The 2022 NFL Draft is still several weeks away. However, that hasn’t stopped fantasy players from doing their homework on the upcoming draft class. That said, many believe this year’s class is subpar compared to the 2020 and 2021 draft classes.
A year into their careers, the 2021 NFL Draft class is full of future stars. While players like Ja’Marr Chase and Javonte Williams are near impossible to trade for right now, which players should you look to buy and sell? Below are six of my favorite players to buy and sell from the 2021 NFL Draft class.
All stats are based on PPR scoring.
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Players to Buy
The first overall pick had a rocky rookie season. However, given his coaching staff and supporting cast, that wasn’t surprising. Lawrence had some excellent moments, including in Week 1. He had a career-high three passing touchdowns, 322 passing yards, and 19.1 fantasy points against the Houston Texans. However, Lawrence failed to throw more than one touchdown pass in the next 15 games, throwing for zero touchdown passes in 53.3 percent of those games. While those numbers are awful, Lawrence finished the season on a positive note, throwing two touchdown passes and scoring 18.6 fantasy points in Week 18 against the Indianapolis Colts.
With the hiring of Doug Pederson, the Jaguars will no longer have a head coach who appears utterly clueless on the sidelines as he benches James Robinson. More importantly, the Jaguars will have the second-most cap space this offseason, according to Over the Cap. With several talented wide receivers and offensive linemen potentially hitting the open market next month, the Jaguars can be aggressive in improving the supporting cast around Lawrence. With two picks in the top 35 selections, the Jaguars could draft Evan Neal first overall and add a wide receiver like Jahan Dotson or Drake London with the 33rd overall pick. Everyone was excited to draft Lawrence in their rookie drafts a year ago. After a disappointing rookie season, the future looks bright for Lawrence.
Unfortunately for Bateman, his rookie season didn’t go as planned. After having core muscle surgery in August, Bateman missed the first five weeks of the year. However, Bateman had a role on offense once he stepped onto the field. Over the first four games of his career, Bateman averaged seven targets and 10.5 fantasy points per game. He scored 10.2 or more fantasy points in three of those games despite failing to score a touchdown.
Furthermore, Bateman averaged 10.5 fantasy points per game despite finishing third on the team in targets during that span. With the return of Sammy Watkins in Week 10, Bateman’s production dropped off. Watkins is a free agent next month. However, all signs point to the Ravens not re-signing the veteran wide receiver.
Even without his franchise quarterback under center, Bateman found a way to be productive for fantasy owners. After ten plays, Lamar Jackson left the Week 14 game against the Cleveland Browns. Despite playing with Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson for the rest of the season, Bateman finished strong. He averaged 11.1 fantasy points per game over the final four games of the fantasy football season despite seeing less than six targets in two of those games. More importantly, Bateman was productive when he got targeted. In the eight games, he saw five or more targets, Bateman averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game. While some will be scared off by the rumors surrounding Antonio Brown and the Ravens, Bateman is a prime candidate to break out next season.
In his first game, Jordan had a career-high 13.1 fantasy points as he caught three of four targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. Despite seeing only 28 targets this season, the ninth most on the team, Jordan had three receiving touchdowns, the second-most. Furthermore, he averaged nine fantasy points per game in the four games with four or more targets, scoring more than 12.5 fantasy points in two of them. Jordan played 36 percent or more of the snaps in six games this season, scoring at least 9.6 fantasy points in half of them. While he played a limited role as a rookie, Jordan has the potential for a larger next in 2022.
The Texans have several critical needs to fill this offseason, mostly on defense. Currently, Jordan is the only Texans tight end under contract for next season, with Pharaoh Brown, Jordan Akins, and Antony Auclair becoming free agents next month. Furthermore, there are reports that the Texans could trade Brandin Cooks and Laremy Tunsil this offseason. If Cooks gets traded, that will open up 134 targets from last season. Fantasy players need to trade for Jordan now as it will be twice as expensive come July.
Players to Sell
Yes, Harris was the RB3 last season. However, there are concerns with the rookie running back. First is the uncertainty around the quarterback position in Pittsburgh. While Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t an elite quarterback towards the end of his career, defenses still respected him. General manager Kevin Colbert recently said Mason Rudolph would be the starter if the season started today. If Rudolph is the starting quarterback next season, defenses will turn all their attention towards stopping Harris. Furthermore, the offensive line struggled last season, and it impacted Harris. The rookie running back averaged only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt last year.
While Harris led all running backs with 94 targets last season, 19 (20.2 percent) came in one game. While he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game last season, Harris had only three games with over 94 rushing yards. He averaged under 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in 76.5 percent of the time last season, including under 3.5 yards per rushing attempt in 52.9 percent of the games. Furthermore, Harris averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game when he found the end zone. By comparison, he averaged 13 fantasy points per game when he didn’t score a touchdown. Now is the time to trade him away for a bounty of picks and a higher upside running back like D’Andre Swift.
For the record, I am still on the Trey Sermon hype train and have bought shares of him in dynasty. Part of the reason is my concerns with Mitchell. He was the RB15 on a points per game basis, averaging 15 fantasy points per game last season. However, he was the RB26 overall with 165 fantasy points. Mitchell missed six games last season because of injuries. Even when he was on the field, Mitchell scored under 9.5 fantasy points in 36.4 percent of the games last season. Furthermore, the 49ers gave Deebo Samuel snaps at running back in the second half of the year and had success with the move.
More importantly, Trey Lance will be the starting quarterback next season. Lance averaged 12 rushing attempts per game in his two starts. Mitchell averaged 15 rushing attempts per game in those two contests. By comparison, Mitchell averaged 19.7 rushing attempts per game with Jimmy Garoppolo starting. Meanwhile, the addition of Anthony Lynn as the assistant head coach could mean more touches for Sermon. Last year, Lynn wanted the Detroit Lions to add a physical running back in Jamaal Williams. With Mitchell struggling with injuries as a rookie, the 49ers could turn their backfield into a 1-2 punch. Furthermore, the 49ers could add a running back this offseason, crushing Mitchell’s value. Sell high on the former sixth-round pick.
St. Brown was a league winner last season. Over the final six weeks of the season, St. Brown was the WR2, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game, only behind Cooper Kupp. However, St. Brown is a prototypical sell high candidate. He scored 151.1 of his 227.3 fantasy points (66.5 percent) in the final six games of the year. In the first 11 games, he averaged only 6.9 fantasy points per game. By comparison, St. Brown scored over 23 fantasy points in five of the final six games last season. Furthermore, he averaged 4.7 targets per game over the first 11 games of the year. St. Brown then averaged 11.2 targets per game over the final six games. The big difference between the two splits? T.J. Hockenson.
The third-year tight end averaged a career-high 6.9 targets per game before a hand injury ended his season in Week 13. In the 12 games with Hockenson, St. Brown averaged 5.3 targets and 8.4 fantasy points per game, scoring more than 13.5 fantasy points in only one of those games. By comparison, St. Brown averaged 11 targets and 25.3 fantasy points per game in the five games without Hockenson, seeing at least ten targets in every game. St. Brown is a solid NFL wide receiver and a good fantasy asset. However, the hype around him has gone off the rails. The Lions have the draft capital and salary cap space to add at least one, if not two, wide receivers this offseason, impacting St. Brown’s fantasy value.
Check out our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings
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