The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Swinging-Strike Percentage (SwStr%)
Swinging-strike percentage is measured by calculating the number of swings and misses divided by total pitches. According to FanGraphs, the league average for SwStr% in 2021 was 11.2%. In addition, out of 132 qualified hitters, the lowest was a 4.0 SwSt%, and the highest was a 21.7 SwStr%. Interestingly, Javier Baez’s (SS/2B – DET) qualified-hitter worst 21.7 SwStr% was 3.2% worse than a two-player tie for the second-highest mark. Moreover, only four qualified hitters had an SwStr% north of 17.0%.
Unsurprisingly, there is a ton of overlap between the Zone-Contact percentage (Z-Contact%) leaders and the following SwStr% leaders. In fact, there are only three spots that don’t overlap. So, as is the case with a high Z-Contact%, players with a low SwStr% are almost all helpers in batting average, sporting a better than average strikeout rate.
The highest strikeout rate among the 20 qualified hitters on the SwStr% leaderboard was 19.2%, one of only two hitters with a 19.0% or higher strikeout rate. There were 17 players on the upcoming list that had a 16.0 K% or lower, much better than the 2021 league average of a 23.2 K%.
Additionally, only Kevin Newman (2B/SS – PIT) and his putrid .226 batting average were below the 2021 league average of .244. All of the other qualified hitters on the leaderboard had a .262 batting average or higher, with a dozen above .270, eight exceeding .275, and five of the group hitting at least .300. So, again, like Z-Contact%, SwStr% is an excellent statistic to look at when hunting for players that will help in batting average.
2021 Qualified Hitters SwStr% Leaders
Since there are so many carryovers from the Z-Contact% list, I'll address only the three unique players: Juan Soto (RF - WSH), Justin Turner (3B - LAD), and Alex Verdugo (OF - BOS). Simply, Soto is justifiably sporting an average draft position (ADP) of 2.7. Currently, I have him ranked fourth overall, behind Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS/OF - SD), Trea Turner (2B/SS - LAD), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B - TOR). Still, it's splitting hairs. He's comfortably in my top-five players.
Meanwhile, Turner and Verdugo have an ADP outside the top-150 players at 154.7 and 161.3, respectively. I'm higher on both players, presently ranking Turner inside my top-125 and Verdugo just inside the top-160. Last year, Turner hit .278 in 612 plate appearances, and Verdugo hit .289 in 604 plate appearances. Thus, they not only hit for a helpful batting average, but they also did so in a high volume of plate appearances. Further, since 2019, Turner has hit .287, and Verdugo has hit .294. Therefore, they have demonstrated more batting average upside beyond their 2021 marks.
Noteworthy Non-Qualified Hitters in 2021
I've already said all there is to say about Luis Arraez (UTL - MIN) and Alex Bregman (3B - HOU). They're mainstays in this portion of the Advanced Stats Leaderboard series. They both do a phenomenal job of avoiding strikeouts and putting the ball in play.
The name that jumped off the page in this section was Tyler Stephenson (C/1B - CIN). Last year, the young catcher had 402 plate appearances, slashing .286/.366/.431, with 10 homers, 56 runs, 45 RBIs, a 10.2 BB%, and 18.7 K%. That was an excellent rookie season at the young age of 24. In addition, the Reds have cleared a path to more playing time in 2022, trading Tucker Barnhart (C - DET) to the Tigers in early November. As a result, he is my C9, making him a starter in leagues as shallow as 10-team mixed leagues using a single catcher.
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers GB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Soft%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers IFFB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers BABIP
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters BB/K
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters FB/LD Exit Velocity
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Barrel%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters FB%
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
