Sometimes we obsess about things that seem shiny and new, like Beanie Babies or Nietzsche. It’s cool if we’re curious. It’s not so cool if we spend too much money or it blinds us to other possibilities. In fantasy baseball, we get obsessed with certain players too (usually for a good reason). It can be useful to put our favorite toys down and look for a similar value later in a draft. I’ve done that for you here by comparing a top player to someone else at a bargain price.
The difference in value can be driven by age, health, consistency, or experience. You should still consider these factors.
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Discounted Yordan Alvarez (LF,DH – HOU)
Get your Yordan Alvarez here! I'm showing you last year's numbers. Steamer assumes Alvarez will hit more homers at age 24 than Martinez at 34. Why? Fearing mortality will never lead to glory in fantasy baseball! I see a similar K%, BB%, and ISO. They're both in good lineups. I still believe J.D. can do in the seventh round what Yordan can in the third.
Discounted Pete Alonso (1B - NYM)
Alonso won the Home Run Derby. As a rookie, he probably carried managers to a league trophy. He's also got a cool nickname. I understand why you might look at this comparison and throw a tomato, but let me add one thing. Alonso had 637 plate appearances last year. Schwarber had 471. Yes, yes, Alonso may be improving, but Schwarbs isn't an old dog. He's learning too. That's fourth round versus 10th round.
Discounted Jose Abreu (1B - CWS)
I prioritized an older player over a younger player with Martinez and Alvarez. Now let's prioritize the younger player. These numbers are uncanny. What's even more eye-popping? Check the first three columns of the Steamer projection below. This is a 6/12 Round split.
Discounted Marcus Semien (2B,SS - TEX)
You're probably thinking this is not a good comparison, but let's face facts. The fantasy baseball community predicts regression for Semien. He had over 700 at-bats (many at minor league ballparks). Texas tends to favor pitchers. Swanson had 653 at-bats. That's also a lot, but their numbers will be comparable if these two players meet somewhere in the middle. Compare Semien's Steamer projection to Swanson's 2021 season, and check that ADP.
Discounted Alex Bregman (3B - HOU)
I love Bregman, but this comparison is useful to managers because of position scarcity. My first thought was, "What about Donaldson's regular leg issues?" Except now many managers are worried about Bregman's wrist.
Let's throw in another long shot. I would like to suggest that Steamer has it wrong for another player. See below. Escobar can repeat 2021. There is a difference with AVG/OBP between Bregman and these two gentlemen, but it's Round six versus Round 15 for Donaldson/Escobar.
Discounted Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS)
In case you missed it in my other article, "An Undervalued Player from Each Position," I won't say much here. It's just a reminder that Adames might be the next Bogaerts in Milwaukee based on Steamer.
Discounted Max Fried (SP - ATL)
Let me give you a couple of pitchers. Max Fried has been doing it longer in the Show, so he'll have the edge. Valdez had fewer innings last year, but it was an index-finger injury. No big deal. Look at that groundball rate, and bask in the slightly better projections for the bargain player. Plus, if you put him on your team, you get to yell "Framber!" like a lumberjack yells "Timber!" every time he gives you a profit.
Discounted Lucas Giolito (SP - CWS)
Finally, the question for Garcia is whether or not he can repeat. Giolito is the 12th pitcher off the board according to FantasyPros rankings, and Garcia is the 48th pitcher. His fluctuating ADP probably proves many people don't know where to rank him. Don't ignore this possible late-round gem.
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