The 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am featured an entertaining mix of celebrities, amateurs, and professionals competing across three courses at the iconic Pebble Beach venue south of San Jose, California. At one point on Sunday, there were four to five players tied for first, but 32-year old American Tom Hoge pulled ahead at Pebble Beach Golf Links with a blistering four birdies on the back-nine. Others such as Jordan Spieth, Troy Merritt, and Patrick Cantlay generated great production and hung around with finishes of T4 or better despite being unable to mount a comeback to force a playoff.
The PGA Tour shifts southeast to Phoenix, Arizona, for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open. After beginning with back-to-back tournaments in Hawaii, the Tour made its home in California across the previous three weeks. Multiple courses were rotated to create an added layer of difficulty. TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is the only course that will compete throughout the four rounds at the WM Phoenix Open. It will have a traditional cut enforced after the first two rounds, weeding out most of the 132 players in the field before the sun sets in the desert on Friday night.
I’ve gathered six of my favorite prospects to target when constructing DFS lineups at the WM Phoenix Open this weekend. Not every single player is a must-add, but it’s important to note that lineups tend to hit or miss depending on how the salary-saving options fare. Rostering a blue-chip prospect is excellent, but you’ll need the cheaper players to deliver birdies by the bundle or wind up with a T30 finish or higher. You can also acquire two blue-chip prospects to inflate your production via birdies and eagles, but that means the remaining four players will all have to outperform their projected totals. This is why I prefer to go heavy on one blue-chip and then distribute the remaining salary amongst outstanding, solid players who won’t burn you in the long run.
As always, let’s prepare now to enjoy the weekend and watch our lineups launch into the green!
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Previous Winners
- 2021 – Brooks Koepka (-19)
- 2020 – Webb Simpson (-17)
- 2019 – Rickie Fowler (-17)
- 2018 – Gary Woodland (-18)
- 2017 – Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
Course Overview
TPC Scottsdale is one of the lushest green courses that the PGA Tour offers. Specifically, its Stadium Course will host all four rounds during the Waste Management Phoenix Open. No changes have been implemented since 2021, as the course remains a par 71 that runs just over 7,260 yards. The greens measure out to a 7,000 square foot average, which led to high GIR percentages a year ago. They also run pretty fast at 12 feet via the Tour’s Stimpmeter, a tool used to measure the velocity of a ball that simulates putts on a particular green.
The greens are Bermudagrass, and the primary rough is relatively low at two and a half inches. Bodies of water don’t exist on the front nine, but the back nine introduces roughly six or seven holes that add water as an extra challenge. Errant shots will likely find mulch, cactus, or other dry-weather plants that could obscure the ball and create difficult recovery shots. Three par 5s and four par 3s offer players the opportunity to enhance or ruin their scorecard, which many will be familiar with if they can make the cut after two rounds.
The course is deceptively hilly, meaning that a nicely struck driver or iron could hit a dip and settle in an inconvenient spot on the fairways. Sand bunkers also flank the majority of the greens, becoming more prominent on the back nine alongside the ominous bodies of water. It’s a course that rewards strong tee shots more than anything else, so make sure you avoid rostering players who struggle in strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained tee-to-green.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Birdie Average
- GIR percentage
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400)
Hideki Matsuyama is one of the highest upside players to acquire in lineups at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The 29-year old native of Japan is currently ranked first in the FedExCup standings and tenth in the Official World Golf Rankings due to two wins at the ZOZO Championship and Sony Open, the latter of which occurred just three weeks ago. Matsuyama has enjoyed massive success at TPC Scottsdale, earning wins in 2016 and 2017. Last year, Matsuyama plummeted to a T42 finish but managed a T16 finish in 2020. He’s had too much success here, so expect him to avenge his poor outing from a year ago, especially with a couple of weeks to rest.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,100)
25-year old American Scottie Scheffler has been playing an excellent brand of golf to begin the 2022 PGA Tour season. Scheffler has two finishes inside the top five and recently went T25 and T20 at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open. Scheffler is converting over 74 percent of his greens in regulation, which ranks 25th on Tour, boasting a 4.96 birdie average. His T7 finish at the WM Phoenix Open last year should excite you enough to plug him into lineups with confidence. His salary is undervalued, especially considering that he ranks 44th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 60th in strokes gained putting. It’s not often you’ll find a high-floor player who can deliver a massive ceiling at a discount, but this is the case with Scheffler.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,700)
Matt Fitzpatrick is coming off of an impressive T6 finish at Pebble Beach. The 27-year old Englishman has only competed in three events this season. Still, Pebble Beach was his first return to action in three months, which is an encouraging sign considering he avoided bogeys and netted four birdies during the final round at Pebble Beach Golf Links. This was the most challenging course to conquer, and Fitzpatrick breezed through it, so what’s to say he won’t be able to do the same on an unfamiliar course at TPC Scottsdale? It rewards players with strong tee shots and strokes gained ability, which is where Fitzpatrick excels. He’s a fantastic salary saver who could wind up with a T20 finish or better if he can extend his momentum from Pebble Beach.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Patrick Cantlay ($11,800)
One of the PGA’s best golfers at the moment is undeniably Patrick Cantlay. The 29-year old American is the reigning PGA Champion after winning the FedExCup playoffs last season, and he has not stopped dominating courses in 2022. Cantlay has only compared in three events this year, but all of them have yielded ninth place or higher in terms of finishes. TPC Scottsdale plays right into Cantlay’s skill set, as he ranks 30th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 43rd in strokes gained putting, and 11th in strokes gained off-the-tee. He averages a ridiculously high six birdies per round and is 17th in GIR percentage. Don’t let the high salary make you pivot off of one of the most consistent, high-floor prospects available on the slate this weekend. You cannot go wrong with Cantlay leading your lineups.
Bubba Watson ($10,200)
Perhaps Bubba Watson is the most rested player at TPC Scottsdale who has past success. The 43-year old American is phenomenal with strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained tee-to-green while packing a punch with his driving distance. Watson has finished inside the top five at the Waste Management Phoenix Open five separate times, and he’s also managed to finish T25 or higher in ten of his 15 appearances at the tournament. As if this wasn’t enough to build his case, Watson also converts 67 percent of his greens in regulation, ranking within the top 50 on Tour. He’s not quite a salary saver, but he’s undervalued and has tons of success. Combine this with the massive amount of rest he has entering Thursday’s opening round, and Watson becomes one of the most intriguing prospects to target in lineups.
Luke List ($9,600)
We all saw Luke List celebrate his first career victory at the Farmers Insurance Open a couple of weeks ago in southern California. What many might not know is that the 37-year old American has assembled an impressive resume across nine events this season, earning finishes of T7, T11, T10, T22, and first in five of his previous six events. Last year, List earned a T30 finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a T25 finish in 2020. He didn’t compete at Pebble Beach, so List should have enough rest to replenish his body for four days at TPC Scottsdale. His game fits the course, as List ranks sixth in strokes gained off-the-tee, second in stroked gained tee-to-green, and sixth in driving distance. He needs to improve his putting, but his irons and driver blend nicely to make him a legitimate contender this weekend. At $9,600 on FanDuel, List qualifies as a salary-saver who can easily outperform his projected totals.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
