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High BABIP Players from 2021: Lucky or Legit? (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

High BABIP Players from 2021: Lucky or Legit? (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

I admit it. I’m kind of a stats nerd. Mock me if you must, but stats have helped me in fantasy sports for many years. Baseball, in particular, is replete with stats. Some of the so-called “advanced metrics” require a Ph.D. in mathematics to understand, but others are pretty straightforward. One of the simpler yet still meaningful statistics is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). BABIP is just what it sounds like – a player’s batting average on a plate appearance that doesn’t end in a walk, strikeout, HBP, catcher’s interference, or home run.

For fantasy baseball purposes, the notion is that a player coming off of a year with a high BABIP may see his batting average fall the following season due to “regression to the norm.” This is often the case; however, some hitters can maintain a high BABIP season over season. Usually, these players are either fast or hit the ball hard regularly.

In preparation for the 2022 season (whenever it may come), I pulled the top ten hitters with the highest BABIP in 2021 (minimum 500 plate appearances). For each, I list their BABIP and batting average from last year, along with their career BABIP and BA before last season below. The goal is to determine whether they were lucky in 2021, and hence regression may be coming, or whether their batting averages were “legit.”

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