The theatrics of the Waste Management Phoenix Open did not transfer to The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club this past weekend, as 23-year old Chilean Joaquin Niemann earned only his second career victory on the PGA Tour. He got off to a phenomenal start in the first two rounds, carding 63-63 to earn a score of 16-under-par, putting him leagues above the rest of the field. Niemann’s lead was so significant his final round score of 71 (E) still afforded him a two-stroke victory over Collin Morikawa (-17) and Cameron Young (-17) at the conclusion of the event on Sunday.
My recommendations at The Genesis Invitational yielded a mixed bag of results, as Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson both missed the cut. However, Rory McIlroy and Max Homa both earned T10 (-10) finishes, while Will Zalatoris (T26/-6) and Hideki Matsuyama (T39/-4) managed to salvage decent finishes of their own. Morikawa, Adam Scott, and Chez Reavie shined brightest on Sunday, going five or six-under-par to climb the leaderboards in the most pressure-packed round.
The PGA Tour will finally leave the West Coast of the United States behind and travel across the country to compete at The Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The course, PGA National (Champion), is among the most difficult on Tour, as there are numerous bodies of water, sand bunkers, and multi-tiered greens to challenge even the best golfers. With the field containing fewer star players than previous tournaments, expect many undervalued prospects and low-ranking players in the FedExCup standings to rise up the leaderboards.
As always, I’ve gathered several players who possess the talent and upside necessary to launch DFS lineups into the green by the end of the weekend. Here we go!
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Previous Winners
- 2021 – Matt Jones (-12)
- 2020 – Sungjae Im (-6)
- 2019 – Keith Mitchell (-9)
- 2018 – Justin Thomas (-8)
- 2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
Course Overview
PGA National Resort & Spa is located in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, and it will be the site where the competition begins at the Champion Course on Thursday. Tipping at 7,125 yards as a par 70, only two par 5s offer a brief respite from the challenging par 4s that comprise two-thirds of the course. Four par 3s, including two during the infamous three-hole section of the course called “The Bear Trap, begins at hole 15, challenging players during their most weary and vulnerable condition.
It’s the 50th anniversary of The Honda Classic this time around, and the rough has grown higher than last year, measuring at three inches and consisting of Bermudagrass. Factoring in the additional sand bunkers, bodies of water, and directional wind patterns paint a seemingly impossible task ahead of the field of 144. However, players who can maintain a high average in strokes gained tee-to-green and consistently convert a high GIR percentage will be considered early favorites. Hot, humid temperatures with minimal precipitation are the projected forecast, but this doesn’t do much to reduce the difficulty at the Champion Course.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Sand Save percentage
- Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage
- Birdie Average
- Driving Accuracy
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Daniel Berger ($10,400)
While he’s never won The Honda Classic, Daniel Berger has come close twice in previous years, earning a second-place finish in 2015 and a T4 finish in 2020. He’s only competed in three events this season, including a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open a couple of weeks ago, which is why he’s cheaper to acquire than Joaquin Niemann, Louis Oosthuizen, and Sungjae Im. Oddsmakers are giving the 28-year old the second-highest odds to win this weekend at +1600, so I certainly want to invest in a player with fresh legs and past success at a challenging course like Champion. Berger has the second-highest driving accuracy at 72 percent, converts 72 percent of his greens in regulation, and is ranked first in sand save percentage. He also is 24th in total strokes gained categories, meaning he’s dominant with his irons. This all adds to Berger returning value even at a high salary, so pay up and add one of the best blue-chip prospects available on the slate.
Billy Horschel ($9,600)
Florida native Billy Horschel is a legitimate contender in his backyard at Champion. The 35-year old has been nothing short of consistent in five events to start the 2022 PGA Tour, going T23, T36, T11, and T6 most recently at the WM Phoenix Open. Horschel has had success at Champion, dating back to 2017, where he earned a T4 finish at seven-under-par. He also has finishes of T8 in 2016 and T16 back in 2019, while plummeting to a T42 finish most recently in 2020. Based on several strong finishes in the past and his consistency in events this season, Horschel is a valuable asset to acquire in DFS lineups ahead of Thursday’s opening round in Palm Beach Gardens.
Mackenzie Hughes ($8,300)
It’s been a volatile year for 31-year old Canadian Mackenzie Hughes. He has missed two cuts across his previous three events while earning a T16 finish at Pebble Beach between these poor outings. Earlier in the season, Hughes went T4 at ZoZo and was runner-up at The RSM Classic, which is why he still occupies the 25th rank in the FedExCup. However, Hughes has been good at Champion during his last two appearances, earning a T36 finish in 2021 and securing runner-up to Sungjae Im with five-under-par in 2020. Hughes doesn’t have many metrics considered “eye-popping,” but he is terrific in strokes gained putting and strokes gained around the green, leading to a 4.61 birdie average per round. Of course, there is risk baked into Hughes, which is why his salary is so low at $8,300. There are other salary-saving options, but not many have fared like Hughes at Champion, so invest in him as a good value prospect who simultaneously functions as a salary-saver.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Louis Oosthuizen ($11,600)
One of the Tour’s most beloved players will be competing at The Honda Classic this weekend, but he’s only available to roster at a steep salary. 39-year old Louis Oosthuizen is now synonymous with second-place finishes after amassing four during the Tour last season and eight top-ten finishes to finish 14th in the FedExCup standings. Now, he returns, with only four events played this season, including a T14 finish at the WM Phoenix Open a couple of weeks ago. Oosthuizen missed the cut in 2020 and did not compete in 2021 at Champion. However, he did rattle off finishes of T21 and T24 in 2017 and 2018. He possesses an uncanny finesse with his irons, which is why he ranks inside the top 30 in four of the six strokes gained categories measured on Tour. Perhaps his most attractive statistic is that Oosthuizen ranks first in GIR conversion at 78.2 percent. This is yet another way of measuring his incredible skillset with irons necessary to handle the Champion Course rigors. So pay up and watch Oosthuizen flood your lineups with points galore.
Patrick Reed ($10,800)
It’s been quite a rollercoaster season for 31-year old American Patrick Reed. After earning T2 and T3 finishes earlier in the year, Reed has only one top 25 finish since the New Year began, earning a T15 finish at Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii six weeks ago. Then, he missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational after a horrendous six-over-par in the first round. So why am I willing to invest in Reed at The Honda Classic this weekend? Yes, past success. Not within the last couple of seasons, but back in 2014 and 2015, when Reed finished T24 and T7. He has not appeared at the Champion Course since missing the cut in 2018, so he’s had time to regroup and prepare for its demanding stretch of long par 4s. Reed is good with strokes gained putting and saves 54 percent of his bunker shots while also averaging 4.31 birdies per round this season. This all equates to Reed being able to scramble after an errant drive or iron, which is vital to succeed this weekend. He’s not a value in terms of a cheap salary, but he’s an intriguing candidate I’m willing to invest in based on past success and a unique skill set that syncs well with Champion.
Sepp Straka ($8,800)
After missing the cut in his first appearance at The Honda Classic in 2019, 28-year old Sepp Straka is quietly stringing together a series of solid finishes entering the opening round at Champion. The Austrian has not yet earned a top-ten finish in 13 events. Still, he’s improving after missing five cuts earlier in the season, earning a T16 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T15 finish at The Genesis Invitational last weekend. Straka showed grit and mental fortitude after producing a three-over-par score in his opening round at Riviera, carding rounds of 68-66-68 to climb up the leaderboard. He showed this same improvement when returning to The Honda Classic in 2020 and 2021, earning finishes of T27 and T33 following the missed cut in 2019. Straka is not dominant with his irons, nor does he boast any other statistical metrics, yet he’s among the best salary-saving options to invest in during this slate. Roster a high-floor player like Straka and spend your money elsewhere on higher ceiling players.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
