It’s early in the offseason fantasy football cycle. Thus, there is a ton of speculation and uncertainty when participating in best ball drafts. I love this time of year. However, it’s paramount to recognize the value of players will change as we progress through integral parts of the offseason, such as the start of free agency and the NFL Draft. So, while a player is undervalued now, they might be adequately or overvalued in three months. For now, I view the following quartet of players as undervalued. Additionally, the player pool is so large I’m not going to repeat the four running backs I featured in Must-Have Running Backs (20222 FantasyFootball). Instead, I suggest checking out that piece for four running backs I’m enamored with, and I’ll turn my attention to three fresh faces in this space.
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Undervalued Best Ball Players
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI): 79.0 ADP Underdog NFL Pre-Draft Best Ball, TE7
Goedert blossomed into a top-shelf tight end after the Eagles traded Zach Ertz. According to our Fantasy Leaders Tool, from Week 7 through Week 17 (the last week of the fantasy football season), in point-per-reception (PPR) formats, Goedert was tied for fourth among tight ends in points per game (11.6).
He wasn’t just an inefficient compiler, either. Instead, he was one of the most efficient tight ends. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 51 tight ends targeted at least 15 times from Week 7 through Week 17, Goedert was second in yards per route run (2.66 Y/RR). He also had Pro Football Focus’s second-highest receiving grade at tight end, trailing only George Kittle‘s marks in yards per route run and receiving grade.
Unfortunately, Goedert was in a run-heavy offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, in neutral game scripts (an offensive scoring margin between trailing by six points and leading by six points), the Eagles had the second-lowest passing rate (50%, well below the league average of 56%). Still, Goedert offset the lack of passing volume by dominating targets. According to Pro Football Focus, Jalen Hurts and Gardner Minshew attempted 225 passes from Week 7 through Week 17, directing 53 to Goedert. Goedert’s 53 targets were the second-most on the team, accounting for an excellent 23.56% target share. Moreover, Goedert was the team leader in receptions (41) and receiving yards (614) during that 10-game stretch.
As a result, Goedert is an ascending talent at tight end. I would much rather draft him than T.J. Hockenson at equal cost, and he’s going nearly 10 picks later than Hockenson. Further, I think a gap of 40 picks or more is too large between Kyle Pitts (32.7 ADP), George Kittle (36.7), Darren Waller (39.9), and Goedert at his ADP of 79.0.
Kenneth Walker (RB – FA): 82.5 ADP, RB29
One reason I love drafting this time of year is speculating on rookies. The rookies that land in the ideal homes will surely sore up best ball draft boards. So, I’ll stick many irons in the fire with rookies before they are selected in the NFL Draft.
Walker is the type of player I hone in on. He’s the second running back off the board in best ball drafts. However, he is selected nearly two rounds later than Breece Hall (60.2 ADP). Hall is NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah’s highest-ranked back, as the only one among his top-50 prospects at 39th. However, grading prospects is subjective, and others have Walker atop their running back lists.
Bleacher Reports’ scouting department has ranked Walker as their top running back prospect. They specifically mention his “potential to be a true three-down starter in the NFL.” Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News also listed Walker as his top running back prospect, ranking him 50th on his overall prospect big board. Iyer called Walker “the most complete back in this class with speed, balance, and elite block-reading skills.”
Pro Football Focus also ranked Walker atop his position group, placing 53rd on their big board. In addition, Pro Football Focus cited his college football-leading 89 broken tackles in his write-up. So, while not every prospect evaluator will rank Walker as the top running back in the 2022 NFL Draft class, a few are calling him their RB1. As a result, I’ll snag some shares of Walker in best ball leagues, hoping he lands somewhere that will utilize his bell-cow build.
Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC): 139.1 ADP, WR62
Palmer is precisely the archetype of player I’m intrigued by at this point in the offseason. First, he closed his 2021 rookie campaign by playing fantasy-useful ball. From Week 14 through Week 18, he was the WR40 in PPR scoring.
Additionally, according to our Snap Count Leaders Tool, Palmer played 60% or more of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in three of their last five games. In those games, he had lines of 5-66-1, 5-43-1, and 4-45-1, with target totals of seven, six, and nine.
Now, the big-bodied (6-foot-1 and 210 pounds) receiver might have a clearer path up the passing-game hierarchy in 2022. According to Spotrac, Mike Williams and Jared Cook are unrestricted free agents. So, targets are earned, and the team will probably add talent through free agency or the draft. Still, Palmer flashed as a rookie.
Moreover, the context is mouthwatering. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Justin Herbert was second in passing yards per game (294.9) and third in touchdown passes (38). Second, the Chargers were a pass-happy offense, passing at the ninth-highest rate (60%) in neutral game scripts. Third, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers played at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace. So, Palmer has a burgeoning stud at quarterback, and he’s in an uptempo offense that passes at a top-10 rate. As a result, I’ll gleefully scoop Palmer up a round or more earlier than his ADP to assure myself of having him on my best ball squads.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
