I play in a great fantasy league where I get in trouble all the time. How can you get in trouble playing fantasy baseball, Josh? Well, the league allows us to trade draft picks for the next season. That’s how. When I get obsessed about a player this year, I spend next year’s draft picks like monopoly money. Then I cry in March.
In 2019, I traded a sixth-round pick for Austin Meadows (OF – TB). I was a genius! Austin Meadows lived up to my expectations.
But I’ve traded picks for duds, too. I gave a good pick for Sean Newcomb (RP – ATL) one year, just because I believed in his first-half numbers. Then the bottom fell out, and now I can’t find my boy Newcomb in any of the fantasy baseball magazines.
Surprisingly, I’m telling you all of this to increase my clout. I still manage to compete every single year, even though every single year requires me to wait around while all the cool players disappear from the draft board until it’s my turn. I absolutely NEED to research and evaluate players that I believe will give me top-60 statistics in the later rounds (I drafted Marcus Semien (2B – TEX) for my first pick in Round 13 last year, which is what I need to do every time). I’ve compiled this list below for all you desperate fantasy baseball gamers. If you’re like me, I feel your pain.
Those of you who are smarter, if you’re out there and you have all of your picks, let my desperation serve you in the later rounds. It might help make your team even better. I’ve chosen one player from each position (two for catcher) with great profit potential in the later rounds. I limited myself to hitters for this article, but if my boss likes me, maybe I can move to pitching in my next article.
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CATCHER
Danny Jansen (C – TOR): ADP – 316
Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR): ADP – 273
I will admit that my brother in-law wrote me an inappropriate text this morning. It said, “The catcher position is a good position… for me to poop on.” Although this sad reference to late 90’s dog puppetry is unfortunate (and still makes me laugh), it is somewhat true. This year, if I miss out on a reasonable hitter behind the dish, my cheat code is simple for leagues where I can afford to roster two catchers and rotate. This might seem like a lame strategy, but we managers need all the at-bats we can get from each position, and the one that suffers the most is catching. If you can manage to roster two guys, I suggest the dudes in Toronto: Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk.
Sure, Jansen’s 2021 line looks sad at .223/.299/.473, but that slugging percentage gave me pause. That’s Trevor Story (SS – FA), even though Jansen’s OPS is lower. I compared his lower OPS to other comparable players, and Austin Meadows shows up (my 2019 success). Jansen had a hamstring injury last year, and another issue related to a HBP. But in nearly 100 at-bats at the end of the season, he hit .303/.350/.695. That’s a small sample, but Jansen was highly touted when he first arrived. If you believe it takes a player 800-1,000 at bats to adjust to the Show, he’s at 831 at-bats.
If I add Captain Kirk to the mix, a man with an ISO of .194 last year and an xwOBA of .377, and I put both of these guys in an outstanding lineup, it’s possible that Canada will give fantasy players great catcher numbers. Of course, it’s also possible that Jansen and Kirk simply end up being the top catchers in, well, Canada.
FIRST BASE
Rhys Hoskins (1B – PHI): ADP – 136
I love Rhys Hoskins. And if I had a dollar for every home run that I thought he would hit with a full season of health, I’d have forty dollars. I could buy the forty-pound bag of dog food for Jasper this month.
First, we know that walks and home runs go together. The ability to see the ball and work a count pairs well, statistically, with the long-ball. Hoskins has a career .360 OBP. Do you know who else has a career .358 OBP? Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY). Do you know who had a similar wRC+ and WAR last year? Stanton.
Stanton hit 35 moonshots in 2021, and Hoskins only hit 27.
But Stanton had 140 more plate appearances.
I realize Stanton is not a first baseman, but he’s going to be nabbed somewhere near Round 7.
Hoskins seems to go in Round 11. Near the end of last season in my keeper league, Hoskins was dropped. It’s possible that fantasy managers are sour about his injury (he had abdominal surgery, but I think he’ll be good to go). This game is about finding an advantage, and he could even go a round or two later.
SECOND BASE
Jorge Polanco (2B/SS – MIN): ADP – 96
He’s listed as a shortstop, but go ahead and draft him as a second baseman. If nothing else, please draft the man. He could hit .270 with 10 steals and 30 homers. Here’s his line from last year: .269/.323/.503. He’s only 28. The future is bright.
He could give you plenty of runs and RBIs. And even if you think the Twins lineup is a problem, it’s really not. He’ll most likely bat third, probably between Josh Donaldson (3B – MIN) and Byron Buxton (CF – MIN). His numbers are supported by deeper stats. For example, his BABIP wasn’t particularly high, so his average is repeatable. If you use the hitter leaderboard on Fangraphs and NOT ADP, he’s Teoscar Hernandez (OF – TOR).
But you can get him nearly five rounds later.
SHORTSTOP
Willy Adames (SS – MIL): ADP – 149
You do not need to be a fantasy baseball expert to find a shortstop that will yield value. Given a list of available players, my grandma could highlight and click the draft button in my Yahoo room and accidentally land me Bo Bichette (SS – TOR), Story, Semien, Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS), or Wander Franco (SS – TB).
But do you know who could have a better year than all of them, if he stays healthy? Willy Adames. That’s who.
Settle down. Nobody said it would be easy.
In the old pre-pandemic days of 2015, 2016, and 2017, Adames was generally considered to be the top prospect in the Rays farm system. Don’t forget that. So what are the telltale signs that he will take a step forward? If you only count his last couple hundred at-bats of the 2021 season, his OBP would be 30 points higher than the first half, which saw his slugging percentage leap too. He is 26, often considered an age when players can take that next step. Look at these two Steamer projections.
Of course, Bogaerts has the edge. He's done it longer. He gets to hang out in that Boston lineup. But let's just say it's possible Bogaerts has had more support and stability in his life. The Brew Crew may offer that for Willy. Why not dream a bit here? If Adames is not the next Bogaerts, he could be Bogaerts-ish.
THIRD BASE
Bobby Dalbec (1B/3B - BOS): ADP - 236
I'll admit it. This is another cheat code and it only applies to leagues with position eligibility at five or 10 games, because he has only played 14 games at the hot corner. I know what you're going to say. Dude strikes out.
But the Red Sox let him figure it out in the lineup over the season, giving him 453 at-bats.
We know that many teams don't let this happen, and that is the first point. Boston believes in him, and so should we. He justified their decision in the last couple months, launching the ball at a better angle and with more power. If we look at players with at least 250 batted ball events, Baseball Savant ranks him third in the ENTIRE league in truly barreling-up balls. He's just behind Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH - LAA) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF/SS - SD). Have you heard of those guys?
Again, I hear you. What about those strikeouts? I'd respond by asking you to check his AVG and OBP in the second half, which was closer to .260/.330. Heck, that average might be better than the average of my other pick, Rhys Hoskins, in the long run. So, if you don't slot Dalbec at third, maybe you should slot him at first base.
His ADP is 236! Reach for him, baby. Reach.
OUTFIELD
Jorge Soler (OF - FA): ADP - 174
In the past several years, we fantasy managers have lived with a juiced ball. And it can be hard to shake off old habits. For example, I have fellow league managers who will sometimes say, "I can find power late in the draft." This general rule-of-thumb was true, and in some ways it remains true. Even if the ball is deadened, I'm sure there is power to be found past the 13th round (see Dalbec above).
No matter what era we find ourselves in, the ability to hit 20-30 homers is out there.
But what about 40 homers?
I ask you to make a list of guys who could hit 40 homers. You'll find it's quite a small cohort. Now, let's cut even more players based on three criteria. First, have they hit that many homers once before? Second, are there positive signs that they could do it again?
Third, for the purposes of this article, is the ADP depressed significantly for some reason?
Jorge Soler, please step forward. And you may ask yourself, "Where is that large automobile?" Answer? Somewhere between rounds 14-16. He hit 48 homers in 2019. He might not reach 48, but that's eight more than I suggested. He's at a peak age. He barrels the ball. He had a .265 AVG in 2019, which he was beginning to reach once he moved to Atlanta. He also hit .265 in 2018. He hit .262 with the Cubs in 2015, and in a small sample, he even hit .292 in 2014. Give Soler Power a chance.
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