After witnessing one of the craziest playoff tournaments in NFL history, we’ll cap it all off with the biggest game in sports this Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals march in after knocking out the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and winning six of their last seven games to face a Rams squad that has won eight of their last nine and defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers during their playoff journey. Los Angeles is currently a four-point favorite, but don’t write off Cincinnati as an underdog considering how hot they’ve been over the last couple months. To wrap up our NFL playoff game picks series, we’ve brought back our most accurate betting experts to share their favorite picks and props for the season’s final game!
View all major prop bets for each player and team
Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread?
“The LA Rams (-4) take on the Cincinnati Bengals in what is shaping up to be a great matchup. The Rams, under coach Sean McVay, make their return to the big game for the second time in the last four years. Although some of the players may be different between this Super Bowl and their previous one in 2019, I give a major edge to the Rams and their team heading into this weekend. When looking at both sides of the ball, I continue to give the advantage to Los Angeles because of the playmakers on both offense and defense. Let’s not forget, when the Rams lead going into halftime, their record is 45-1 under McVay.”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)
“Historic defenses typically dominate in Super Bowls. Look for the Rams (-4) to cover the four-point spread. The Bengals’ offensive line is going to be dominated forcing Burrow to make quick decisions. The Rams were my preseason pick to win it all and I see them winning by a touchdown here.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)
“I gotta go with the Rams (-4). They’re a better overall team and it seems like a large chunk of the public is on the Bengals. The Rams have more talent on defense and a more experienced coach, and I think it comes down to just those two things, no matter what happens between Matt Stafford and Joe Burrow.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)
“I love the story of Cincinnati making its first Super Bowl since 1989. But I think they’ll need a truly special game from Joe Burrow to pull this one out. A lot comes down to the major mismatch that is the Rams’ DL against the Bengals’ OL. With the Rams (-4) having the upper hand in the trenches, I have to choose them against the spread.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are headed to the Super Bowl as underdogs and they definitely have something to prove. This is a very evenly matched game, but I am confidently picking Cincinnati (+4) because of their three-headed monster of WRs and the explosiveness of Joe Mixon this season. Joe Burrow has experience with winning championship games, and he is bringing that swagger with him on Sunday. The Rams’ offense runs through Cooper Kupp, but that is not going to cut it for this matchup.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)
“Cincinnati (+4) was getting points against the Titans and Chiefs and we obviously know how that turned out. Even though this is a ‘neutral site’ the Rams will be playing in their home stadium, however, that didn’t impact the Bengals in their pursuit of getting to this point. With the way the postseason has gone and how Cincinnati has been playing, I expect this to be a close game. Take the Bengals and the points.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
View more picks against the spread from many different experts
Q2. Are you more confident in picking the over or under?
Over: 48.5
“The offensive talent for both of these teams is too good to be ignored. Both the Rams and Bengals averaged 27 points per game in the regular season, which was good for the seventh-best in the league. Over the last 13 Super Bowls, nine of them eclipsed this total, and of the four that didn’t, one of them fell short by half of a point.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
“The Bengals and Rams have fairly solid defensive units, but they both have even more impressive offensive units. I envision this game being a shootout between two very confident QBs. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase have been two of the best WRs in the NFL this season and they are going to show their star power on the field Sunday. I am confidently picking the over at 48.5 for the Super Bowl.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)
“With the total currently set at 48.5, I love the over in this game. Both teams are prolific on offense and have been red-hot during these playoffs. With two weeks to prepare, I don’t see either of these offenses slowing down anytime soon. I’m expecting big plays, with the potential of both teams to score early and often as it should be a high-scoring game. To the overs club!”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)
“We should see the over 48.5 hit here. I predict that the final score is barely over. The Rams win the Super Bowl 28-21 for a total of 49 points. It will be close, but we will get the over.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)
Under: 48.5
“I like the under because the Bengals have struggled to get touchdowns all postseason. They beat the Titans by kicking a bunch of field goals. No matter who wins, I think it’ll be in the low 20s and that’s good enough for the under.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)
“I think the Rams’ front can limit scoring on the Bengals’ side. The Rams could certainly top their current implied total — 26.25 — but I see this one going just under 48.5.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here
Q3. Between the available game props and player props, which one are you most confident in?
Van Jefferson: 17.5-Yard Longest Reception – Over
“My favorite play this weekend is Van Jefferson’s longest reception over 17.5 yards (-110). He has eclipsed this number 16 times this season, including twice during the playoffs. With the Bengals keying in on Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr, it will present numerous opportunities for Jefferson to beat the coverage deep for a long play.”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)
Joe Mixon: 3.5 Receptions – Over
“Mixon was efficient as a pass-catcher during the regular season, snagging ~88% of his targets. Over the past five games — including three this postseason — Mixon’s got at least four catches four times. A screen or two would help neutralize L.A.’s pass rush. And if Cincy plays from behind, Mixon should pick up some extra looks.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Joe Burrow: 36.5 Pass Attempts – Over
“Joe Burrow has hit over 36.5 pass attempts the last two games and I think this matchup will have a similar script. It’ll be hard to run against the Rams and Burrow is going to be passing as quickly as possible to not get sacked. I think they’ll also be playing from behind, which should help the over even more.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)
Joe Burrow: Scoring a Touchdown
“Burrow has a lot to prove and is coming into the Super Bowl with swagger to get it done. The Rams’ defense is going to have their hands full with Joe Mixon and the trio of star WRs and I believe that is going to give Burrow a few opportunities to run in a TD. I am confident in picking him to score a touchdown (+500) on Sunday.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)
Matthew Stafford: 281.5 Passing Yards – Over
“That seems like a high number, but keep in mind that the sportsbooks also have his pass attempts set at 36. During the season (including playoffs), when Stafford attempts 36 or more passes, he has gone over 280 yards 82% of the time.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Aaron Donald: Super Bowl MVP
“Everyone knows the best player on the Rams is Aaron Donald. He is currently +1200 to win the MVP award. The voters will have a hard time not voting for him if the Rams’ defense wins them this game. His teammate, Von Miller, won a Super Bowl MVP with the Broncos. It is now Donald’s turn.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)
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Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice.
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