Almost every fantasy-relevant player is worth selecting at a certain point in the draft. However, value is relative. Inevitably, that means some players are overvalued. The following three players stood out to me regarding their present average draft position (ADP). It’s early in the 2022 fantasy football cycle. So, I’m not dismissing the possibility of ever drafting these three players. Instead, I’m fading them presently.
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Overvalued Players
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): 72.7 ADP Underdog Pre-Draft Best Ball, QB7
First, kudos to Prescott for returning from a gruesome season-ending ankle injury in 2020. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he was tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (37) and was seventh in passing yards per game (278.1) and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.34) in 2021. Obviously, those are stellar marks.
Unfortunately, Prescott stopped running in his return from ankle surgery. As a result, he set new career lows in rush attempts per game (3.0), rushing yards per game (9.1), and rushing touchdowns (one). Therefore, his ceiling is drastically reduced unless he reverts to his pre-surgery form.
According to our Fantasy Football Leaders tool, he was the QB9 in overall points and QB11 in points per game during the 2021 fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 17). Prescott’s 2021 fantasy finishes speak to the limits of fantasy utility even if you’re a top-10 passer in multiple measures if you don’t add anything on the ground.
Prescott’s passing ability makes him a rock-solid low-end starter in 12-team fantasy leagues. However, he’s being over-drafted as a mid-tier starting fantasy quarterback. Additionally, quarterbacks I think are in the same tier as Prescott are markedly cheaper, and there are intriguing high-ceiling outside the top-100 picks I’d rather double-dip selecting than popping Prescott inside the top-75.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): 24.6 ADP, RB12
Spending a pick at the back of the second round or top of the third round on Barkley is banking on being further removed from reconstructive knee surgery being the magical elixir for him. The second pick in the 2018 NFL Draft was electrifying as a rookie, amassing an NFL-high 2,028 yards from scrimmage, scoring 15 touchdowns, and corraling 91 receptions. Barkley wasn’t as sharp in his sophomore campaign, playing in 13 games instead of 16, totaling 1,441 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns, and 52 receptions.
Sadly, 2019 is the last time Barkley was a game-changing back. He was injured in his second game in 2020 and wasn’t the same player in his comeback in 2021. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 58 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in 2021, Barkley was 43rd in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (2.69 YCO/A), 37th in missed tackles forced (20), tied for 45h in 10-plus yard runs (nine), and tied for 36th in 15-plus yard runs (five).
Other stats providers didn’t paint a pretty picture of his work as a runner, either. According to Football Outsiders, out of 50 running backs with at least 100 rushes, Barkley was 45th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, out of 50 qualified runners, Barkley was 46th in attempts per broken tackle (40.5).
Unfortunately, he didn’t make up for his shortcomings as a runner through the air. Instead, he was awful in that facet of the game as well. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 64 running backs targeted at least 20 times in 2021, Barkley was 45th in Yards Per Route Run (1.02 Y/RR). Barkley was also 46th out of 57 backs targeted at least 25 times in DVOA. Finally, out of 62 qualified players, he was tied with the likes of Sony Michel, Mike Davis, Jamaal Williams, and Rex Burkhead with 4.2 yards per touch.
I hope another offseason of recovery and preparation for the 2022 campaign will rejuvenate Barkley. Still, he was dreadful last year. As a result, I can’t justify picking him where he’s going currently. However, if training camp and preseason reports are good or his ADP slides, I’m willing to revisit my stance on drafting Barkley.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): 21.3 ADP, WR9
Lamb is an excellent receiver. However, I don’t see a top-10 receiver. According to Stathead, among receivers in 2021, Lamb was 15th in receiving yards per game (68.9), 20th in receptions (79), and tied for 18th in touchdown receptions (six). Yes, those were rock-solid rankings at receiver. Still, he wasn’t a top-10 receiver in any of those three categories.
To Lamb’s credit, he was efficient. Out of 72 receivers targeted at least 50 times, Lamb was 13th in Yards Per Route Run (2.06 Y/RR). However, yet again, that was not a top-10 mark among his peers. Nevertheless, it’s not the most alarming aspect of his statistical profile.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Lamb was tied for 32nd in target share (17.8%) and 24th in Intended Air Yards (1,302). The second-year wideout’s target share in 2021 was lower than his 18.5% share in his rookie campaign. Moreover, Lamb didn’t impressively close 2021. In his last 10 games, he had more than 75 scrimmage yards just three times, reached double-digit targets only two times, and reached paydirt in a pathetic one contest.
I won’t spend a second-round pick on Lamb. So he’ll have to slip into the mid-third round for me to scoop him up in fantasy drafts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
