Josh Shepardson | Tue, Feb 22nd 2022, 6:28am EST

Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters wRC+ (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.

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Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is a hitting statistic that attempts to level the playing field for hitters across eras and ballparks. Further, it weights the value of outcomes differently, meaning reaching base via a single isn’t as valuable as hitting a double, triple, or homer. It’s easy to consume because it’s scaled to 100, with a 100 wRC+ representing league average. Every wRC+ point above or below 100 is commensurate with one percentage point better or worse than the league average (i.e., a 125 wRC+ is 25% better than the league average, and an 82 wRC+ is 18% worse than the league average).

As a result, wRC+ is my favorite offensive metric. It’s my go-to statistic for hitters for daily fantasy analysis. Additionally, it’s a significant statistic because it avoids double counting for park factors. For instance, a hitter that lights up the box score at Coors Field isn’t going to have a bloated wRC+ from playing in MLB’s hitter’s paradise. Instead, their production is boiled down to a normalized number for neutral hitting circumstances. So, a hitter with a high wRC+ playing at Coors Field has an even rosier outlook because of the dreamy hitting conditions. Conversely, a player with a high wRC+ but plays at a pitcher-friendly ballpark is an ideal streaming candidate or DFS option when they play in cozier hitting conditions.

Obviously, the league average for wRC+ in 2021 was 100. However, according to FanGraphs, among 132 qualified hitters last season, the highest was a 170 wRC+, and the lowest was a 54 wRC+. So now, let’s look at the wRC+ leaders among qualified hitters and some of the top non-qualified hitters. Therefore, I’m buying into Crawford as an above-average hitter in 2022.

2021 Qualified Hitters wRC+ Leaders

Predictably, the leaders in wRC+ in 2021 were among the game's best. Thus, wRC+ was representative of the top hitters last year. Expanding further, the National League MVP, Bryce Harper, was first in wRC+, and the American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, was fifth in wRC+. Moreover, the second-place and third-place finishers in NL MVP voting, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr, respectively, were third and fourth in wRC+, and the AL MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and fourth-place vote-getter, Aaron Judge, was second and sixth.

Bryan Reynolds and Brandon Crawford are a couple of hitters that catch my eye on the table. Reynolds burst onto the scene with a 130 wRC+ in 546 plate appearances as a rookie in 2019. Unfortunately, he cratered to a 72 wRC+ in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. After last year's excellent showing, it looks like 2020 was the outlier.

As for Crawford, in 1,724 plate appearances from 2017 through 2019, he had an 84 wRC+. In 2020, he had a 111 wRC+. Then, last year, his wRC+ exploded to 139. It's understandable if your first instinct is to dismiss an age-34 career-year for wRC+ as a fluke. However, I can't advise strongly enough against handwaving Crawford's success away. The veteran shortstop drastically overhauled his swing, and the results spoke for themselves.

Noteworthy Non-Qualified Hitters in 2021

I haven't been shy about showering Byron Buxton and Luis Robert with adoration this offseason. So this is another data point that speaks glowingly of their work at the dish in 2021. Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf are two more Giants that might catch readers off guard. However, Belt had a 173 wRC+ in 179 plate appearances in 2020. Meanwhile, Ruf has had a 143 wRC+ in 412 plate appearances for the Giants since returning stateside from the KBO in 2020. Interestingly, Ruf hasn't just pulverized lefties, amassing a 129 wRC+ in 207 plate appearances against fellow righties for San Francisco.

Kyle Schwarber did more than just bounce back from his worst full-season wRC+ (89) in 2020. He set a new career-high in the category. Unfortunately, injuries cut short Jessie Winker's 2021 campaign a little early. However, he's firmly established himself in the upper-echelon of hitters. In 668 plate appearances since 2020, Winker has had a 147 wRC+.

Finally, Frank Schwindel was a minor-league journeyman before last year. He had only 15 plate appearances before 2021 and received his most extensive playing time in his age-29 season. So maybe his offensive outburst was a fluke. Still, he did an excellent job of avoiding punchouts (15.8 K%), and his batted-ball profile was rock-solid. As a result, I have some optimism he's genuinely an above-average hitter, albeit not 52% better than average.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters wRC+ (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

2021 Qualified Hitters wRC+ Leaders

Noteworthy Non-Qualified Hitters in 2021

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