The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Whiff Rate (Whiff%)
A whiff is a swing and a miss at a pitch. According to Baseball Savant, their Whiff Rate (Whiff%) is calculated per pitch. What constitutes a below-average, average, and above-average Whiff% varies by pitch type. Intuitively, it makes sense that some pitches have a higher average Whiff% than others.
For this segment of the Advanced Stats Leaderboard, I have broken the tables down by pitch type. Additionally, some pitch types are used more often than others. For instance, fastballs are used more often than non-fastballs. As a result, I’ve adjusted the plate appearances thresholds by pitch type to best capture a meaningful sample of starting pitchers. Additionally, I’ve manually removed relief pitchers from the tables. So, it’s an apples-to-apples comparison.
The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
Dominate with our award-winning fantasy baseball draft software
Whiff Rate (Whiff%)
A whiff is a swing and a miss at a pitch. According to Baseball Savant, their Whiff Rate (Whiff%) is calculated per pitch. What constitutes a below-average, average, and above-average Whiff% varies by pitch type. Intuitively, it makes sense that some pitches have a higher average Whiff% than others.
For this segment of the Advanced Stats Leaderboard, I have broken the tables down by pitch type. Additionally, some pitch types are used more often than others. For instance, fastballs are used more often than non-fastballs. As a result, I’ve adjusted the plate appearances thresholds by pitch type to best capture a meaningful sample of starting pitchers. Additionally, I’ve manually removed relief pitchers from the tables. So, it’s an apples-to-apples comparison.
2021 Starting Pitcher Curveball Whiff%
Breaking balls are the cream of the crop for getting whiffs. According to Baseball Savant, in 2021, 114 pitchers threw a curveball in at least 50 plate appearances against them. The lowest Whiff% was a lowly 12.8%. However, the highest was Tyler Glasnow's sky-high 55.6 Whiff%. Additionally, the median was a 32.85 Whiff%.
An elite bat-missing curve yielded excellent strikeout results for this group of pitchers in 2021. According to FanGraphs, the average strikeout rate was 23.2% last year. Out of the 20 pitchers in this section, 16 had an average or better strikeout rate last year. In addition, the lowest strikeout rate was Kyle Freeland's solid-if-unspectacular 20.4 K%.
Moreover, an eye-popping 11 pitchers had 25.0% or higher strikeout rates. Glasnow led the 11 strikeout whizzes with a 36.2 K%, followed by Corbin Burnes (35.6 K%), Shane Bieber (33.1 K%), Dylan Cease (31.9 K%), Blake Snell (30.9 K%), Zack Wheeler (29.1 K%), Charlie Morton (28.6 K%), Triston McKenzie (27.3 K%), Shane McClanahan (27.3 K%), Nathan Eovaldi (25.5 K%), and Chris Bassitt (25.0 K%).
2021 Starting Pitcher Slider Whiff%
Sliders are used by a boatload of pitchers across The Show at a high rate. So, I was able to set the minimum for plate appearances against for 2021 to 100 and still get a hearty sample of 112 pitchers. The lowest Whiff% of the group was 14.1%. At the other end of the spectrum, Jacob deGrom topped the list with a 58.1 Whiff%. Then, in the middle, the median Whiff% was 35.2%. So, as you can see, the top-20 starting pitchers in Whiff% for their slider were comfortably above the median Whiff% for the offering.
Sadly, not all of the pitchers on the table had notable success striking out hitters. For example, Daniel Lynch (17.7 K%) and Patrick Corbin (19.0 K%) had strikeout rates south of 20.0%. Kyle Gibson (20.8 K%) also had a below-average strikeout. However, that's it. Those are the only pitchers with a below-average strikeout rate from the table above. As a result, the slider Whiff% leaders had the highest percentage of starting pitchers in this leaderboard series with an average or better strikeout rate in 2021.
Further, a jaw-dropping 15 of the pitchers in this section struck out at least 26.0% of the batters they faced last year. Setting the bar even higher, 10 of the starting pitchers had a strikeout rate of 29.5% or higher. The elite 10 starters in question were Clayton Kershaw (29.5 K%), Cristian Javier (29.9 K%), Snell (30.9 K%), Cease (31.9 K%), Robbie Ray (32.1 K%), Freddy Peralta (33.2 K%), Gerrit Cole (33.5 K%), Max Scherzer (34.1 K%), Carlos Rodon (34.6 K%), and deGrom (45.1 K%).
Finally, in case you missed it when looking at both tables, there were a handful of pitchers that appeared on both of them. Specifically, German Marquez, Snell, McClanahan, and Cease were on both breaking ball Whiff% leaderboards. With his two top-shelf breaking balls, Marquez is a trade out of Coors Field away from a strikeout rate surge. In the meantime, he's the rare pitcher that has fantasy value, despite pitching for the Rockies.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
