Welcome to Part 3 of my Top 5 Under 25 series. For the first two parts, please see the Top 5 QBs Under 25 and the Top 5 RBs Under 25. Today, we shall dive into the WR position. This is the Top 5 WRs Under 25.
As with the QBs and RBs, the rules here are the same: I will cover some of the players that didn’t quite make the rankings and then I’ll present my Top 5. Additionally, all players must be under the age of 25. That means that players that are 25 or older like Chris Godwin (WR – TB), Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) and Deebo Samuel (WR – SF, are omitted from consideration. This list is my own, but it is strongly swayed by Dynasty Expert Consensus Rankings, so please follow that link to see how my list (or yours) compares.
Let’s begin!
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OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
It may shock you to learn that Jerry Jeudy is only 22 years old. Perhaps due to his notoriety while at Alabama it feels like he’s been around longer than two NFL seasons. Still, he’s underperformed dearly for his fantasy supporters. Some stats to consider: he’s played in 26 games over his first two seasons, but only has three total TDs and just two games with 100+ receiving yards. Yikes. Unless Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) comes to town in 2022, Jeudy’s pathetic QB situation will stay the same. He’s got some of the best target separation numbers in the league, but that hasn’t translated into much production.
Mooney came into the league the same season as Jerry Jeudy and had more TDs his rookie season than Jeudy has had in his entire NFL career. Putting the Jeudy comparison aside, Mooney improved his receptions, targets, total yardage and total TDs from year one to year two, ultimately eclipsing the 1,000 yards receiving mark. With the Chicago QB carousel finally landing on Justin Fields (QB – CHI) and Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) likely leaving town this offseason, there’s almost no target competition for Mooney and almost no downside to his 2022 projections. He’s the top target on the Bears and could prove to be a mid-round steal in 2022.
Yet another 2021 sophomore, Aiyuk was disappointing in 2021. His preseason projections saw him getting selected by teams in the 4th and 5th rounds, far before his stellar teammate Deebo Samuel (in most leagues). He started the season on Kyle Shanahan’s bad side and ultimately was not part of the offensive game plan until the second half of the season. On top of that, the 49ers were not necessarily a passing team. In fact, they had 514 pass attempts in 2021, the 4th lowest total in the league. For comparison: the lowest total was 494 (Eagles) and the highest total was 731 (Buccaneers). Despite the issues of a Kyle Shanahan offense, Aiyuk still came close to matching his 2020 numbers, so we know his floor is roughly WR33-36. Only time will tell if Trey Lance (QB – SF) can help boost Aiyuk’s numbers higher.
Michael Pittman (WR – IND): 24
Pittman took off a bit in 2021, at least compared to his 2020 stats. He jumped from 40-503-1 (receptions-yards-TDs) to 88-1082-6. He had five top-20 WR games, including two top-10 games in 2021. The real question for Pittman comes down to what you believe his ceiling is. I believe he’s hit his ceiling, perhaps except for an additional TD here or there. He was WR21 in .5-PPR leagues this season, but as long as Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) is the focal point of the offense and as long as Carson Wentz (QB – IND) is the one throwing the interceptions – I mean, the passes – it feels like Pittman is destined to be stuck in WR2-WR3 purgatory.
The man, the myth, the guy you had to choose because he fell to you in the draft and you had already spent your first few picks on TE and RB. DJ Moore may be the most cursed name in fantasy. He’s been in the league for 4 seasons already and is hyped up every year as a guy who’s about to make “the jump.” However, this season locked in his status for me. He had three top-12 WR games in the first four weeks of the season and then disappeared. Still, he finished as the WR20 in .5-PPR leagues. Here are his career finishes from 2018 through 2021: WR38, WR18, WR22, WR20. Notice the trend? He’s always good enough, but never great. And with the Carolina Panthers QB room stocked with Sam Darnold (QB – CAR), Cam Newton (QB – CAR) and a box of old cheerios, I’d say Moore has little room to rise up the rankings.
SO CLOSE
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): 22
St. Brown is by far my biggest reach in these rankings, so feel free to disagree. I’d like to direct you to a few numbers though. Firstly, he finished the season as the WR27 in .5-PPR leagues. That finish came even after 11 games with no finish greater than WR33, no TDs and no greater than seven receptions or 70 receiving yards. He was essentially a non-factor in fantasy leagues for the first 12 weeks of the season. Then, T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) was knocked out for the year, making way for Amon-Ra to post five top-10 WR finishes over the final six weeks. He became the defacto top target for Detroit and received double-digit targets in every one of those games. He also averaged a TD per week over the final six games and helped the lowly Lions collect their only three wins of the season. He’s the top guy on a team that learned how to win while heavily targeting him. The 17-game averages from that six-week stretch would come out to 144-1587-17. League winner.
The Slim Reaper was more Slim Sleeper in 2021 as Smith had a relatively quiet rookie season. He put up a 64-916-5 stat line to earn a WR31 finish in .5-PPR leagues. Keep in mind, however, that he was on an Eagles team that ranked dead last in total pass attempts (494). Ultimately, Devonta Smith had a 21% target share with 104 targets. Assuming Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) improves (or gets replaced), Devonta Smith only improves from here on out.
Moore is a tough one to take at face value. He only played in 11 games this season and was forced to catch balls from a smorgasbord of QBs. The Jets were, once again, lowly creatures in 2021, but Moore showed his upside in a handful of games. Between Weeks 7 and 13, Moore put up six total TDs and had three weeks with a top-10 WR finish, including a WR1 finish in Week 9 and a WR3 finish in Week 11. Moore will need to get healthy and hope that Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ) takes a step in the right direction in 2022. If those two things happen, Moore can easily become your new favorite player.
Higgins is an excellent receiver. Sadly, he’s stuck playing with Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN), the true WR1 in Cincinnati. That being said, Higgins improved or matched his season totals from year one to year two. He also did so while playing in two fewer games. He was the WR18 in .5-PPR leagues and had multiple weeks as a top-5 WR. His consistency, boom potential and surrounding talent all make him a top-flight dynasty option. As this Bengals team continues to grow together, so will Higgins’s fantasy ceiling. Expect greatness.
I know. I didn’t put him in the Top 5. I’m a maniac. But, in all reality, Metcalf let more than one fantasy manager down in 2021. He was drafted as a top-5 WR but had only 5 top-10 WR finishes, only one game with 100+ receiving yards and he had a stretch between Week 10 and Week 15 where he didn’t find the endzone. While that’s not out of the ordinary for most players, Metcalf is a big play receiver and his fantasy value is largely dependent on TDs. He also had only one game where he finished better than WR30 during the last nine weeks of the season. My biggest concern with DK is that he played most of 2021 with either Geno Smith (QB – SEA) or a banged-up Russell Wilson (QB – SEA), showcasing how he might perform in a situation where a stellar Russell Wilson is not involved. Short answer: he performed below expectations. Metcalf is the ultimate Boom/Bust player and he boomed with a healthy Russ and busted with a lesser QB situation. If Wilson leaves the Seahawks in 2022, then Metcalf may find his WR10 finish to be his ceiling.
THE TOP 5
Waddle is the upset here in the Top 5, but for good reason. He broke the rookie WR record for receptions in a season, tallying 104 catches on 140 targets, all the while proving he was well worth the early first-round draft pick. He finished as the WR17 in .5-PPR leagues, but it’s safe to assume he’s just getting started. His full-season stat line was 104-1015-7. The reason why Waddle finishes in the Top 5 under 25 is that he has room to grow, whereas some of the alternatives don’t have that same upside. His 140 targets were a 22% target share, which indicates he’s the top target on the team but doesn’t mean he’s hit his ceiling. For example, Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) and Davante Adams (WR – GB) both finished with a 25% and 28% target share, respectively. Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) finished with nearly 30%.
Additionally, on the side of Waddle, his Y/R (yards per reception) was 9.8, which is lower than most WR1s (DK Metcalf had a Y/R of 12.9 yards. Diontae Johnson, a similarly targeted player to Waddle, had a Y/R of 10.9). Additionally, while Waddle finished as the WR17, he had only seven TDs. If he’d matched Metcalf’s TD total, he’d have finished as the WR8, well above Metcalf. That’s a pretty drastic hypothetical, so let’s consider the very real future. Ultimately, Waddle is going to receive a WR1 target share and will likely finish with improved stats in 2022. That makes WR17 his floor. He’s also playing with Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA), the QB he played with at Alabama. To be fair, Tua is a middling QB. In the case that Tua is pivoted away from (a very real possibility) this offseason, it’s safe to assume that Waddle might improve his Y/R, thus making his receptions all the more valuable. In the case Tua is still in Miami, at least Waddle has a solid relationship with his QB. To compare: DK Metcalf is playing with the best QB he will ever play with and may have reached his peak. Waddle is playing, potentially, with one of the least talented QBs he’ll ever play with. Waddle is trending up and Metcalf is trending down. I rest my case.
I’ll admit that the other WRs in the Top 5 are less difficult to place. There’s an argument to be made for Brown being higher than Lamb, but I think the relative QB future for Dallas is better than Tennessee, meaning that Lamb will have an easier time in his offense than Brown. That being said, AJ Brown is about as good as WRs get. He had a down year, but when he gets going he really gets going. Chalk 2021 up to injury, especially since he improved nearly all relative stats from 2019 to 2020, going from WR15 to WR11. He finished 2021 as the WR34, but he also finished various weeks as WR1, WR3 and WR4. WR34 is the anomaly, not the norm. He’s got such ridiculous upside that even the presence of Julio Jones (WR – TEN) isn’t enough to keep him from balling out. The only thing really holding Brown back is his health.
Lamb is set to be the top target in Dallas for the next 5-10 years, which is about the only argument that needs to be made. With Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) as QB and a Cowboys franchise that loves exciting offenses, Lamb is here to stay. Perhaps most exciting of all for Lamb is that he improved all of his stats from year one to year two (with the exception of total TDs) and he went from finishing as WR20 to WR16. Even with that, he seemed to grossly underperform at times, finishing just three weeks with a WR12 or better finish. The QB play in Dallas also seemed lackluster, so that may mark an area of improvement in 2022. Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) may not be long in Dallas either, which means Lamb is only going to be more involved in the coming years. Sky’s the limit, weather permitting.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN): 21
Chase finished 2021 with a stat line of 81-1455-13. He also led the league in drops, but I honestly don’t think anyone cares at this point. Considering that fellow studs Deebo Samuel and Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) were also near the top of the league in dropped passes, it’s hard to imagine it’s a stat that matters. What does matter is that Chase was a rookie in 2021 and finished as WR4. With his buddy Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) throwing him the ball, Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) leading a run game that needs to be taken seriously and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN) helping to keep Chase from being double-covered every play, Chase has virtually unlimited upside. He’s not at the top of the list for one simple reason: someone else has been balling out a little longer.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): 23
He finished his rookie season as WR6 and capped off his sophomore season as WR5. Justin Jefferson is, hopefully, what Chase will become: a guy who balls out every season. We see guys like Metcalf or AJ Brown, even Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) and Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL), who flash one season and then regress the next. Jefferson is the premium when it comes to WR. Not only is he my top WR under 25, he’s the top dynasty WR based on Expert Consensus Rankings. What’s left to say? He improved all of his related stats from year one to year two and he did it on a franchise that’s most effective when running the ball. He’s going to put up the numbers you need to win your league. Period. That makes him the best… for now.
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