Josh Shepardson | Mon, Feb 14th 2022, 7:06am EST

Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Whiff% Fastballs (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.

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Whiff Rate (Whiff%)

A whiff is a swing and a miss at a pitch. According to Baseball Savant, their Whiff Rate (Whiff%) is calculated per pitch. What constitutes a below-average, average, and above-average Whiff% varies by pitch type. Intuitively, it makes sense that some pitches have a higher average Whiff% than others.

For this segment of the Advanced Stats Leaderboard, I have broken the tables down by pitch type. Additionally, some pitch types are used more often than others. For instance, fastballs are used more often than non-fastballs. As a result, I’ve adjusted the plate appearances thresholds by pitch type to best capture a meaningful sample of starting pitchers. Additionally, I’ve manually removed relief pitchers from the tables. So, it’s an apples-to-apples comparison.

2021 Starting Pitcher Fourseam Fastball Whiff%

In 2021, 73 pitchers threw fourseam fastballs in at least 200 plate appearances. The lowest Whiff% was Paolo Espino's 11.8%, the highest was Lance Lynn's 32.5%, and the median was 20.9%. Therefore, all of the starting pitchers above had an above-average Whiff% on their fourseamer.

A bat-missing heater is an excellent foundational piece for striking out batters at an above-average clip. Yes, some of the pitchers on the table also worked in relief last year. However, the following numbers were on their work as starters in 2021. According to FanGraphs, the league average strikeout rate in 2021 was 23.2%. Out of the 20 pitchers on the Whiff% leaderboard for fourseam fastballs, 17 pitchers had an average or higher strikeout, 15 had better than a 25.0 K%, and Trevor Rogers (28.5 K%), Zack Wheeler (29.1 K%), Brandon Woodruff (29.8 K%), Cristian Javier (29.9 K%), Freddy Peralta (33.2 K%), Gerrit Cole (33.5 K%), Max Scherzer (34.1 K%), and Carlos Rodon (34.6 K%) all had a strikeout more than five percent above the league average. Moreover, the median strikeout rate for the 20 starters in this section was 27.6%.

2021 Starting Pitcher Sinker Whiff%

Even a cursory glance at this table shows sinkers don't miss bats at the same rate as fourseam fastballs. However, that is logical. Sinkers are frequently used to coax groundballs. Still, it doesn't hurt for a pitcher to be able to avoid contact entirely with their sinker at an above-average clip.

In 2021, 65 pitchers used a sinker in at least 150 plate appearances. The highest Whiff% by a starter was 25.0%, the median was 14.7%, and the low was 7.8%. Given the nature of sinkers and their purpose in a hurler's arsenal, it's not shocking that only 11 of the pitchers on this leaderboard had an above-average strikeout rate in 2021. Regardless, the top of the heap included some excellent strikeout rates, including Logan Webb (26.5 K%), Frankie Montas (26.6 K%), Sonny Gray (27.0 K%), Lance McCullers Jr. (27.0 K%), and Wheeler (29.1 K%). So, a sinker that can get empty swings is nice. However, if you're hunting for pitchers to help in the strikeout category, you're better served looking at the Whiff% leaderboards for other pitches.

2021 Starting Pitcher Cutter Whiff%

The leaderboard for pitchers that used a cutter in a minimum of 50 plate appearances is jam-packed with relievers. Further, there weren't many starters with a Whiff% above the median out of the 84 hurlers that hit the 50-plate appearances threshold. In fact, Tyler Anderson's 22.6 Whiff% was the median. Zach Davies brought up the rear with a 6.1 Whiff%, and Luis Garcia was a man amongst boys with a 42.0 Whiff%.

Out of the 15 pitchers on the leaderboard, two had a strikeout rate below 20.0%, six had a below-average rate, and eight had a 25.0 K% or higher. Lynn is a fastball whiz, appearing on all three leaderboards in this piece. He blew cheddar by hitters, sunk it, and cut it effectively, recording a 27.5 K%. As a result, Lynn is a good bet to continue to beat the league average in strikeouts, despite an unorthodox fastball-centric approach.

Six more hurlers on the table had a 26.0 K% or higher last year. Walker Buehler was at the bottom of that group with a 26.0 K%, joined by Garcia (26.3 K%), Yu Darvish (29.2 K%), Trevor Bauer (31.7 K%), Scherzer (34.1 K%), and Corbin Burnes (35.6 K%).

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Whiff% Fastballs (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Whiff Rate (Whiff%)

2021 Starting Pitcher Fourseam Fastball Whiff%

2021 Starting Pitcher Sinker Whiff%

2021 Starting Pitcher Cutter Whiff%

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