Recency bias is one heck of a drug. Every single year we see a plethora of players finish the season strong and cause us all to wonder if their performance was legit and how we should be valuing them the following season. That is true on the opposite end of the spectrum as well, with players slumping hard and limping to the finish line. The 2021 season brought more examples of both of these, and now it’s time to dig in and figure out how we want to value these players in 2022 and if we should be targeting them at their respective ADPs. As there were so many players that fit these criteria, I’ll be breaking this up into a multi-part series, beginning with infielders and an exciting 2021 rookie.
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Analyzing & Valuing 2021 2nd Half Performances: Infielders
Jazz Chisholm (2B/SS – MIA)
When the 2021 season began, Jazz Chisholm rocketed out of the gates, instantly becoming one of the most exciting young players in the game. In that first month of play, Chisholm racked up four home runs and nine steals with a stellar .311/.388/.581 slash line. Those that drafted him in the later rounds were doing the proverbial happy dance as they thought they had secured the best value pick of 2021 drafts. But not so fast. Even with the dominant start, Chisholm recorded a 30.6% strikeout rate with only a 71.6% contact rate in April. Two metrics that were in line with his minor league profile and hinted at strong regression for the remainder of the season.
And regress he did. Over the final five months of the season, Chisholm slashed only .236/.286/.395 with a 28.2% strikeout rate. In the second half, his slash line was an even more uninspiring .228/.278/.378, although, the strikeout rate improved to 24.6% and he still added seven homers and 10 steals. So what does this mean for 2022? Well, it’s abundantly clear that Chisholm is the same hitter now as he was all the way up through the minors in both the Arizona and Miami organizations. Chisholm consistently displayed an enticing power/speed blend, but his 30.1% strikeout rate left a lot to be desired.
For 2022, he’s going off the board as a top-100 pick and inside of the top-75 of most drafts. The power/speed blend is driving most of that inflated ADP, but Chisholm is one I’ll be avoiding at cost. He’s simply too inconsistent for a top-100 pick and still hasn’t improved his contact metrics or swing-and-miss ways from the minors. He could still flirt with a 20/25 season, but without major adjustments, the AVG and OBP are both likely to remain a detriment to your team. There are plenty of other 2B and SS with much safer profiles in that range to target, including Jonathan India (2B/3B – CIN), Jorge Polanco (2B/SS – MIN), Corey Seager (SS – TEX) and Jose Altuve (2B – HOU).
Frank Schwindel (1B – CHC)
Following the Cubs trade deadline firesale and the departure of Anthony Rizzo (1B – FA), Kris Bryant (3B/OF – FA), and Javier Baez (2B/SS – DET), there were several open spots in the Cubs infield. One player that seized that opportunity and ran wild with it was Frank “The Tank” Schwindel. From August 1st through the end of the season, Schwindel ranked 10th in wOBA and 9th in wRC+ while being one of only seven players to exceed both 40 runs and 40 RBI. Oh yeah, the .344/.391/.615 slash line is pretty damn impressive as well. That pace isn’t sustainable over a full season, but there’s a lot to like about Schwindel heading into 2022.
Coming up through the minors, Schwinder consistently hit for a solid AVG (.286 career) while showing 20+ homer pop as well. The approach has always been a tad aggressive, as evident in his 4.2% walk rate in the minors, but Schwindel has kept his strikeout rate in check thanks to his contact skills. Those skills translated to the Majors late last season with a 78% contact rate and 91.3% zone contact rate, paired with a respectable 11.3% SwStr and 15.8% strikeout rate. His quality of contact metrics wasn’t quite as impressive, but an 8% barrel rate, 39.8% hard-hit rate and .451 xSLG aren’t too shabby.
Entering 2022, Schwindel is a bargain in drafts, despite his late-season dominance in 2021. Repeating 2021 will be damn near impossible, but a .270+/20+ campaign is well within reach while batting in the middle of the Cubs order. That’s great value after pick 200 as a solid CI bat for your fantasy teams.
Bobby Dalbec (1B – BOS)
Another first baseman with an end-of-season surge was Boston’s Bobby Dalbec. After immense struggles early in the season that made him unrosterable, Dalbec flipped the script in August and September while working with his new teammate, Kyle Schwarber (1B/OF – FA). When Boston’s game began on August 1st, Dalbec was hitting .216 with an atrocious 37.5% strikeout rate in 296 plate appearances. Then, from August 1st on, Dalbec slashed .288/.369/.683 with a .395 ISO, 14 home runs, 9.6 BB% and 28.7 K% in 157 PA. I’m hoping that Dalbec treated Mr. Schwarber to a nice steak dinner for helping turn his season around. But as we enter 2022, should we believe in Dalbec’s late-season surge?
While Dalbec did cut his strikeout rate down, it was still 28.7% with a 17.6% SwStr rate that ranked as the 15th worst mark among the 293 hitters with 100+ PA after 8/1. Dalbec also had the 16th worst contact rate and 9th worst zone contact rate during that timeframe. Expecting him to even sniff that .288 AVG over a full season in 2022 is incredibly risky, and honestly, downright foolish. Dalbec profiles more as a .240 hitter, albeit, with 30+ homer upside over a full season. That power has never been questioned and shouldn’t be when you see his 48.1% hard-hit rate, .504 xwOBACON, .522 xSLG, 92.4 mph AVG EV and a 20.2% barrel rate that ranked 3rd behind only Shohei Ohtani (SP/OF – LAA) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF/SS – SD) among hitters with 250 BBE in 2021.
A .240/30+ season is well with reach in 2022 if Dalbec is the starter all season. However, just keep in mind that Boston will likely bring in another bat following the lockout and will have top prospect Triston Casas (1B – BOS) ready at some point this summer.
Willy Adames (SS – MIL)
It’s always comforting when a player you expected to break out following a trade does exactly that. It wasn’t hard to figure out that Willy Adames badly needed a change of scenery when you looked at his career home/road splits. And low and behold, his slash line, once he got traded to Milwaukee midseason, was nearly a carbon copy of his road slash line during his tenure in Tampa Bay. In 99 games and 413 plate appearances with the Brewers, Adames slashed .285/.366/.521 with 26 doubles, 20 homers and a .236 ISO. His .377 wOBA during that timeframe ranked 4th among qualified shortstops, only trailing Tatís, Trea Turner (SS/2B – LAD) and Brandon Crawford (SS – SF).
While the expected metrics don’t fully back up Adames’ Milwaukee performance, his 10.3% barrel rate and 44.8% hard-hit rate over that time are certainly encouraging. Even if he doesn’t replicate his 2021 Milwaukee stats, Adames is still a solid target at his current ADP around pick 140 on both Fantrax and NFBC. He’s in that last range of shortstops that I’d be comfortable having as my starter, as it starts falling off after him and Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL). Just don’t expect the exact pace he was on with Milwaukee last season.
Adames is a solid bet for a .260+ AVG, 20+ HR and a handful of steals with the potential for more. If you waited on a shortstop and missed the elite options, I’d be fine targeting him in the 130-150 range of your drafts. Let’s just hope his strikeout rate is closer to the 25.4% mark he posted in Milwaukee and not the 35.9% mark from Tampa Bay.
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