This is it. The Lombardi Trophy will be awarded to the contest winner between the Rams and Bengals. The game is in Los Angeles at the Rams’ home stadium, SoFi Stadium. However, the Bengals are the home team, following the alternating home-field designation format for the Big Game. The game’s spread is modest, and the over/under is a pinch under 50. So, the betting market is projecting a relatively close game, teetering in a scoring vicinity where slightly coming up short of the over/under would qualify as a defensive slugfest, and going above would amount to a shootout.
One thing both teams have in common that makes picking players challenging is a lack of cheap, ancillary options. Both the Bengals and Rams are top-heavy teams. Nevertheless, I sort through the options below, hoping to make the most of the cap space and identify usable value plays to offset the studs.
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Game: Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: LAR -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Rams Analysis: I've frequently glossed over my analysis of Cooper Kupp this year. However, this is the last opportunity to highlight his excellent 2021 campaign. So, let's roll out the red carpet and shine a light on all of his elite numbers.
According to Pro Football Focus, including the regular season and postseason, out of 72 receivers targeted at least 50 times, Kupp has been first in yards per route run (3.17 Y/RR) and earned their highest receiving grade. He was also a target hog during the regular season. According to Sports Info Solutions, he had the fourth-highest target share (27.5%). Predictably, his elite underlying numbers resulted in superb box-score numbers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, in the regular season, Kupp was eighth in yards per target (10.2 Y/Tgt) and first in receptions per game (8.5), receiving yards per game (114.5), and touchdown receptions (16). Finally, he's been even better in the postseason. Kupp has had 31 targets, 25 receptions, 386 receiving yards, four touchdowns, and 3.51 Y/RR in three playoff games. I'm not burying the lede for my favorite player on this single-game slate. It's Kupp.
Matthew Stafford hasn't been perfect this year. Still, he was fourth in passing yards per game (287.4), third in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.45 ANY/A), and second in touchdown passes (41), more than offsetting tying for the NFL high with 17 interceptions. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals were 13th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 24th in pass defense DVOA. So, Cinci was better defending the run than the pass, adding to the appeal of using Stafford and the Rams' passing attack.
Moreover, they're a pass-happy team. According to Sharp Football Stats, in neutral game scripts (an offensive scoring margin from trailing by six points to leading by six points), the Rams have passed at the third-highest rate (62% versus a league average of 56%). Obviously, the pass-happy approach is a plus for the passing-game options behind Kupp and Stafford, too.
I'm still not crazy about Odell Beckham Jr. Nevertheless, Beckham is shining in the postseason. In the playoffs, OBJ has had 2.38 Y/RR, 22 targets, 19 receptions, 236 receiving yards, and one touchdown. He's the No. 2 passing-game option.
Others to consider are Van Jefferson and whoever starts at tight end for the Rams. Tyler Higbee is hurt, and his status is up in the air. If he's out, Kendall Blanton is the next man up. Jefferson's primarily been quiet in the postseason. However, he's a home-run hitter as a vertical threat. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 17, Jefferson has had an average depth of target of 16.1 yards downfield. This week, the young receiver's vertical use might play well against the Bengals. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bengals have allowed the eighth-highest average explosive pass rate (nine percent).
Finally, the only running back I'm interested in from the Rams is the cheapest of the bunch, Darrell Henderson Jr. -- if he returns this week, as Sean McVay optimistically believes he will. Cam Akers' remarkable same-season return from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon is remarkable. Unfortunately, however, he hasn't been an efficient runner. Nevertheless, I expect Akers to be the team's primary ball-carrier this week.
Still, Henderson might mix in as a change-of-pace runner, and he could handle the bulk of the receiving workload. Admittedly, Akers has been more efficient than Henderson in the passing game this year, with the former recording 1.26 Y/RR versus 0.63 Y/RR for the latter. So, why do I think Henderson might usurp the passing-game gig? Akers has run only 57 routes in four games compared to 280 routes in 12 games for Henderson, amounting to per-game averages of 14.25 routes and 23.33 routes. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bengals allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (769) and fifth-most receptions (108) to running backs in the regular season. Therefore, the pass-catching back role for the Rams could pay daily fantasy dividends. I don't suggest going overboard using Henderson. However, if you're multi-entering GPPs, being overweight slightly to the field is a defensible decision.
Bengals Analysis: Like the Rams, the Bengals don't have many unsung heroes on offense. They lean on their top options, leaving scraps for the auxiliary pieces of the offense. In his second season, Joe Burrow put it together despite his rookie campaign coming to an end early with a torn ACL. The sophomore slinger was eighth in passing touchdowns (34), third in passing yards per game (288.2), and second in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.51 ANY/A). Burrow has been more of a rock-solid fantasy contributor than a world-beater in the playoffs. However, he's passed for multiple touchdowns in two of the three games, spinning it for 348 yards in the outlier. As a result, he's an excellent option on this single-game slate.
However, Ja'Marr Chase is my favorite option from Cincinnati's offense. The rookie wideout immediately thrust himself into the discussion for being a top-five wideout in the NFL. He has been eighth in yards per route run (2.47 Y/RR) among 72 receivers targeted at least 50 times in the regular and postseason combined. Including the postseason and dropping the Week 18 game (he played fewer than 10 snaps because the Bengals were resting starters), Chase has had per-game averages of 7.68 targets, 5.21 receptions, 89.89 receiving yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in 19 games. Pro Football Focus projects Chase to have the best cornerback matchup of Cincinnati's receivers. So, I don't expect him to rescind his role as the team's passing-game leader that he's held through the playoffs. Chase has paced the Bengals in the postseason in routes (124), targets (27), receptions (20), receiving yards (279), and is one of four players with a receiving touchdown.
Throughout the season, Tee Higgins has been the Bengals' No. 2 receiver, holding firm in that spot in the postseason. In three playoff games, he has been second on the club in routes (118), targets (22), receptions (14), and receiving yards (209). Unfortunately, he hasn't found the end zone. Regardless, according to our Red Zone Stats page, Higgins' 13 targets in the red zone nipped at the heels of Chase's 15 targets, despite Higgins playing in 14 games versus 17 games for Chase. Finally, in the AFC Championship Game, Higgins tied Chase for the team lead in targets (nine) and receptions (six), leading the club with 103 receiving yards. The second-year receiver is entirely capable of being the top passing-game option any given week, this week included.
I'm not optimistic about C.J. Uzomah returning this week from the knee injury he suffered in the last game. Thus, he leaves behind receiving work to be earned by others. My favorite bet to soak up some or most of Uzomah's vacated looks is slot wideout Tyler Boyd. Uzomah and Boyd have operated in similar areas of the field, making Boyd a logical choice to get some extra looks in the shallow and intermediate areas of the field.
Joe Mixon is the last integral part of the offense. I'm not falling into the trap of chasing Samaje Perine's 3-43-1 line as a receiver in the AFC Championship Game. The backup running back ran only 13 routes versus 22 for Mixon in that game, extending a trend that dates back to the end of the regular season. In Burrow's last five starts, Mixon has run 129 routes against only 48 for Perine. Mixon has parlayed his route running into 29 targets, 26 receptions, 216 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
Mixon is also a workhorse runner. He's toted the rock double-digit times in all 19 games he's played this year. Unfortunately, he hasn't been particularly efficient, clearing 4.00 yards per rush attempt only one time in his previous eight games. I won't pretend yards per rush attempt is a great metric. It isn't. Still, it does paint a clear picture of inefficiency as a runner, something I don't expect to turn around in a challenging matchup. The Rams are fifth in rush defense DVOA. Additionally, they allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards (1,334) to running backs in the regular season. As a result, I'm content fading Mixon or limiting my exposure to him in contests I multi-enter.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.