The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Whiff Rate (Whiff%)
A whiff is a swing and a miss at a pitch. According to Baseball Savant, their Whiff Rate (Whiff%) is calculated on a per pitch basis. What constitutes a below-average, average, and above-average Whiff% varies by pitch type. Intuitively, it makes sense that some pitches have a higher average Whiff% than others.
For this segment of the Advanced Stats Leaderboard, I have broken the tables down by pitch type. Additionally, some pitch types are used more often than others. For instance, fastballs are used more often than non-fastballs. As a result, I’ve adjusted the plate appearances thresholds by pitch type to best capture a meaningful sample of starting pitchers. Additionally, I’ve manually removed relief pitchers from the tables. So, it’s an apples-to-apples comparison.
2021 Starting Pitcher Changeup Whiff%
According to Baseball Savant, in 2021, 145 pitchers used a changeup for a minimum of 50 plate appearances against them. The lowest Whiff% of that sample was 12.1%, Patrick Sandoval's 51.4 Whiff% was the highest and the median 29.5%. Sandoval was joined in the upper elite territory in changeup Whiff% by Tarik Skubal. As a result, their top-shelf changeups are one reason I'm highly intrigued by both pitchers in fantasy baseball this year. According to FanGraphs, in their starts last year, Sandoval had a 26.1 K%, and Skubal had a 26.2 K%.
Out of the 20 pitchers on the table, five more pitchers had a strikeout rate above 25.0% in their starts, including Luis Garcia (26.3 K%), Lance McCullers Jr. (27.0 K%), Lucas Giolito (27.9 K%), Brandon Woodruff (29.8 K%), and Carlos Rodon (34.6 K%). According to FanGraphs, the league average strikeout rate in 2021 was 23.2%, putting the seven pitchers discussed already in this section comfortably above that mark. In all, a dozen of the pitchers on the changeup Whiff% table had an average or better strikeout rate last year.
So, having a superb changeup can lead to an average or better strikeout rate. However, so far, an elite bat-missing fourseamer yielded a higher percentage of at least average strikeout rates from the leading pitchers last year.
2021 Starting Pitcher Splitter Whiff%
The splitter wasn't a widely used pitch in 2021. As a result, only 30 pitchers threw a splitter in at least 25 appearances against them. Frankie Montas had a 51.4 Whiff% on his splitter, the highest among starters in this small sample. The lowest Whiff% 20.9% against Jake Odorizzi's splitter. Finally, the median was a 33.85 Whiff%. Six of the starters in this section had an above-average strikeout rate last year. They were Alex Cobb (24.9 K%), Kenta Maeda (24.9 K%), Montas (26.6 K%), Tony Gonsolin (27.4 K%), Shohei Ohtani (29.3 K%), and Kevin Gausman (29.3 K%).
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers GB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Soft%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers IFFB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers BABIP
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Whiff% Fastballs
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Whiff% Curveballs/Sliders
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters BB/K
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters FB/LD Exit Velocity
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Barrel%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters FB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters IFFB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Max Exit Velocity
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.