It has been a slow trickle of information from the new USFL. However, all eight head coaching spots are accounted for. The levels of experience and backgrounds of the eight head coaches vary wildly. Thus, it’s challenging to create a level playing field for comparison. Nevertheless, I added as much context as possible for each level they coached at in the forthcoming tables.
Additionally, all but one coach has five years of statistics presented in their respective tables. Therefore, I used their most recent coaching years where applicable, with a few caveats. First, I prioritized head coaching experience over experience as an assistant or coordinator. As a result, if they had head coaching experience, I showcased their stats in those years as part of the five-season sample instead of years as a coordinator. Second, there is another caveat I applied for one coach. However, I’ll address that specifically in their write-up.
Finally, the following are the resources for the statistics in the table. First, I gathered Defense-adjusted Value Overage Average (DVOA) and situation neutral pace stats from Football Outsiders for the NFL. Second, the college football stats are from Sports-Reference. Third, CFL stats are from their official website. Finally, NFL Europa (NFLE) and United Football League (UFL) data are from Stats Crew.
This is merely meant as a starting point for analysis. I strongly advise paying attention to camp reports and announcements about the assistant coaching staff for each team, as that news will impact inaugural 2022 USFL season expectations for the eight teams. Further, I suggest an open mind entering the year, with plans to adjust expectations after the first week or two of the season. Still, the following will hopefully give us an early-season edge in betting markets and when assembling fantasy football rosters — daily (if offered) and season-long.
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Jeff Fisher – Michigan Panthers
Jeff Fisher is arguably the most accomplished head coach on the list, spending the most time of the eight coaches as a head coach in the NFL and appearing in a Super Bowl. But, unfortunately, it got ugly for him in his last years with the Rams. So, I didn't want to present only his last five years, all losing seasons. So, instead, he's the coach I alluded to having a caveat in the intro.
In addition to presenting his last three years as a head coach, I also selected his last two winning seasons in the NFL (2007 and 2008). So, those two years provide an idea of how Fisher's team might operate if they're a winning club. Fisher's stats paint the picture of a defensive-minded coach that uses a slow-pace offense. His teams have also had more success running the ball than passing the pigskin.
Larry Fedora - New Orleans Breakers
Larry Fedora has been the polar opposite of Fisher. He is an offensive-minded coach. Fedora's teams have passed at an above-average rate to other colleges. Further, they've been a tire fire defending the run. As a result, the opposition's passing numbers have suffered.
Skip Holtz - Birmingham Stallions
Skip Holtz has had only one losing season in his last five. Relative to other schools, his Louisiana Tech teams have passed more than average and run the ball at a moderate clip when at their best. In addition, Holtz's defenses have been relatively balanced and mostly above average.
Kevin Sumlin - Houston Gamblers
Kevin Sumlin has had a sub-.500 record in his last five years. However, he had only one losing season in his previous eight. Sumlin's defenses have been trash in his most recent five-year run. On the plus side, with above-average run and pass attempt totals, his offenses should run lots of plays, creating fantasy goodness and boatloads of yards. As a result, I'm intrigued by the fantasy potential for his offensive players, and the teams facing him should get a lift, too. Finally, they might be an excellent source of high over/under totals and point-scoring.
Todd Haley - Tampa Bay Bandits
*Todd Haley was fired after eight games. The stats in the table are for the entire season. So, they're not entirely representative of Haley's half-season as the offensive coordinator with the Browns and actually enhanced by the team's final eight games.
I don't have a lot of hard and fast takeaways from Haley's five-year sample above. However, his teams have mostly played at an average or faster situation neutral pace. Further, as an offensive-leaning coach, I have more faith in his team's offense than its defense.
Mike Riley - New Jersey Generals
You have to go back more than 20 years for Mike Riley's NFL head coaching stint. Still, I'm encouraged by his breakneck paces when coaching the Chargers. San Diego was also an elite run defense during his tenure. Sadly, I don't have a strong feel for how he'll shape his offense. Yes, Nebraska attempted the 14th most passes for the 27th most passing yards per game in 2017. However, they were a 4-8 team, averaging only 25.8 points per game versus allowing 36.4 points per game. So, it's probable negative game scripts inflated their passing volume.
Bart Andrus - Philadelphia Stars
Bart Andrus' head coaching resume is a mixed bag. He had some success in NFL Europa. But unfortunately, his season as the head coach of the Toronto Argonauts in 2009 was an unmitigated disaster. Toronto's offense was dead last in scoring, rushing yards per game, and next-to-last in passing yards per game. Yikes. Nevertheless, according to Fox Sports, he also has coaching experience as an offensive assistant for the Titans and Rams. So, Andrus is an offensive-minded coach at his core, despite his offense's up and down results.
Kirby Wilson - Pittsburgh Maulers
Kirby Wilson is a gray beard in the coaching ranks. According to Fox Sports, he has coached for 36 years, with 24 years as a running backs coach in the NFL for eight teams. However, Wilson also has playing experience in the CFL as a defensive back and kick returner. This is his first head coaching gig. I won't pretend to know what his coaching tendencies will be. It's a whole different ball of wax running the machine as the head coach instead of being a cog in the machine as an assistant or position coach. So, my gut tells me to be cautious of the transition to being top dog going seamlessly. Regardless, I don't have strong convictions about that take.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
