From an NL-only mock draft that I just did to a strategic overview for the same format, we’re making sure that you’re ready if you are either a seasoned mono-league player or if you are dipping your toes in for the first time.
League-specific leagues are a lot of fun, but they are a challenge.
The player pool is cut in half, and if (When? Hopefully? Please, God!) a new CBA is agreed to, both leagues should have level playing fields when it comes to the use of the DH.
What we’ll do here in this article is look at 12 players that you should consider drafting at various points in the draft. We’ll look at four players with an ADP inside the top 100, four between 101 and 200, and then four who are going after pick 200.
Before we get into the players, we need to talk about some base-level strategies.
Only-leagues force you to change your strategy. If you fade closers regularly, you have to change your approach. The same goes with steals. You need to keep in mind that the options won’t be as readily available to you off waivers as they are in mixed leagues, so you have to invest in the draft.
In mixed leagues, the shallower the league, the more you can take chances on upside. The deeper the league, you need balance and depth and can’t afford many slip-ups. It’s true in mono-leagues, too. Boring is good here.
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Early Targets (1-100 ADP)
Austin Riley (3B – ATL): ADP 18
Oh, really going deep here to start. I know, I know. We’ll get there, Charlie. But third base is so shallow in regular leagues, but in NL-only, it’s insanely shallow. After the big three of Manny Machado (3B – SD), Riley, and Nolan Arenado (3B – STL), you’re looking at Chris Taylor (UTL – LAD) (based on ADP) as your next-best option.
I’m investing in the position early this year.
Brendan Rodgers (2B/SS – COL): ADP 83
Trevor Story (SS – FA) is gone. Rodgers is going to make the loss hurt a little less, as he’s in prime position for a breakout in 2022. His NL-only ADP is lower than I expected it to be, and he’s in a great spot to return value.
What I like most about Rodgers is that in 2021, he performed better on the road than he did in Coors. That is fantastic when we are talking about translating his solid season (which it was) over the course of 162 (please, MLB) games and 81 at home.
He’ll be drafted in the top 50 overall for 2023.
Ranger Suarez (SP/RP – PHI): ADP 92
I’m buying in on Suarez, and while I like to typically explain my reasoning, I’m going to let these two tweets do the talking for me.
Buy in.
Alec Bohm (3B – PHI): ADP 97
It feels like we see this story play out pretty often. A rookie comes up for a sightly extended run and performs pretty well. He has a ton of hype the following year, and he bombs. The next year, his stock drops, and he becomes a solid value as a post-hype sleeper.
That’s Bohm this year. The issue with him last year is that every pitch he hit seemed to go right into the ground. His defense is also bad, but we only care about the offense here.
He still has a good pedigree and I’m fine taking him here in an NL-only league hoping for a rebound.
Deep Targets (101-200 ADP)
Gavin Lux (2B – LAD): ADP 108
Have you noticed a theme yet? We are all about the post-hype sleepers and third baseman here (more on that to come), but for now, we look at Lux. With Corey Seager (SS – TEX) gone, Max Muncy (1B/2B – LAD) hurt, and the hopeful DH arriving to the National League, Lux is in a prime position to put it all together this year.
We saw spurts of it last year from him, which was finally great to see, and he should get every chance to show that he deserves everyday at-bats. It’s close to now or never for Lux, but 70 FV prospects don’t grow on trees, and they don’t just suddenly become back ballplayers overnight, either.
Evan Longoria (3B – SF): ADP 112
Have I mentioned that third base is thin this year? I was doing my daily read of Baseball Prospectus today, and I was looking at their third-base articles. Elijah Ackerman wrote about Longoria and how he’s aging gracefully.
In the piece, Ackerman mentions that an encouraging aspect of his game aging well is that he still smoked fastballs last year, as “Longoria slugged .638 against fastballs a year ago, the same clip as Corey Seager and a point below teammate Brandon Crawford (SS – SF).”
I’m in on Longo for 2022.
Lane Thomas (OF – WAS): ADP 146
As you saw with my NL-Only draft (that wasn’t so great!), outfield dries up pretty quickly. Last year, Thomas got his chance to show that he belonged after the Nats dealt Kyle Schwarber (1B/LF – FA) to the Red Sox.
Thomas, in turn, hit .270 with seven home runs and four steals in 45 games with Washington with a .364 OBP.
Thomas is quick, too, so while the four steals don’t seem like a lot, a 15-20 steal season doesn’t seem out of the cards. And we know how scarce steals are this year.
Mike Moustakas (1B/3B – CIN): ADP 195
Listen, he was bad last season. Like, he was really bad. I was in a home run-only league where we had to fill each position, and I took him as my first-round pick due to position scarcity.
He was bad.
But let’s not pretend like he doesn’t exist and isn’t going to play regularly, either. He was solid to start the season, and then he was hampered by a foot injury down the stretch.
With the ballpark and the power he possesses, it’s a mistake not to draft him at this price point. At best, he cranks 30 home runs and you got a draft-day steal. At worst, you invested a late pick in him and you cut him.
Sleepers (201-plus ADP)
Robinson Canó (2B – NYM) : ADP 202
Look, we don’t know what’s going to happen with Canó. He could DH regularly. He could start elsewhere. He might be a bench bat. Or he could get cut and retire.
But Steamer essentially took his 2019 season and said “this looks good” with their projections. All models – besides ZIPS – have him between 328 and 483 plate appearances. I’ll take 12-15 home runs with a .260 average as a utility or bench player.
Art Warren (RP – CIN): ADP 236
Last year, my go-to preseason target for saves was Emmanuel Clase (RP – CLE). He was a forgotten man, and I wasn’t in on James Karinchak (RP – CLE).
This year, it’s Warren who I am all over. You have to invest more draft capital to get him than you did Clase, and he’s already on people’s radars, so expect the ADP to climb even more.
He’s a strikeout machine, and I’m not sold on Lucas Sims (RP – CIN) holding the job down in Cincinnati. Frankly, I’m not sold on anyone holding it down because, well, David Bell, but it should be Art of War (coined by Greg Jewett, a friend of the program).
Tyler Beede (SP – SF): ADP 337
You want deep options? Well, these last two are deep.
Beede has thrown exactly one inning since 2019, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.
Now, Beede had the top-pitcher pedigree, but never really lived up to it. But in 2019, there were some encouraging signs from start to start.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen what the Giants have done with their pitchers. From Anthony DeSclafani (SP – SF) to Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR), to Logan Webb (SP – SF). OK, Webb is young and just good.
The others, though, were veterans who never really put it together. Alex Cobb (SP – SF) and Alex Wood (SP – SF) fall into that category.
Tyler Beede does, too.
Ryan Noda (1B/OF – LAD): ADP N/A
OK, maybe I’m getting carried away here. Who is Ryan Noda? Why doesn’t he have an ADP?
Noda is an old prospect (25) and he came over to the Dodgers from the Blue Jays in the Ross Stripling (SP/RP – TOR) trade.
And like so many others do, he mashed as soon as he came to Los Angeles.
In Double-A last year, Noda hit 29 home runs in 475 plate appearances while slashing .250/.383/.521 from the left side. While the strikeout rate (26.7 percent) was high, so was the walk rate (15.6 percent).
The Dodgers are crowded, and while he was at an advanced age last year, I truly believe that Noda has a DH-capable bat whether it’s for the Dodgers or if he gets dealt to someone else.
Just remember the name for this year in the deepest of deep leagues.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.