The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
Fly ball percentage (FB%) is calculated by dividing all fly balls put in play by the total balls put in play. In the quest to hit dingers, hitting the ball in the air is a good starting point. But, of course, players with below-average power can tank their batting average with weak fly ball outs. Thus, fly balls are only part of the equation for smacking homers.
Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn’t offer a league average for fly ball percentage. However, according to FanGraphs, out of 132 qualified hitters in 2021, the highest fly ball percentage was 53.0%, the lowest was 16.4%, and the median mark was 36.8%. So, we can use the high, low, and median to create a context for the fly ball rate for each hitter. Again, though, it’s only one part of the equation for hitting homers. Thus, it’s best to look at fly ball rate along with other metrics such as fly ball and line drive exit velocity or hard-hit percentage when attempting to identify which hitters might be candidates to rip homers in bunches this year.
2021 Qualified Hitters Fly Ball Percentage Leaders
There were many unsurprising names on the 2021 fly ball percentage leaderboard, such as Joey Gallo (OF - NYY). The three-true-outcomes legend slugged 38 homers last year. However, that was only tied for the third-most homers with Adam Duvall's (OF - ATL) 38 bombs among the top-20 hitters in fly ball rate.
As I noted above, fly balls are an integral part of hitting homers. To that point, 11 players from above hit at least 30 homers, and all of them hit at least 20 homers, with Enrique Hernandez (2B/CF - BOS) bringing up the rear with precisely 20 homers. The median mark for homers in this group was 30, slugged by Kyle Tucker (OF - HOU) and Ozzie Albies (2B - ATL).
Interestingly, last year's fly ball percentage leader, Austin Meadows (LF - TB), slugged a modest 27 homers. According to Baseball Savant, Meadows was only 109th out of 132 qualified hitters in average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (FB/LD of 91.9 mph). However, in 2019, he was tied for 39th out of 135 qualified hitters with an average FB/LD exit velocity of 94.7 mph. So, if he can recapture the extra thump he stroked the ball with during 2019, he's a candidate to surge past 30 homers this year.
Noteworthy Non-Qualified Hitters in 2021
Mike Zunino (C - TB) sells out for power. He was rewarded for that approach with 33 bombs in 375 plate appearances. In addition to hitting a whopping 54.0% of his balls in play in the air, he was one of only two hitters with at least 100 batted-ball-events to average triple-digit miles per hour in FB/LD exit velo (100.0 mph).
Cody Bellinger (CF - LAD) had a dreadful 2021 campaign. Still, he hit the ball in the air at a high-ish rate. Unfortunately, Bellinger didn't hit the ball in the air with the same authority he did before shoulder surgery following the 2020 campaign. Thus, if you believe he'll have more strength further removed from November 2020 shoulder surgery, he's an outstanding rebound candidate.
The other names in the non-qualified fly ball rate leaders table I'm fixated on are Rhys Hoskins (1B - PHI), Brandon Belt (1B - SF), and Patrick Wisdom (UTL - CHC). Out of 404 hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events last year, Belt was tied for 115th in FB/LD exit velocity (94.2 mph), Hoskins was tied for 54th (95.8 mph), and Wisdom was tied for 44th (96.2 mph).
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers GB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Soft%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers IFFB%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers BABIP
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters BB/K
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters FB/LD Exit Velocity
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Barrel%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Contact%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Hitters Z-Swing%
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
