Hard to believe that the 2021 NFL season has reached its conclusion with the Los Angeles Rams staying home at SoFi stadium to face the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. It was a season filled with parity from start to finish. Who would have guessed that the Bengals would immediately turn around their franchise and win the AFC North by drafting Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) over Penei Sewell (OT – DET)? I was undoubtedly bullish on improving the offensive line to keep Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) healthy, but his experience and trust in Chase proved to be the perfect elixir. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) proved his doubters and haters wrong by throttling the Arizona Cardinals, beating Tom Brady on the road in overtime, and grinding out a 20-17 win to defeat San Francisco for the first time in seven matchups. Both teams’ quarterbacks and defensive lines have elevated their level of play this postseason, which should make for must-see television on Sunday night.
Look ahead to the offseason, and it becomes evident that there will be another massive shakeup during free agency. Quite a few contracts are expiring on big-name players. The coaching carousel has already settled, meaning roughly a quarter of the league will have new personnel and schemes implemented throughout the offense. Each year is different, so relying on a player’s performance from a previous season isn’t always the strongest indicator of sustained value or success in the future.
I’ve gathered four quarterback prospects I’m concerned about regarding their ADP, an ambiguous situation, or their lack of consistency and usage within the offense. This article is written in the context of a half-PPR redraft league. Of course, things change quickly in the NFL. For now, let’s assume these quarterbacks stay where they currently are to find out why each of them should be avoided in 2022.
Check out our full early 2022 fantasy football draft consensus rankings
Quarterbacks to Avoid: (Half-PPR)
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): QB3/ADP: 59.1
The current drama in Arizona surrounds Kyler Murray’s decision to remove all references to the Arizona Cardinals on his personal Instagram account. In the middle of the season, Murray dealt with an ankle injury that ultimately derailed an MVP season. The third-year quarterback and former number one overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft has seemingly regressed under head coach Kliff Kingsbury despite the Cardinals improving their record and finally making the playoffs this season. Murray threw three-plus touchdowns in four games during the first eight weeks in 2021 but never surpassed two passing touchdowns after a four-game absence due to sustaining the ankle injury in a last-second loss to Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) and the Green Bay Packers in Week 8. Not to worry, Murray makes up for it with his rushing ability, right? Wrong. Murray used his legs in a bad weather game against Chicago in his first game back from injury, but this was the last week he scored as a ball carrier. Murray fell under ten carries in all six remaining games, including the playoffs, surpassing 50 rushing yards in just three of these games. A flat, disheartening performance against the Rams in the NFC Wild Card was not the way to inspire confidence within ownership. Murray is a talented player but drafting him as the QB3 in the fifth-round next season is a bit overzealous. Instead, focus on building depth at wide receiver and running back by tapping into players with high-ceiling capability like Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU), Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ), and Michael Carter (RB – NYJ).
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): QB8/ADP: 81.2
The Dallas Cowboys are mired in perpetual mediocrity. The brand is as strong and widespread as ever, but Dak Prescott did not consistently deliver strong performances in clutch moments this past season. It was remarkable to see Prescott return after rehabbing a gruesome ankle injury he sustained early in 2020. Still, his notable lack of mobility and rushing capped his upside for fantasy managers. Prescott did finish as the QB7 in half-PPR. Still, he padded his stats during the final three weeks of the regular season, racking up 12 passing touchdowns against Washington, Arizona, and Philadelphia. However, upon closer look, Prescott had 12 games with under 300 passing yards. He indeed produced several massive games, so he isn’t a bad investment in redraft leagues in 2022. It’s more about his ADP and the other players available to improve your roster in the back of the seventh round. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – LAR), Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB), Devin Singletary (RB – BUF), and Robert Woods (WR – LAR) are just a few of the high-upside prospects that take precedence over Prescott. If you want another quality passing quarterback, wait for a round to acquire Matthew Stafford. If you prefer running quarterbacks, wait for two rounds and draft Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI).
Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): QB10/ADP: 97.4
I have no idea what to make of Russell Wilson’s future in Seattle. We’re now back to the rumor mills and drumbeats of Wilson wanting to leave the Seahawks in favor of joining a big-market team. Destinations such as the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints have gained momentum, but there are also conflicting reports stating that Wilson wants to remain in Seattle with head coach Pete Carroll. Seattle is nowhere close to being in peak form to challenge for a Super Bowl, and the hiring of OC Shane Waldron from the Los Angeles Rams wound up being a disappointment in year one. Yes, Wilson did suffer a broken finger that likely impacted his play after returning from a four-game absence. However, the offense was anemic at times, and Wilson no longer relies on his legs to salvage broken plays and an intense pass rush. Instead, he got sacked three to four times per game, and his passing suffered. Before the finger injury in Week 5, Wilson had one game with over 300 passing yards. In three games, he was also held without a touchdown, passing, or rushing. Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance (QB – SF), and Justin Fields (QB – CHI) are all younger, hyper-mobile, big-armed quarterbacks with higher upside than Wilson. More importantly, they all have good situations, whereas Wilson’s future is ambiguous at best. Avoid the frustration and grab one of these other young, mobile quarterbacks. Or you can grab a quality tight end like Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) or Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) and punt on a quarterback for another round.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): QB16/ADP: 125.6
Let’s call it what it is. The Tennessee Titans offense does not run through Ryan Tannehill. Instead, it runs through Derrick Henry (RB – TEN). Tannehill had a down year after finishing as the QB7 in half-PPR formats in 2020, plummeting to QB12. The injury bug hit the Titans hard in 2021, primarily with Henry breaking a bone in his foot that severely impacted the quality of the backfield. A.J. Brown’s (WR – TEN) injury was the nail in the coffin for Tannehill’s production, as he was forced to rely on weapons such as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR – TEN), Jeremy McNichols (RB – TEN), and Geoff Swaim (TE – TEN) as some of his primary targets. When Henry, Brown, and Julio Jones (WR – TEN) were all healthy and competing against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Divisional round, it seemed like Tannehill had all of the alpha pieces back to elevate his play. Instead, he threw three interceptions, one on the first play and another on the final play, to erase any confidence left in his abilities. He could wind up finishing as a QB1 in 2022 due to his rushing upside, which is how he snuck into a QB12 finish despite seven games with under 200 passing yards. Tannehill is currently valued as the QB16 in half-PPR redraft, but you should avoid him and acquire a better passing quarterback within the first nine rounds. Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE), and Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG) are second and third-year players who have already hit strides with their development. Prospects like these offer fantasy managers greater chances of winning a league by acquiring depth and passing on mediocre quarterbacks.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.