I love this time of the NFL calendar for drafting best ball squads. There’s a ton of uncertainty, with free agency on the horizon and the NFL Draft approaching. Therefore, it’s a great time to speculate and plant a flag on “your” players. The following trio is players I’m going out of my way to select in best balls.
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Players to Target
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): 24.6 ADP Underdog Pre-Draft Best Ball, QB1
According to our Fantasy Football Leaders tool, among quarterbacks that played more than five games in the fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 16) in 2020, Allen was the QB2 in per-game scoring. Last year, in the fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 17), he rose to the QB1 in per-game scoring. Additionally, he blended a high ceiling with consistency. According to the Pro Football Focus weekly finishes tool, in the 31 fantasy football weeks since 2020, Allen has finished as the QB14 or better 25 times, with a QB20 finish representing his floor, 15 top-five finishes, and six top finishes at the position.
He’s a unicorn. According to Stathead, there have been only 11 examples of quarterbacks that have passed for more than 4,000 yards and rushed for more than 400 yards, and Allen’s done so in back-to-back years. Moreover, only four of those instances have included six or more rushing touchdowns, and Allen was responsible for half of the occurrences.
Unfortunately, his offensive coordinator for all four years of his career, Brian Daboll, is the new head coach for the Giants. Nevertheless, I’m not concerned. The Bills promoted quarterback coach and passing game coordinator Ken Dorsey to offensive coordinator, keeping a familiar person in charge of the offense, saying nothing of Allen endorsing him for the position.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bills were the ninth-fastest situation neutral offense. Further, according to Sharp Football Stats, in neutral game scripts (the offensive margin was between trailing by six points and leading by six points), the Bills passed at the second-highest rate (65%). So, if Dorsey runs a similar offense, the pace and passing rate will be a boon for Allen’s continued elite production.
Allen’s skills and possible offensive environment are elite. As a result, he’s my 18th-ranked player overall. Finally, I love the conceptual idea of picking him early and selecting only one other quarterback late, allowing me to load up on wide receivers and running backs when gamers are double-dipping on quarterbacks.
Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG): 82.6 ADP, WR 39
Based on the scouting reports and data presented by the reputable sources I turn to for draft-eligible-player info, I wasn’t a huge fan of Toney as a prospect. I’ve done an about-face. First, Toney and Big Blue’s offense should benefit immensely from Joe Judge getting his pink slip and replacing offense-minded Daboll.
Second, Toney flashed in his limited opportunities last year, despite being tethered to offensive dunces Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers targeted at least 50 times in the regular and postseason combined, Toney’s 2.14 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) was tied for Tyreek Hill‘s mark for the 11th highest.
Toney was dynamic with the ball in his hands, evidenced by tying for 15th in missed tackles forced (12) and tying for eighth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (6.0 YAC/REC) among the same group of 72 receivers. Further, he showed the ability to make contested catches, hauling in five of his nine opportunities. Finally, despite most scouting reports I read and heard talking about Toney being raw as a receiver, he was versatile enough to play 60.1% of his passing snaps in the slot and 38.1% of them aligned wide, per Pro Football Focus. Thus, I’m higher than the consensus, ranking him as my WR31 and 67th player overall.
Rob Gronkowski (TE – FA): 181.7 ADP, TE22
Sometimes, the fantasy football community is too cocksure for its good. I think Gronk’s ADP is reflective of the community being too sure he’ll retire. I’m not as certain as other drafters, it appears. For one, the stud tight end’s girlfriend, Camille Kostek, doesn’t want him to retire. Second, longtime running mate Tom Brady said he hopes Gronk keeps playing. Finally, and perhaps most important, Gronk explicitly stated Joe Burrow is the non-Brady quarterback he’d most like to play with.
Does that mean he’ll end up in Cincinnati? No. However, they have the cap space to make it happen, and C.J. Uzomah, like Gronk, is an unrestricted free agent. In addition, even if he doesn’t end up in Cincinnati, if Gronk plays, he’ll presumably choose to play in a great offense.
Finally, Gronk didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. He was the TE4 in half-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring per game. Additionally, according to Stathead, he had the third-most receiving yards per game (66.8) and tied for the seventh-most touchdown receptions (six, in only 12 games) among tight ends. Also, out of 44 tight ends credited with at least 30 targets by Pro Football Focus and 45 tight ends credited with 30 targets by Stathead, Gronk was tied for fifth in Yards per Route Run (1.94 Y/RR) and fourth in Yards per Target (9.01 Y/Tgt).
If he comes back, gamers will kick themselves for allowing him to slide to TE22 in ADP. I won’t be among the gamers kicking themselves, though. I have him ranked as TE12 and 112th overall. Still, I’ll play my best ball drafts by ear, hoping to maximize the value of his bargain ADP while still avoiding getting sniped.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
