It seems fitting that we have a pair of No. 4 seeds squaring off in the Super Bowl. In a season where there was never a clear favorite to win it all, why bother inviting the top seeds to the big party?
It’s not as if the Bengals and Rams are riff-raff. They both won their divisions. They both had to run a gauntlet to get here, winning three playoff games apiece. They both won two playoff games on the road. They both overcame two-score deficits in the second half of their conference championship games.
The Bengals and Rams are survivors.
Let’s go back to Week 9 for a moment. The Bengals were blown out at home by the Browns, 41-16. That embarrassing loss came on the heels of a 34-31 loss to the lowly Jets and dropped the Bengals to 5-4. The good people of Cincinnati probably weren’t making Super Bowl plans at that point.
The Sunday-night game in Week 9 was Titans at Rams. The Rams were 7-1 and did look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders at the time, but the Titans beat the Rams 28-16 in a game more one-sided than the final score would indicate. (Sony Michel scored a cosmetic touchdown for L.A. with 24 seconds left.) That began a three-game skid for the Rams that also included decisive losses to the 49ers and Packers.
The Rams nearly went down in infamy for blowing a 27-3 lead against the Buccaneers in the divisional round. The Bucs roared back to tie the game 27-27 with 42 seconds left, but Matthew Stafford found Cooper Kupp for 20- and 44-yard completions on consecutive plays to set up Matt Gay‘s game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Bengals had a scare of their own in the divisional round. With the game tied 16-16, the Titans had the ball at their own 40-yard line with 28 seconds left and were maybe 25 yards away from a reasonable chance at a game-winning field goal, but Eli Apple intercepted a Ryan Tannehill pass near midfield, and a 19-yard completion from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase set up Evan McPherson‘s 52-yard game-winner at the final gun.
The Rams trailed the 49ers 17-7 going into the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Bengals trailed the Chiefs 21-10 late in the third quarter of the AFC Championship Game.
Both of these teams have stared into the abyss. And now they’re one game away from immortality.
(The Super Bowl Primer examines the game’s fantasy-relevant players from a DFS perspective. The prices listed next to each player are the prices for the DraftKings showdowns.)
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Sunday February 13, 6:30pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48.5 points
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($15,900): Burrow took a league-high 51 sacks during the regular season and was dropped nine times in the Bengals’ Divisional Round victory over the Titans. The Rams recorded 50 regular-season sacks, the third-highest total in the league. Cincinnati’s offensive line had the second-worst adjusted sack rate in the league, per Football Outsiders. Rams DT Aaron Donald and edge rushers Von Miller and Leonard Floyd are capable of making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. So what does Bengals head coach Zac Taylor do to keep the L.A. pass rush at bay? The Rams lost five games this season. One of those losses was to the Titans, whose offense produced less than 200 yards in that game, so let’s ignore that contest. In a Week 4 loss to the Cardinals and a Week 10 loss to the 49ers, the Rams’ opponents went run-heavy. Arizona RBs Chase Edmond and James Conner combined for 30 carries, 170 yards and two TDs in Week 4. San Francisco RBs Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson and WR Deebo Samuel combined for 42-155-1 on the ground in Week 10. In the Rams’ other two losses, a Week 12 defeat in Green Bay and a second loss to San Francisco, the Rams’ opponents successfully mixed the run and pass and managed to keep the Rams’ pass rush from ruining things. But the Packers and 49ers have good offensive lines; the Bengals do not. It seems unlikely the Bengals could successfully assault the Rams with a ground-and-pound attack. More likely, Cincinnati will count on Burrow to work his magic under duress, mixing in a few screens and quick-hitters to negate the Rams’ pressure. This simply doesn’t seem like a great spot for Burrow. The Rams’ pass defense ranks sixth in DVOA and had more regular-season interceptions (19) than TD passes allowed (17). The DraftKings player prop on Burrow’s passing yardage was 275.5 yards as of Wednesday morning. I’d feel pretty comfortable betting the under, and I’m not especially interested in rostering Burrow in the DraftKings showdown.
Matthew Stafford ($16,200): Stafford has thrown multiple TD passes in five consecutive games and nine of his last 10. The Rams have won eight of their last nine games, and over that span Stafford has averaged 275 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. Stafford tied for the league lead with 17 regular-season interceptions, but he’s only been picked off once in three playoff games. The Bengals’ pass defense has been average at best this season, ranking 24th in DVOA. Cincinnati gave up 248.4 passing yards per game during the regular season, seventh most in the league. The Bengals’ defense has pass-funnel tendencies. Opponents have thrown against the Bengals 63% of the time this season. The league average is 58%. Stafford looks like a worthy investment on DraftKings, and I lean toward the over on 279.5 passing yards.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon ($14,400): Mixon averaged 18.3 carries a game during the regular season and has averaged 17.3 carries per game in the playoffs. As noted in the Joe Burrow write-up above, the Cardinals and 49ers had some success battering the Rams with a run-heavy attack. The trouble is that the Cincinnati rushing game hasn’t been particularly effective since the beginning of December, which is when they lost offensive tackle Riley Reiff to a season-ending ankle injury. Mixon had 21-88-0 rushing against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. It was his highest rushing total since Week 12. Over his last eight games, Mixon has averaged 3.46 yards per carry. The Rams held the 49ers to 20-50-0 rushing in the NFC Championship Game and haven’t allowed more than 61 rushing yards in any of their three playoff games. The Bengals have ramped up Mixon’s usage in the passing game recently. He’s had 26-216-1 receiving on 29 targets over his last five games. Expect the Bengals to give Mixon plenty of carries in an effort to keep the Rams’ pass rush honest, but don’t expect great efficiency from Mixon on the ground. For him to be worth his DraftKings price, Mixon will probably need to either score a touchdown or have a big game as a pass catcher.
Cam Akers ($9,600): Akers tore his Achilles in late July and is now preparing to start for the Rams in the Super Bowl. What a remarkable story. After rehabbing like a madman, Akers got a small taste of action in Week 18, playing 13 snaps and getting eight touches. But in the Rams’ three playoff games, Akers has had 54-151-0 rushing and 5-62-0 receiving. He’s averaged just 2.8 yards per carry in the postseason, but Akers had a couple of nice runs called back the wild-card win over the Cardinals, and he faced two of the NFL’s better run defenses in his last two games – the Buccaneers and 49ers. Sony Michel out-snapped Akers 44-30 two weeks ago, and it’s possible we’ll see something close to a 50/50 workload split this Sunday against a Bengals run defense that ranks 13th in DVOA. At their respective prices, With Rams running backs averaging 26.7 carries a game over the team’s three postseason games, it’s probably wise to get one or the other onto your showdown rosters this week. Even though he played fewer snaps than Michel last week, Akers appears to be the better choice.
Sony Michel ($7,500): Michael played 24 snaps in the Rams’ wild-card win over the Cardinals and 14 snaps in the divisional-round win over the Buccaneers, but he was given more work in the NFC Championship Game, where he played 44 snaps and finished with 10-16-0 rushing and had one catch for minus-4 yards. Michel averaged 21.5 carries a game from Week 13 to the end of the regular season, but Cam Akers‘ return from a torn Achilles has dramatically changed the calculus of the L.A. backfield. It’s possible we see the two backs split work somewhat evenly in the Super Bowl, but it’s hard to feel comfortable investing in Michel even at a considerable discount.
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Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase ($15,600): Chase has been on a tear ever since Christmas. Not counting a meaningless Week 18 game against the Browns in which he played only five snaps, the rookie from LSU has racked up 38-670-4 on 49 targets over his last five games. The Rams’ top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, has talked this week about wanting to face the Bengals’ best receiver. As good as Tee Higgins is, Chase is the Bengals’ No. 1, but it’s not a slam dunk that Chase will face Ramsey on a majority of his snaps. More likely, Ramsey will cover Chase about half the time, Higgins about half the time. When Chase isn’t facing Ramsey, he’ll likely be up against the far more beatable Darious Williams. More important than which cornerback Chase faces is whether Joe Burrow will have enough time to find Chase on deeper routes. The Bengals have increasingly been using Chase in the screen game, and he’s capable of turning quick hitters into long gains, as he did with a 57-yard gain in the divisional-round win over the Titans, but Chase might not have a big day if Burrow is under constant duress. Chase isn’t a bad value at this price, but I’m shying away.
Tee Higgins ($11,400): Higgins had six catches for a team-high 103 yards against the Chiefs two weeks ago, and he had 7-96-0 vs. the Titans in the divisional round. Ja’Marr Chase has been red-hot, but Higgins is still managing to put up big yardage totals, topping the 100-yard mark in five of his last nine games. He’s going to see some of Rams CB Jalen Ramsey this week, but Higgins won’t see shadow coverage from him. I think I’d rather spend $4,200 less for Higgins than splurge on Chase.
Tyler Boyd ($8,100): Boyd’s usage has become remarkably predictable. His target totals over his last eight games: 7, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 3, 6. His reception totals over that stretch: 5, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4, 2, 4. Boyd averaged 51.8 receiving yards a game in the regular season, but he’s averaged just 17.3 receiving yards over Cincinnati’s three playoff games. Boyd is intriguing this week as a short-area safety valve. He had an average depth of target of 7.7 yards during the regular season, and Joe Burrow might look for Boyd on some quick-hitting routes Sunday to keep the fierce L.A. pass rush at bay. Boyd’s matchup against Rams slot corner David Long Jr. is appealing, as is the fact that Boyd has scored touchdowns in four of his last six games. I really like Boyd at such a modest price.
Cooper Kupp ($17,400): Kupp is more expensive than either of the quarterbacks, and he’s been so consistently outstanding that you might be forced to pay up or else be trampled by the herd. You could keep Kupp out of your lineup and pray that he lays an egg, but that’s not very likely. Kupp has failed to score a touchdown in only one of his last nine games, and in that game he had 10 catches for 109 yards. In 20 games this season, playoffs included, there have only been four games in which Kupp finished with fewer than 100 yards and didn’t score a touchdown – and in three of those games he still managed to top 90 yards. Bengals slot corner Mike Hilton is a tricky matchup, but betting against Kupp in a big game seems like a losing proposition.
Odell Beckham ($12,600): Beckham was a busy man in the Rams’ 20-17 win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, with 11 targets, nine receptions and 113 yards – all season highs. OBJ’s chemistry with Matthew Stafford has developed nicely as Beckham has become more familiar with his new offense. In his 11 games with the Rams, Beckham has scored six touchdowns. Still, Beckham seems a tad overpriced this week considering that he’ll be running the majority of his routes against the Bengals’ best cornerback, Chidobe Awuzie.
Van Jefferson ($7,800): After rolling up 41-679-6 over the first 14 weeks of the regular season, Jefferson has produced just 14-202-0 over his last seven games. As Odell Beckham‘s role has grown, Jefferson’s has shrunk. There’s no point spending $7,800 on Jefferson when you can pay just $300 more for Tyler Boyd and actually have a chance to get decent numbers.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah ($6,600): Uzomah sustained a sprained MCL in the AFC Championship Game but has vowed to play in the Super Bowl. It’s not an injury that players typically shake off after just two weeks, and it’s hard to see Uzomah playing a full complement of snaps even if he’s able to suit up. Uzomah scored five regular-season touchdowns and had 13-135-1 in the Bengals’ first two playoff games before injuring himself vs. the Chiefs. He might be worth a shot in DFS if he’s able to play and there isn’t any talk of a snap limit for him, but a touchdown would probably be Uzomah’s only chance of providing value.
Drew Sample ($6,300): Sample had 11-81-0 receiving in the regular season, and his lone catch in the playoffs so far was a 4-yard reception against the Chiefs. Sample played 62 snaps against Kansas City and will play a ton of snaps in the Super Bowl if a sprained MCL keeps C.J. Uzomah sidelined. But Sample just isn’t very involved in the Cincinnati passing game and isn’t worth the money even if Uzomah is scratched.
Tyler Higbee ($7,200): Like his Bengals counterpart, C.J. Uzomah, Higbee sprained his MCL on conference championship weekend and is questionable for the Super Bowl. The Bengals allowed 96-1,083-8 to tight ends during the regular season, making them a bottom-five defense against TEs. If Higbee is able to go, he’s worthy of DFS consideration.
Kendall Blanton: ($6,900): Considering that Tyler Higbee is dealing with a sprained MCL, and that the Bengals allowed the fourth most receptions and fifth most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season, Blanton could be a sneaky-good DFS play. With Higbee injured in the NFC Championship Game, Blanton played 62 snaps and had 5-57-0 receiving against the 49ers, who were stingy to opposing tight ends all season.
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