The 2021 NFL season is officially in the books, and all 32 teams have turned their focus to the offseason. While NFL teams have an offseason, there is no such thing for fantasy football players. Best Ball drafts are happening right now and are a great way to scratch the fantasy football itch we all have all year.
For those new to Best Ball fantasy, it’s simple. You draft your team and forget about it. You don’t have to make waiver wire moves during the year. So for those of you that have too many redraft or dynasty leagues already, playing in Best Ball leagues won’t add to your weekly workload during the regular season. Unlike redraft and dynasty leagues, Best Ball leagues don’t require weekly lineup setting. Your highest scoring team will automatically get set every week. Because of that, the draft strategy is different with Ball Ball compared to season-long leagues. When drafting your Best Ball squad, you want to focus on players with upside.
In season-long leagues, you likely will prioritize grabbing Alexander Mattison in the later rounds if you spend an early pick on Dalvin Cook. However, you will want to target a different handcuff like Tony Pollard or Devontae Booker in Best Ball drafts. If Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley miss time with an injury, you have a top-20 running back replacement. However, this article isn’t about Best Ball strategy or handcuffs. Below are eight players with an ADP outside the top 200 on Underdog fantasy that are currently late-round dart throw targets that could turn into league winners.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (QB – DET) 207.5 ADP
While the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in their first year without Goff, he wasn’t awful for fantasy owners in 2021. Goff averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game over his final four games, scoring 17.5 or more fantasy points in three of those games. He did that without T.J. Hockenson and a very limited D’Andre Swift. While Amon-Ra St. Brown was unbelievable to close out the year, that won’t stop the Lions from adding at least one, if not two, wide receivers this offseason. The Lions could add a wide receiver in free agency and use the 32nd overall pick in the draft on a wide receiver. If they do, Goff would have the supporting cast around him needed to sneak into the top-12 quarterbacks next season.
Davis Mills (QB – HOU) 228.7 ADP
At some point this offseason, the Texans will trade Deshaun Watson, making Mills the unquestioned starter for next season. As a rookie, Mills had good and bad moments. However, he played well later in the season. He averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game over the final five games of the year. Furthermore, Mills had his most impressive performance of the year in Week 5 against a talented New England Patriots defense. He had over 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and 24.7 fantasy points in that game on only 29 pass attempts. Brandin Cooks will return next season, while Nico Collins should take a massive step forward in his development. With all the draft picks the Texans will receive in a Watson trade, they will improve the weapons around Mills.
Running Backs
Trey Sermon (RB – SF) 213.8 ADP
Yes, I am still on the Sermon hype train and have bought shares of him in dynasty. While he scored only 26.8 total fantasy points as a rookie, Sermon averaged 4.1 yards per rushing attempt as the starter. Furthermore, the addition of Anthony Lynn as the assistant head coach is critical for Sermon. Last year, Lynn wanted the Lions to add a physical running back in Jamaal Williams. With the 49ers, expect Lynn to put Sermon to fill a simple role. Last season, Elijah Mitchell struggled with injuries, forcing Deebo Samuel to play snaps at running back. With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson upcoming free agents and unlikely to return, Sermon could have a critical role next year.
Marlon Mack (RB – IND) 239.2 ADP
Before tearing his Achilles, Mack was a solid fantasy running back. In the two years before the injury, he averaged 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 13.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Mack was the RB21 in 2018 and the RB20 in 2019 despite averaging only 1.2 receptions per game in those two years. He returned this season and played well when on the field. In the six games he played, Mack averaged 4.7 rushing attempts per game, averaging 3.6 yards per rushing attempt. With Jonathan Taylor as the Colts’ featured running back, Mack will sign with another team this offseason. Depending on where Mack lands in free agency, his ADP could jump into the top 100.
Wide Receivers
Zay Jones (WR – LV) 210.2 ADP
While Jones is an upcoming free agent, he will likely re-sign with the Raiders. Derek Carr has repeatedly praised Jones and has made him one of his favorite targets. Last season, Jones finished second among the Raiders’ wide receivers in receptions (47) and third in receiving yards (546). However, he stepped up his play to close out the regular season. Jones averaged 8.8 targets and 9.7 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of the regular season despite not scoring a touchdown. While the Raiders will likely make a few additions to their wide receiver unit, Jones could have a more consistent role next season. Don’t be surprised if Jones turns into a late-round target in redraft leagues next year.
Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC) 212.2 ADP
The Chargers were the only team in the NFL with two top-12 wide receivers. However, Mike Williams is a free agent and could end up elsewhere next season. Many are excited about Joshua Palmer‘s future in the NFL, as they should be. However, his ADP is over 80 spots higher than Guyton’s. When given snaps, Guyton was productive. In Week 13 and 14, he played an average of 56.3 percent of the snaps per game, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game in those contests. If Williams leaves in free agency, that opens up 129 targets for next season. Many will pick Palmer in their drafts despite a rising ADP. Instead, pivot to Guyton. His big-play ability gives you more upside than Palmer at a cheaper cost.
Tight Ends
Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU) 207.9 ADP
In his first game, Jordan had a career-high 11.6 fantasy points as he caught three of four targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. Despite seeing only 28 targets this season, the ninth most on the team, Jordan had three receiving touchdowns, the second-most. Furthermore, he averaged 7.9 fantasy points per game in the four games with four or more targets, scoring more than 10.5 fantasy points in two of them. Pharaoh Brown, Jordan Akins, and Antony Auclair are upcoming free agents, making Jordan the only tight end under contract for next season. With several critical needs to fill, the Texans are unlikely to invest in a starting-caliber tight end this offseason. Be sure to draft Jordan now at his current ADP, as it will be much higher come July.
Adam Trautman (TE – NO) 231.5 ADP
Trautman was a popular sleeper tight end during the preseason. However, he finished the year as the TE39, averaging only 3.8 fantasy points per game. While his sophomore season was a disappointment given the expectations, Trautman improved from his rookie season. Despite missing four games because of injuries, he finished fifth on the team in targets (43) and receiving yards (263). The Saints enter the offseason over the salary cap limit by a projected $75 million. With a disaster salary cap situation and several holes to fill on offense, the Saints are unlikely to bring in a tight end to challenge Trautman for his starting role next season. Trautman is entering his third year in the NFL and is a prime post-hype sleeper candidate.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive follow him @Mike_NFL2.
