We talk about pushing saves and steals up. We discuss how ugly catcher is. Third base is shallow, have you heard?
But one position I like this year is first base. Even after the top 30, there are a lot of guys I like (as you’ll see below).
Like we have in past years, we’ll be ranking them in tiers for you using Fantasy Pros ADP, breaking down the categories they can help you in.
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2021 Recap
A few of the biggest standouts from last season were Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR) and Ty France (1B/2B/3B – SEA). Guerrero had the breakout that we all hoped for and that we all expected him to have, as he fixed his groundball issue and just went on a tear. Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH – LAA) deserved the MVP, but Guerrero was a lock in any other season. As for France, he was a popular sleeper last year, and his contact skills were on full display with a .291/.368/.445 line with 18 home runs and 158 runs and RBIs combined.
On the flip side, we saw DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B/3B – NYY), who just looked like a different player than the one we were used to. He hit .268 – his worst line since 2014 – with 10 home runs – worst since 2017 – and had a hard-hit rate (FanGraphs) of 27.4 percent – his lowest since 2015. He’s fallen to a place where he makes sense as a bounceback candidate.
If we are looking at the out-of-nowhere guys who became fantasy producers in 2021, we can look at the aforementioned France again, or we can look at Frank Schwindel (1B – CHC). Schwindel is 29 years old, but only had 15 plate appearances to his name before 2021. Schwindel only played in 64 games last year, but he turned heads with 14 home runs and a .326/.371/.591 line. He’s an old breakout guy, so if you draft him depends on your approach to non-injury risks in drafts.
2022 at a Glance
The first first baseman off the board is Guerrero Jr., who has an average ADP of fourth overall. I think that’s fair for Guerrero, but even as the leader of the fan club, I’m probably looking to lock up some speed if I can with a top-four pick. After Guerrero, Freeman is the only other first baseman who is drafted in the first two rounds in 12- and 15-team leagues.
We always want to identify potential breakout players at a position, and first base does have its options here. Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF – MIN) is my favorite breakout option. He’s dual-eligible, which is great, and also, he was breaking out last year before he injured his wrist. If you look at his batted-ball data, Kirilloff’s metrics took a hit following the injury. He’s in for a big year – if he can just stay healthy for once. Another potential breakout who I like is Spencer Torkelson (1B/3B – DET). Tork is one of the top prospects in the game and should be called up by May in Detroit. He’s a big power option whose game should translate to the big leagues just fine.
Grade Legend*
A: A no-doubt stud capable of winning you a category
B: A solid, consistent contributor
C: Won’t lose you the category, but won’t win it, either
D: You can do better here
F: You’re getting NOTHING
(*Grades listed are relative to the position and consider positional depth.)
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
Players who just missed in ADP who I'd take above everyone in the tier above:
Spencer Torkelson, Luke Voit (1B - NYY), Miguel Sanó (1B - MIN), Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B/LF - CHC), Jesús Aguilar (1B - MIA), Nathaniel Lowe (1B - TEX), Connor Joe (1B/LF - COL)
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.