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Super Bowl LVI Dynasty Value Check (2022 Fantasy Football)

Super Bowl LVI Dynasty Value Check (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2021 NFL season has almost come to an end. Super Bowl 56 between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals is this weekend, and the game should be very entertaining. Not only should the game be competitive, but it will also feature several faces of the fantasy football world. As we lead up to kickoff, let’s look at the current value of all the top players in this game.

All stats mentioned are based on four-point per passing touchdown and PPR scoring.

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Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford (QB)
In his first year with the Rams, Stafford had one of the best years of his career. He finished as the QB6, averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. Stafford also matched his career-high with 41 passing touchdowns this season. While he had a few rough performances during the year, Stafford was fairly consistent, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in 64.7 percent of the games. While he is under contract only through the 2022 season, the Rams will work an extension with their franchise quarterback. Unlike in Detroit, Stafford has plenty of weapons around him, highlighted by Cooper Kupp. Stafford turned 34 on Monday but has several great years left in him. While rebuilding teams should sell high on Stafford, win-now teams should hold onto the veteran quarterback.

Cam Akers (RB)
Many had high hopes for Akers in the offseason. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles in July and his 2021 season was reportedly over. However, just six months later, Akers returned to the football field. In the final game of the regular season, Akers only played 20 percent of the snaps and had five rushing attempts. However, he has looked explosive and healthy during the playoffs, including a 12.4 yards per reception average. Akers has also played 57.4 percent of the running back snaps so far in the playoffs compared to 39.2 percent for Sony Michel.

Going back to the 2020 season, Akers finished the year on a high note. Over his five games, Akers averaged 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 14 fantasy points per game, scoring 16 or more fantasy points twice. The Rams will have some decisions to make this offseason regarding their backfield. However, one thing is clear, Akers is the featured back. Hopefully, you bought low when the injury happened and have reaped the benefits. If not, Akers is still a player you should trade for, especially if you are a contending team.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB)
When on the field, Henderson has been a productive fantasy running back. He averaged a career-high 13.6 fantasy points per game this season, filling in for Akers. Furthermore, he averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game in the eight games with 13 or more rushing attempts. However, his biggest problem has been the injuries. He has missed 18.4 percent of the games in his career because of injuries, including a career-high five games this season. The most concerning issue with Henderson is the Rams’ lack of faith in the running back. Henderson got picked in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The following offseason, the Rams released Todd Gurley, paving the way to a featured role for Henderson. Instead, the Rams used their first selection in 2020 on Akers.

With Henderson, Akers, and Malcolm Brown splitting work in 2020, Henderson struggled to produce for fantasy teams. He scored 10 or more fantasy points in only five of 15 games that year. When Akers suffered the torn Achilles, the Rams traded a fourth-round pick to the New England Patriots for Michel and a sixth-round pick. At this point, we have to wonder if the Rams believe in Henderson as anything more than a change of pace running back. Henderson will be a free agent in 2023 with limited mileage on his body. Hopefully, he lands with a team that gives him a shot at a starting role. However, fantasy owners have to consider him a risky acquisition.

Sony Michel (RB)
During his time with the Patriots, Michel was a touchdown or bust running back. More importantly, he progressively got worse every year. After averaging 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 10.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie, Michel averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 9.5 fantasy points per game in 2019. He then had only one rushing touchdown in nine games while averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game the following year. Many expected the Patriots to release Michel after they drafted Rhamondre Stevenson. Instead, the Rams came knocking with an offer many were surprised to see.

When Henderson was healthy, Michel barely saw the field. In the 12 games Henderson played, Michel averaged 9.6 touches and 6.7 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Michel averaged 22.8 touches and 13.1 fantasy points per game when Henderson was out. However, he averaged only 0.58 fantasy points per game as the starter. Furthermore, those numbers got inflated by two performances. In those five games, Michel scored under 11 fantasy points in three of them, including under eight fantasy points twice. Many are hopeful Michel will sign with a team like the Miami Dolphins or Houston Texans this offseason, giving him a chance as the lead back. However, fantasy owners would be wise to avoid Michel and trade him away while you can.

Cooper Kupp (WR)
The veteran wide receiver had a historic year in 2021, leading the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947), receiving touchdowns (16), and total fantasy points (439.5). He is only the fourth wide receiver in the NFL history to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in a season. Kupp achieved that feat despite three other players on the team seeing at least 69 targets this season. His season-low was 11.4 fantasy points. For reference, only 38 wide receivers average more fantasy points per game than Kupp’s worst performance of the year. Furthermore, Kupp scored 95.2 more fantasy points and 4.4 more fantasy points per game than any other wide receiver this season. At 28 years old, Kupp is in the middle of his prime.

Is now the time to sell high on Kupp? The answer is yes. But only if you get a package of players and picks that you can’t turn down. No one should expect Kupp to repeat the numbers from this season again next year. However, his floor is a top-10 wide receiver. Over the previous three years, Kupp averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game despite playing with Jared Goff. On a 17 game pace, he would have scored 267.8 fantasy points this season, making him the WR8. If you are going to trade Kupp away, the return needs to be unbelievable. For those trying to add Kupp, forget about it. The price is likely too high.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR)
Beckham’s fantasy value was at an all-time low coming into the year low as he was coming off a torn ACL. Furthermore, Beckham averaged only 11.4 fantasy points per game in 29 career games with the Cleveland Browns. By comparison, he averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game with the New York Giants and 16.7 fantasy points per game in the three playoff games with the Rams. As great as Beckham has been for the Rams, fantasy owners hope Beckham leaves in free agency this offseason. With the return of Robert Woods, Beckham will not see the same 6.5 targets per game next year that he saw this season with the Rams.

Ideally, Beckham will sign with a team like the Las Vegas Raiders or New England Patriots. Those teams are more likely to give Beckham the 27.4 percent target share he saw in New York than the Rams. Meanwhile, he will turn 30 years old during the 2022 season. Beckham is a hard player to evaluate, given his injury history and pending free agency. That said, contending teams should check on the price for Beckham while rebuilding teams should move him for the best available offer come your rookie draft.

Robert Woods (WR)
Some felt Woods wasn’t playing up to his usual level of play before he suffered a torn ACL in practice. However, Woods was on pace to meet or exceed most numbers he has put up during his time with the Rams. This season his 16 game pace was 80 receptions on 123 targets for 989 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns, and 243.8 fantasy points. By comparison, he averaged 80.5 receptions on 120.8 targets for 1,017.5 receiving yards, 4.8 receiving touchdowns, and 226.7 fantasy points per season over his first four years with the Rams. Furthermore, his 17 game pace would have made Woods the WR8 this season.

The main reason why Beckham will likely play elsewhere next season is the return of Woods. He is under contract for the next four years with the Rams. His cap for next season is $15.7 million. If the Rams trade him with a pre-June 1 designation, he will leave over $12 million in dead money. Given his play over the past few months, Beckham will likely find a more lucrative deal on the open market. Despite the belief that Woods is an aging wide receiver, he is only seven months older than Beckham. For those of you who want to buy a part of the Los Angeles offense but not pay up for Kupp, Woods is the guy you want to target.

Van Jefferson (WR)
When the Rams traded Brandin Cooks to the Texans, they used the second-round they acquired in that deal on Jefferson. Unfortunately, Jefferson had a disappointing rookie season despite being a favorite of many NFL Draft junkies. Many thought Jefferson would turn into a wasted draft pick after the Rams signed Kupp and Woods to contract extensions. However, he had a breakout sophomore season, averaging 9.9 fantasy points per game. His yards per reception increased by 37.9 percent as he turned into a favorite downfield target for Stafford. Furthermore, the change from Woods to Beckham didn’t have much impact on his numbers.

Jefferson averaged 5.1 targets and 9.8 fantasy points per game in the nine games with Woods. By comparison, he averaged 5.4 targets and 10 fantasy points per game in the eight games with Beckham. Jefferson is clearly the third option in the passing game for the Rams. However, that could change in a year or two. The Rams have an out in Woods’ contract after the 2023 season. By releasing Woods after the 2023 season, the Rams would save $13.8 million of the $18 million cap hit. Jefferson’s rookie contract also expires after the 2023 season. While waiting two years isn’t ideal, Jefferson could turn into an excellent fantasy wide receiver in the Rams’ offense. For teams with long rebuilding projects ahead of them, Jefferson is a player to buy.

Tyler Higbee (TE)
After his strong finish to the 2019 season, many expected Higbee to turn into the next great fantasy tight end. However, he would finish outside the top-12 tight ends the next two seasons. Over the past two years, the Rams have used fourth-round picks on tight ends, Brycen Hopkins and Jacob Harris. Furthermore, they are high on Kendall Blanton, who filled in for Higbee in the NFC Championship game. The Rams can release Higbee this offseason and save $5.2 million in cap space. With several critical free agents to re-sign, the Rams might need to move on from the veteran tight end. Unless you are in desperate need of a tight end, Higbee is not the player you want to target.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow (QB)
Burrow might be the hottest name in dynasty right now. After some impressive moments as a rookie, Burrow finished his sophomore season as the QB8, averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game. While his fantasy numbers have dipped in the playoffs, Burrow has played excellent football. He had seven games with 20 or more fantasy points this season, including two 34.8 or more fantasy point games in the fantasy playoffs. Burrow single-handedly won fantasy championships for some people. His future in the NFL is as bright as any other quarterback. Trading for Burrow will be next to impossible right now. If you own him, put him on the block and see what you can get for him. However, you shouldn’t trade away Burrow for anything short of a massive offer.

Joe Mixon (RB)
For years, Mixon was the running back everyone swore they would never draft ever again. Yet, they kept on picking him. Mixon had a career year in 2021 with 1,519 scrimmage yards and 287.9 fantasy points. However, this production shouldn’t come as a surprise. Mixon averaged at least 14 fantasy points per game in four straight seasons, averaging 16.6 or more fantasy points per game in three of them. The big difference this year was his health. Mixon missed 10 games in 2020 because of injuries. By comparison, he missed only one game in 2021 because of COVID-19. The other area where Mixon improved was his touchdown production. He had a career-high 16 total touchdowns in 2021. By comparison, Mixon had 12 total touchdowns over the previous two years combined.

He scored 39 percent of his career touchdowns this season. Will his production continue going forward? It should. The Bengals gave Mixon a career-high 292 rushing attempts this season. His previous career-high was 278 rushing attempts in 2019. Despite coming off a career year, now might be the time to sell high on Mixon. He will turn 26 before the start of the 2022 NFL season and has more career touches than similar running backs in his draft class, including Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. While you shouldn’t just trade Mixon away for the highest offer to get him off your team, now is the time to consider moving on for younger running backs and draft picks in 2023.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR)
Does anyone still think the Bengals should have taken Penei Sewell over Chase? Probably not. Hopefully, when Chase struggled with drops during the preseason, you traded for him then because now it will be impossible. Many have argued that Chase is the WR1 in dynasty, and there is a case for that. At worst, he is a top-five wide receiver in start-up drafts. Chase finished the year as the WR5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. He finished third among wide receivers in receiving touchdowns with 13 and fourth in receiving yards with 1,455. Furthermore, Chase put up those numbers despite finishing 19th in the NFL with 128 targets.

Moreover, Chase had a 23.7 percent target share this season, ranking 23rd among wide receivers. He also had only 12 red zone targets, ranking 35th among wide receivers this season. However, Chase was super productive with his targets, averaging 2.38 fantasy points per game this season, the fifth-highest among wide receivers. He was also third in deep targets this season, averaging 1.8 per game. Chase is already a fantasy superstar. However, he must maintain these levels of efficiency to keep that title. The Bengals have other elite weapons on offense, namely Tee Higgins. That means the Bengals don’t have to force targets Chase’s way. While there is no such thing as an untradeable player, fantasy owners should hold onto Chase unless the offer is a league-altering package.

Tee Higgins (WR)
While Chase rightfully gets a lot of credit, Higgins was almost as productive for fantasy owners this season. He finished as the WR15, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game despite missing three games. He finished as the WR12 on a per-game basis among wide receivers who played in at least eight games. Much like Burrow, Higgins took a step forward in his sophomore season. Despite playing two fewer games, Higgins improved in almost every category in 2021. One area Higgins took a step forward this year was down the field. His yards per reception and yards per target increased by at least 7.5 percent.

Furthermore, he averaged 5.7 completed air yards per target as a rookie, ranking 22nd among wide receivers. By comparison, Higgins averaged 7.1 completed air yards per target this season, ranking ninth among wide receivers. Chase had a historical Week 17 performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. But the week before, Higgins scored 43.4 fantasy points against the Baltimore Ravens. Furthermore, Higgins was as consistent weekly as Chase. Higgins scored at least 14 fantasy points in 42.9 percent of the games this season. By comparison, Chase scored 14 or more fantasy points in 41.2 percent of the games. Instead of trading for Chase, target Higgins as his price might be 20 percent cheaper.

Tyler Boyd (WR)
With Chase and Higgins the new flashy weapons, Boyd can easily get overlooked in fantasy. However, he has been the ultimate PPR flex guy for the past several years. Boyd has averaged at least 11.5 fantasy points per game in four straight years despite averaging 5.3 touchdowns per season in that span. He has at least 825 receiving yards in four straight seasons and over 75 receptions in three of them. Furthermore, Boyd has finished as a top-32 wide receiver every year since 2018. More importantly, as the Bengals picked up their passing pace this season, Boyd’s production increased. Over the first 11 weeks of the season, Boyd averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game. In those same games, Burrow averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game.

By comparison, Burrow averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game from Week 13 through Week 17. In those five games, Boyd averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all five games. Furthermore, Boyd stepped up in the playoffs. He averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game during the fantasy playoffs, making him the WR8 during that span. That said, Boyd’s numbers have decreased four years in a row. His contract is up after the 2023 season, right when the Bengals will need to sign Higgins to a new long-term deal. Contending teams should acquire Boyd for depth while rebuilding teams should harp on his play to close out the season and trade away the veteran wide receiver.

C.J. Uzomah (TE)
Uzomah has played the best football of his career with Burrow. Over the first five years of his career, Uzomah averaged 6.6 or fewer fantasy points per game every season. He also had seven total touchdowns in those five years. By comparison, Uzomah has averaged 8.4 fantasy points per game and scored six touchdowns in the 18 career games with Burrow. However, Uzomah is a free agent next month, and the Bengals could look to upgrade at tight end. Even if Uzomah returns, he has scored 10 or more fantasy points in only 13.9 percent of his career games. He is a low-end TE2 that isn’t much of a difference-maker. If you need tight end help, find a better option than Uzomah.

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Mike Fanelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, follow him @Mike_NFL2

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