The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP)
Batting Average on Ball In Play (BABIP) is a statistic that’s often cited when attempting to identify unlucky and lucky hitters and pitchers. In this case, I’m viewing BABIP through the lens of pitchers. Thus, a lower BABIP is better than a higher BABIP.
However, looking at a pitcher’s BABIP relative to the league average and their marks in recent seasons is essential. According to FanGraphs, the league average for BABIP allowed by pitchers in 2021 was .290, lower than .291 in 2020 and .296 in 2019. Out of 38 qualified starting pitchers in 2021, the lowest BABIP was .247, the median was .285 (the average of the .284 BABIP in 19th and the .286 BABIP in 20th), and the highest was .326.
2021 Qualified Starters BABIP Leaders
Obviously, you can compare the BABIPs of the leaders above to last year's league average for an idea of who might suffer regression in 2022. However, I want to dig deeper, looking at the most egregious outliers relative to their BABIP from 2018 through 2020. Interestingly, Walker Buehler's BABIP during those three years was .263. So, while he will probably regress from last year's co-leading .247 BABIP, expecting him to crater to the league average is likely unwise.
However, Max Scherzer, the other co-leader for 2021 BABIP, is a better bet for more stark regression. Scherzer's BABIP from 2018 through 2020 was .301. Adam Wainwright's .256 BABIP in 2021 was also substantially better than his .302 BABIP from 2018 through 2020. A few other pitchers from the table above that had markedly higher BABIPs in the three years prior include Max Fried (.323), Marcus Stroman (.314), Kevin Gausman (.310), Kyle Gibson (.306), Robbie Ray (.303), Joe Musgrove (.301), and Brandon Woodruff (.299).
On the flip side, there are pitchers above that don't appear as likely to get crushed by regression. There were six pitchers joining Buehler that had a BABIP south of .285 in the prior three years, including Lucas Giolito (.268), Sandy Alcantara (.269), Yu Darvish (.278), Zack Greinke (.279), Lance McCullers Jr. (.280), and Julio Urias (.281). As a result, they're the hurlers I'm most confident in maintaining favorable BABIP marks in 2022.
Noteworthy Non-Qualified Starting Pitchers in 2021
Unfortunately, only six pitchers in the second table have made starts from 2018 through 2020. Thus, the sample in the majors as a starter is limited to only 2021 for Drew Rasmussen, Tyler Gilbert, Kyle Muller, and Cody Poteet. So, the simplest thing to do is use the league average BABIP as a guide for expectations in 2022 while they establish their legitimacy for beating the league average.
Interestingly, while the sample is only another half-dozen starts, Triston McKenzie had an identical .226 BABIP in his 2020 debut as a starter to his 2021 campaign. So, there might be something to his ability to beat the league average. Jack Flaherty (.252), Jacob deGrom (.282), and Freddy Peralta (.290) all had a higher BABIP in the previous three-year window than they did in 2021. Cristian Javier made 10 starts in his 2020 debut, recording a .185 BABIP. Javier spent most of last year in the bullpen but did start nine games. I'm not crazy about the young pitcher's underlying numbers. However, his high fly ball rate supports a low BABIP, and he might have value as a streamer in deep leagues in favorable matchups if he makes spot starts again this season.
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers GB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Soft%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers IFFB%
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.