The NFL offseason often creates new value for players in fantasy football. Free agency, the Draft, and injuries fuse into one massive force that causes fantasy managers to re-evaluate a player’s future outlook and whether or not production will dip or rise based on finishes from last season. This is precisely why so many fantasy managers and NFL fans, in general, anticipate the offseason just as much, if not more, than the actual game itself.
There is still so much left to be determined in late February. March ushers in the free agency period that provides plenty of notable players the opportunity to sign new contracts with different teams, which often steal headlines and flip the value of several players on however many teams are involved with a signing or trade. For example, Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) and Jared Goff (QB – DET) switching places excited the fantasy football community, leading to the Los Angeles Rams winning Super Bowl LVI. This is just one of many examples to use, but it’s important because the free agency period has increasingly become a hotter market. It caters to the wants and needs of prominent skill players who are either ready to pursue a ring or earn more money.
I will focus on undervalued wide receivers and make a case for why each player deserves strong consideration at their current Average Draft Position (ADP) as it stands in late February.
ADP courtesy of FantasyPros.
Check out our full early 2022 fantasy football draft consensus rankings
Early Undervalued Wide Receivers: (Half-PPR)
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT): WR12/ADP: 32.4
It’s a new era in Pittsburgh with the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. Don’t let this fact deter you from pursuing Diontae Johnson in 2022. Johnson is the definitive WR1 for the Steelers and will continue to receive heavy target volume with a different quarterback. Johnson played 84 percent of snaps in 2021, affording him an additional 14 percent to draw targets compared to second-year wideout Chase Claypool (WR – PIT). While Johnson has the slighter frame at 5-10, 183 pounds, he’s elusive and has a nose for the end zone, scoring eight touchdowns in 16 regular-season games. Fantasy managers who may be concerned about his shallow 6.87 yards per target should recognize that Roethlisberger’s arm could not muster accuracy downfield. This will change as long as Mason Rudolph (QB – PIT) is not the quarterback under center come Week 1. Johnson finished as the WR9 in half-PPR in 2021, which was a drastic improvement from a WR22 finish in 2020. He’s only getting better and is entering his fourth year in the league, so take advantage of his late third-round value and draft a WR1 who could finish inside the top-five with an upgrade at quarterback in 2022.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): WR14/ADP: 36.1
After making it to the Super Bowl, Cincinnati Bengals’ skilled players have become a hot commodity. However, wide receiver Tee Higgins was overshadowed by rookie Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) in 2021, which is why Higgins’ value still holds strong appeal. He did miss three regular-season games but still finished as the WR22, despite competing with a generational talent like Chase. There was a stretch of six games from Week 5 to Week 11 where Higgins failed to score a touchdown while only drawing double-digit targets once during these six games. It’s important to keep in mind he returned from a shoulder injury in Week 5, where he had to adjust after missing the previous two weeks. Chase also doubled the number of touchdowns (13) on only 18 more targets than the six touchdowns Higgins finished with. This means positive touchdown regression is due for Higgins in his third season. Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) is an elite quarterback, and he will likely be afforded more help along the offensive line through free agency and the Draft, meaning Higgins stock is set to explode in 2022. Burrow can support two WR1s within the scheme, especially with better protection, so don’t think you’re reaching by drafting Higgins at the beginning of the fourth round.
Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): WR23/ADP: 61.1
2021 was the definition of a rebuilding year for the New York Jets, but they nailed their Draft, selecting former Ole Miss wideout Elijah Moore with the 34th overall pick. The rookie got off to a slow start, failing to draw double-digit targets until Week 11, which allowed him to generate several impressive performances before suffering a season-ending quad injury against Philadelphia in Week 13, eliminating him from building on the momentum he garnered mid-season. A carousel of quarterbacks, including rookie Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ), created an additional layer of difficulty for Moore to deliver WR3 numbers or better. Yet, he still finished as the WR48 in only 11 games. Moore earned his first WR3 finish with a rushing touchdown in Week 7 but began to score receiving touchdowns at a steady clip between Weeks 9 and 13. Moore collected three WR1 finishes during this stretch, including the overall WR1 in Week 9. Even if his ADP rises into the fifth round, which it almost certainly will by redraft season, Moore is worth the investment. Barring injury, Moore has the talent and opportunity to finish as a high-end WR2 in his second season.
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL): WR34/ADP: 92.5
Contrary to popular belief, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown saw his target volume dramatically increase in 2021, finishing with 146 targets compared to only 100 totaled in 2020. Brown turned these additional opportunities into his first 1,000-yard season despite playing with backup quarterbacks Tyler Huntley (QB – BAL) and Josh Johnson (QB – BAL). He enters his fourth year in the league with numbers that have improved each season while getting J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) and Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) back fully healthy to form a two-headed monster in the backfield. The importance of these two players and how they will affect Brown’s usage cannot be stated enough, as more eyes in the backfield create more opportunities for Brown to create separation in the secondary. He’s already equipped with top-end speed and reduced the number of drops from 2020, showing further development and maturity. The number of games that Brown saw double-digit targets is most appealing, which occurred in seven different games throughout the season. Factor in that all six of his touchdowns came in the first seven weeks, and you quickly realize how the lack of consistency under center and in the backfield affected Brown. Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) is a good prospect, but Brown and Jackson have established great chemistry, so don’t let his presence scare you from drafting Brown as a massive value in the back of the eighth round. After all, he did finish as the WR23 despite negative touchdown regression in the latter half of the 2021 season.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.