Running backs are highly reliant on team context for their fantasy value. For instance, does a running back share the backfield with viable alternatives? In addition, how does their offense play in a neutral game script? Also, it doesn’t hurt to be a skilled running back with good underlying metrics. Unfortunately, the following trio of running backs has come up short regarding their efficiency of late.
Mock draft in minutes with our free fantasy football tools 
Running Backs to Avoid
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL): 46.1 ADP Underdog Pre-Draft Best Ball, RB18
According to our Fantasy Leaders tool, Elliott was the RB6 in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring during this year’s fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 17). Believe me. I’m aware of this. The Zeke apologists on football Twitter are leaning heavily on his overall positional ranking for 2021 when making a case for going back to the well in 2022. However, he was a much less impressive 15h at the position in per-game scoring.
Obviously, a repeat of an RB15 finish would be good enough to reward gamers selecting him as the RB18. However, Elliott’s underlying stats are ugly. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 58 running backs that toted the rock at least 75 times this year, Zeke was tied for 40th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (2.73 YCO/A), tied for 38th in missed tackles forced (19), and tied for 28th in 15-plus yard runs (six). It doesn’t get prettier looking at 2020 and 2021 combined, either. According to Stathead, out of 44 running backs with at least 200 rush attempts, Elliott has been 30th in yards per rush attempt (4.12).
The veteran back has been a negative in the passing attack, too. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 64 running backs with at least 20 targets in 2021, Elliott was 60th in Yards Per Route Run (0.68 Y/RR). Remarkably, it gets worse for Zeke. Behind him, Tony Pollard has been far more efficient and explosive. Thus, a change of the guard wouldn’t surprise me in 2022. Nevertheless, Elliott’s eroding numbers are reasons enough to fade him unless he falls a round or more beyond his average draft position (ADP).
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): 60.5 ADP, RB21
Jacobs was the RB13 and RB16 in per-game PPR scoring in 2021. Again, it’s not about where you finished in 2021 in scoring, but what your underlying numbers and context suggest the outlook is for 2022. When ranking players, it’s paramount to dig under the hood and project forward.
Unfortunately, Jacobs is another inefficient running back. He was 29th in YCO/A (2.84 YCO/A), tied for 20th in 15-plus yard runs (seven), and 34th in Y/RR (1.17 Y/RR) in 2021. Additionally, according to Football Outsiders, out of 50 running backs with at least 100 rushes, Jacobs was 37th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Moreover, since 2020, Jacobs has been 38th in rushing yards per attempt (3.95) and 45h in yards per target (5.38 Y/Tgt).
The 23-year-old back overcame his inefficiency this year by touching the ball 217 as a runner and 54 as a receiver. However, he benefited from the Raiders winning 10 games and often being in a neutral or good game script. I don’t believe in the Raiders winning double-digit games again this year.
Finally, he will be playing for a new coaching staff that might pick new favorites in the backfield or delineates duties differently than the previous staff did. Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots. The new head coach used multiple backs in New England’s backfield. Might he carry his running-back-by-committee approach across the country with him? It’s definitely in the range of outcomes. Therefore, I’m not counting Jacobs reprising a workhorse role, making him a bad investment around his ADP. As a result, I’d rather pick a player at another position around Jacobs’ ADP and invest in a cheaper running back later.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): 88.0 ADP, RB28
I was guilty of pedaling optimism for Edwards-Helaire entering the 2021 season. My optimism meter is running on empty for CEH from now on. The sophomore back never took over the backfield, sharing it with Darrel Williams in most of the regular season and falling behind Jerick McKinnon in the postseason.
Yes, Williams and McKinnon are unrestricted free agents. Does it matter? I don’t think so. The Chiefs might bring one or both of them back or add talent to the running back room in free agency or the draft. Regardless, CEH hasn’t earned a feature role, despite the team spending a first-round pick on him in 2020.
Further, he has been a below-average back. This year, he was 53rd in YCO/A (2.39), tied for 49th in missed tackles forced (15), tied for 45h in 10-plus yard rushes (nine), tied for 47th in 15-plus yard rushes (three), and 59th in Yards Per Route Run (0.72 Y/RR). Additionally, since debuting in 2020, he has been 21st in yards per rush attempt (4.40) and 41st in yards per target (5.53 Y/Tgt). CEH’s ceiling is probably as a committee back. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for a top-100 pick.
Get a FREE 6 month upgrade with our special offer
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
