From an AL-only mock draft that I just did to a strategic overview for the same format, we’re making sure that you’re ready if you are either a seasoned mono-league player or if you are dipping your toes in for the first time.
League-specific leagues are a lot of fun, but they are a challenge. The player pool is cut in half, and if (When? Hopefully? Please, God!) a new CBA is agreed to, both leagues should have level playing fields when it comes to the use of the DH.
What we’ll do here in this article is look at 12 players that you should consider drafting at various points in the draft. We’ll look at four players with an ADP inside the top 100, four between 101 and 200, and then four who are going after pick 200.
Before we get into the players, we need to talk about some base-level strategies.
Only-leagues force you to change your strategy. If you fade closers regularly, you have to change your approach. The same goes with steals. You need to keep in mind that the options won’t be as readily available to you off waivers as they are in mixed leagues, so you have to invest in the draft.
In mixed leagues, the shallower the league, the more you can take chances on upside. The deeper the league, you need balance and depth and can’t afford many slip-ups. It’s true in mono-leagues, too. Boring is good here.
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Early Targets (1-100 ADP)
Liam Hendriks (RP – CHW): ADP 30
Again, we are pushing saves up here in the format. Hendriks is the top-rated closer overall for fantasy, so you should look to firmly cement yourself into the category early on. I’d take him as early as the end of the second round.
Hendriks is the safest bet to earn 30 saves this year as they get.
Alex Bregman (3B – HOU): ADP 36
The pendulum may have swung a little too far with Bregman. Sure, he won’t reach his 2019 numbers, but his quality of contact is still elite.
Third base has a significant drop-off, and while I’m OK with the likes of Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson as my starter in mixed leagues, I want to avoid injury risks at a shallow position in mono-leagues.
With Bregman, you’re looking at a bounceback candidate who has a swing that is made for his home ballpark. I’ll have quite a few shares this year.
Robbie Grossman (OF – DET): ADP 83
Remember what we said in the intro (assuming you read it and didn’t just skip to the juicy parts, you monster!)? We said that boring is good in deeper leagues, and they don’t get more boring than Grossman.
He’s especially valuable in leagues that have any type of OBP, but even in average leagues, he does enough in the other categories to warrant a pick here. He went 20/20 last season with a 14 percent walk rate. An 18/15 season is in the cards for him again.
Hyun Jin Ryu (SP – TOR): ADP 100
What have you done for me lately, right? Now, Ryu wasn’t great last season, but he was formidable. For a team that went a long time without a home ballpark, I’m not upset with his numbers.
His control was as good as usual, and while he had a dip in strikeouts, you’re not drafting him to be a strikeout artist.
His 70.7 LOB% was the first time it’s been below 80 percent since 2016. I’m buying Ryu as a pitcher who can provide me with 175 valuable innings on a team destined for a playoff run. Buy the dip, folx.
Deep Targets (101-200 ADP)
Myles Straw (OF – CLE): ADP 101
Is Straw good? I don’t particularly think so, but he also doesn’t have a ton of competition for playing time.
You can’t dismiss playing time, especially in deeper leagues.
What we do know is that Straw has a wide variety of potential outcomes, and the risk is baked in with his price here. What we also know is that Straw can provide 25-30 steals for you, which you’ll need to compete in the category.
Give me Straw over Adalberto Mondesi given the cost differential.
Matt Barnes (RP – BOS): ADP 134
Is Barnes going to close for the Red Sox, or is it going to be Garrett Whitlock? Whitlock has the helium this offseason, but I think that Barnes will end up leading the team in saves.
It’s not close to being decided, but having someone established like Hendriks on your roster affords you the opportunity to make a speculative saves pick here.
Mike Minor (SP – KC): ADP 149
Like we discussed with Straw and his opportunity, innings for pitchers are overlooked as far as value goes, too.
Now, not all innings are created equally, but there’s something to be said for the projection models having Minor make 30 starts, hit 170 innings with a reasonable ERA and WHIP. No one gets excited about drafting Minor, but he’s the perfect SP4-5 in AL-only leagues to help you hit your league minimums.
David Fletcher (2B – LAA): ADP 171
Fletcher is another guy that doesn’t get you excited, but he’s going to play every day in Los Angeles in what could be a top-10 offense if everything – and I do mean everything – clicks right for them.
Last year was his worst batting average season, as he hit .262. But the previous three seasons, Fletcher hit .275, .290, and .319 (2020 is tough to count anything).
Hitting ninth wouldn’t be ideal, as he’d lose roughly 144 plate appearances over the course of the year compared to if he was their leadoff guy. But still, a healthy Angels lineup should get him to around 120 runs and RBIs with a .280 average. That’s not nothing at this stage in the draft.
Sleepers (201-plus ADP)
Dylan Bundy (SP – MIN): ADP 215
Look, we aren’t here to sugarcoat anything. Bundy was bad last year. Like, really bad. He was one of the bigger fantasy busts, and I get being out on him given the struggles he’s had for the majority of his career.
But, it seems like the Twins want to take a slider-heavy approach with Bundy, and we know that he’s seen his best results in real life and in fantasy when he prioritizes his slider in his pitch mix. If he struggles, it won’t hurt you, but it’s the type of pick that has big SP3 upside if he’s able to get right.
Evan White (1B – SEA): ADP 247
Post-hype sleepers are always the type of sleepers I like to target. I was all in on White last year, and he was absolutely terrible. But the skill set is still there, and the Mariners extended him at the beginning of last season, so they aren’t ready to quit on him yet, either.
The Mariners have some options if White struggles again, but he’s one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball, so he’s going to force their hand.
Brandon Marsh (OF – LAA): ADP 259
Remember what I said under Fletcher’s blurb that if everything breaks right, the Angels’ offense could be really, really good? Well, Marsh is a big part of that.
He didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first taste of big-league action, as his walk rate plummeted and his strikeout rate surged. But guess what? That’s normal for a rookie.
It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see Marsh post a .250 average with a .340 OBP with 12-15 homers and steals.
Demarcus Evans (RP – TEX): ADP 382
I absolutely love deep leagues. My 30-team leagues that I’m in are my favorite because you get to dream about players finding that something that can make them fantasy relevant.
For me, the player I dream on a ton is Evans.
The Evans fan club is led by me, Frank Stampfl of CBS, and Nando Di Fino of The Athletic. Last year, the player I was in on was Emmanuel Clase. This year, it’s Evans.
Now, let’s be clear – Evans does not have the skill that Clase has, but he could have the opportunity to be this year’s pop-up closer who provides top 10 value at the position. Joe Barlow is the guy for Texas, and he could be fine!
But Evans has four quality pitches, a fastball that had a 70-grade in the minors, and he has a foot of vertical movement on the pitch. The folx at Baseball Prospectus did a fantastic deep dive on him recently, and you should expect his ADP to climb as drafts get closer.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
