The offseason is full of optimism. However, not everything is rainbows and butterflies. So, this article is meant to throw a wet blanket on a handful of players that I’m avoiding at their present average draft position (ADP). But, of course, it’s important to avoid locking in on a take when new information presents itself. Therefore, the players I’m suggesting to avoid now might emerge as viable selections if their ADP slides in the coming months. Regardless, let’s look at a player at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end that are on my do-not-draft list.
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Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL): 60.5 ADP Underdog Early Best Ball, QB6
There’s no questioning Lamar Jackson’s ability for a spiked week. Unfortunately, however, Jackson’s 2021 campaign was a disappointment, not only because he missed five games — and most of the Week 14 game, which he left with an injury to conclude his season. Also, his spiked weeks were few and far between, passing for multiple touchdowns only two times and scoring on the ground in only one game.
According to our Fantasy Football Leaders, Jackson was the QB8 in fantasy points per game during the fantasy football season (Week 1 through Week 17). He’s being drafted ahead of his average points per game finish last year. However, it’s not prudent to blindly rank players based on the prior season’s finish.
Instead, I’m concerned about a handful of red flags in Jackson’s statistical profile. According to Pro-Football-Reference, in 2021, looking only at Jackson’s full seasons as a starter, he set new lows for passing touchdown percentage (4.2%) and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (5.78), the latter ranking 20th out of 33 qualified passers. Meanwhile, he also had the fourth-highest sack rate (nine percent) and second-highest interception rate (3.4%). According to Pro Football Focus, out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2021, Jackson was tied for the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (3.6 TWP%).
Jackson’s passing left a lot to be desired. However, he also had his least productive full season as a starter on the ground, setting lows for rushing touchdowns (two), yards per rush attempt (5.8 Y/A) and rushing yards per game (63.9). As a result, I’ll allow someone else to roll the dice on Jackson living up to the QB6 ADP.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): 8.7 ADP, RB6
Alvin Kamara set a new single-season high for rush attempts per game (18.5), obliterating his previous high of 12.9 per game in 2018. But, unfortunately, that’s where the positives end. Kamara missed four games, setting new lows with 3.7 Y/A, rushing touchdowns (four), targets (67), receptions per game (3.6) and receiving yards per game (33.8).
Now, he has to adjust to life without Sean Payton. The offensive-guru coach has stepped away from coaching the Saints. He leaves behind a dreadful offense that was 19th in scoring (21.4 points per game), lacking the resources to improve the quarterback position in a meaningful way. Thus, the Saints are an offense to avoid, namely bypassing Kamara at his top-10 ADP.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): 44.1 ADP, WR17
First, allow me to say I haven’t seen any reports regarding Calvin Ridley’s mental health. Second, that’s a terrifying proposition for selecting a player in the top-50 in drafts that stepped away from the Falcons after Week 7 to address his mental health.
Moving beyond the risk that he’s not mentally ready to return to football, he was underperforming through five games in 2021. Despite getting targeted at least eight times in all five games and reaching double-digit targets four times, he was only the WR25 in points per reception (PPR) formats, excluding two wideouts that played three games or fewer.
Ridley’s paltry 5.4 yards per target would have tied for 137th out of 152 qualified players if he played enough in 2021 to qualify. Adding more context, his 5.4 yards per target would have been the fourth-lowest mark among qualified receivers. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers targeted at least 50 times in 2021, Ridley was tied for 60th in Yards per Route Run (1.43 Y/RR). Finally, according to Football Outsiders, out of 91 receivers that they credited with at least 50 targets, Ridley was 82nd in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ridley was horrible last year. Toss in the uncertainty surrounding his mental health, and I can’t imagine spending a top-100 pick on him right now.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (TE – FA): 117.5 ADP, TE14
Zach Ertz’s fantasy value received a big boost with an in-season trade to the Cardinals. Now, he’s a free agent. Unfortunately, even when Ertz was finishing as a top fantasy tight end, he needed sky-high volume to deliver the goods. Unsurprisingly, on the wrong side of 30, he didn’t morph into an efficient player this year.
According to Stathead, there have been 98 occurrences of a tight end getting targeted at least 50 times since 2018, and Ertz has hit that threshold in all four years. However, Ertz’s highest finish in yards per target out of the 98 examples was 47th in 2018, with 7.46 Y/Tgt, followed by 68th in 2021 (6.81 Y/Tgt), 71st in 2019 (6.79 Y/Tgt) and 97th in 2020 (4.65 Y/Tgt).
Maybe Ertz will land on a team in free agency that will inefficiently feed him targets. However, I’m unwilling to select him as a borderline starter at tight end with uncertainty around his 2022 offensive environment. Instead, I prefer to choose a higher-upside option earlier or wait until later to take a dart throw at a cheaper option.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.