The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Fly Ball and Line Drive Exit Velocity (FB/LD)
Hitting the ball hard in the air is a great way to generate power statistics. Thankfully, Baseball Savant has an average Fly Ball and Line Drive Exit Velocity (FB/LD) leaderboard. According to their data, there were 132 qualified hitters in 2021. The lowest average FB/LD exit velocity was 83.3 miles per hour (MPH). Conversely, the highest exit velo was 100.4 mph, the only mark to reach triple-digits. In the middle, the median FB/LD velocity was 93.8 mph. Below, you’ll see a who is who of laser-show artists.
2021 Qualified Hitters FB/LD Exit Velocity Leaders
Intuitively, you probably expected to see Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr., Miguel Sano, Giancarlo Stanton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Aaron Judge in the above table. Right? These half-dozen hitters regularly hit scorching homers.
However, muscled-up Tyler O'Neill is a name that might shock casual fantasy baseball gamers and fans. O'Neill received his most extensive playing time last year since reaching the majors in 2018, parlaying his regular role into 34 bombs. Unfortunately, there are warts on his profile. Nevertheless, putting a charge into the ball isn't among his shortcomings.
Gray-beards Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, and Joey Votto are still hammering the ball, despite being 36 years old or older. Votto ripped 11 homers in 223 plate appearances in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Nevertheless, his 36 taters last year were a shocking total. Regardless, his Statcast data, namely his FB/LD velocity, supported his homer explosion.
Finally, Juan Soto is elite. Sure, he only hit 29 homers in 654 plate appearances last year. Still, according to FanGraphs, he jumped from 11 homers in 332 plate appearances in the first half to 18 in 322 plate appearances in the second half. Soto is a conscious decision to lift his launch angle, something he demonstrated he could do in 2019, with a 12.5-degree launch angle compared to only 5.8 degrees last year, away from launching 40-plus homers in 2022.
Noteworthy Non-Qualified Hitters in 2021
Mike Zunino strikes out too much to ever help fantasy baseball teams in batting average. However, his career-high 33 homers last year in 375 plate appearances accompanied his gaudy 100.0 mph FB/LD exit velocity. So, if you're content stomaching a lousy batting average for power behind the dish, Zunino is a rock-solid target.
Chad Pinder and Darin Ruf are primarily platoon players, holding the advantage against southpaws. Gamers can file their names away as streaming options or DFS picks when opposing a lefty.
Franmil Reyes will be an annual homer champion sleeper while he smokes baseballs. Unfortunately, according to FanGraphs, he has had a 46.7 GB% in his career and 46.3 GB% in 2021. However, if he ever tweaks his swing enough to knock that rate around 40%, his raw power will give him a chance to lead Major League Baseball in homers.
Finally, I'm driving the Byron Buxton bandwagon again this year. Sadly, injuries have been Buxton's bugaboo. Nonetheless, he has ripped 32 homers in 389 plate appearances since 2020, amassing a gaudy FB/LD exit velocity that backs his blossoming power. Buxton is also still fast -- more on that to come in a future installment of this series -- with 11 stolen bases in 13 attempts in 100 games since 2020.
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers GB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Soft%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers IFFB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers BABIP
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.