however, who finished with the better overall season going over 1,000 yards with 12 touchdowns. Wilson is the more complete receiver of the two and should be able to come in and make an immediate impact all over the formation.
Skyy Moore is another receiver I like. His speed (4.41 40) and production (95/1292/12) are as good as any receiver in the draft. Moore is a little undersized but is a strong route runner and can take the top off the defense. David Bell didn’t test well at the combine but that just means he will be a discount in fantasy drafts. Bell averaged over 100 yards per game in his college career, the only receiver in this draft with that distinction. The other receiver I like this year is George Pickens, who missed most of this year after tearing his ACL last March. Pickens ran a 4.47 forty at the Combine and at 6’3, 195 pounds has the size to win contested catches at the next level.
Advantage: 2021 Class, although I think this year’s group might be deeper. In terms of pure production, there is probably less than a 3% chance any of the receivers this year put up a better season than Chase or Waddle did. That doesn’t mean there won’t be more fantasy-relevant players from this group, however. All 12 players listed above have the potential to come in and produce right away which makes this closer than it might appear at first glance.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
