The deepest position in fantasy baseball is also the most versatile. Good outfield contributors for each hitting category can be had all throughout most drafts. As such, this position is rife with strong sleeper and breakout candidates every season. Finding busts can be difficult, though, especially at a position that consistently carries more value than any other. Sure, some OFs can and will flat-out underperform. However, many disappointing OFs will just merely fall short of the general expectations placed upon them. Even then, those players will likely still provide value in some categories and could be fine selections if they’re had for a discount. With all that being said, our featured pundits are back to share their biggest busts, breakouts and sleepers in the outfield. Read on to see who they suggest you should target or avoid.
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Q1. Who’s your biggest bust inside the top 20 OFs and why?
Byron Buxton (MIN): Consensus Rank – OF16
“Buxton has a ton of upside and produces when he’s on the field. The 28-year-old slashed .306/358/.647 with 19 home runs and nine stolen bases over 61 games in 2021. However, there’s too much risk drafting Buxton within the top-20 outfielders. He’s been plagued by injuries throughout his career and played 100 games just once during his seven-year career. During the offseason, Buxton signed a seven-year, $100 million contract extension with the Twins and has proven to be an impact player when healthy. Fantasy managers know the upside is there, but staying on the field continues to be an issue for the Twins’ outfielder, making him a high-risk pick at his current ADP of 61.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)
“Byron Buxton has the talent to be one of the best outfielders in all of baseball. Last year, he batted .306 with 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases in just 61 games. But that’s the problem: he only played in 61 games. Over the last four seasons, he has appeared in just 215 games combined. If (and it’s the biggest IF there is) he can stay healthy and play even 130 games in 2022, he could put up truly elite numbers, but even that isn’t a given for a career .248 hitter.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Luis Robert (CWS): Consensus Rank – OF8
“Robert has an alluring combination of power and speed, but his top-20 ADP feels overly aggressive for a 24-year-old, pre-peak player who’s already dealt with health issues. Robert’s artificially high .394 BABIP last year resulted in a .338 batting average, which is contributing to his stratospheric ADP. There’s 40-HR power lurking here, but Robert has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. It’s fine to be bullish on Robert’s future, but drafters are paying too high a price for a player whose best seasons are probably still a few years away.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Cedric Mullins II (BAL): Consensus Rank – OF13
“Let me preface, I LOVE Mullins. He’s a throwback baseball player and is great for the game. However, from a fantasy perspective, his 30-HR mark seems unrepeatable. His career .426 SLG% in the minor leagues coupled with the fact 22 HRs came in Camden Yards (which just had the fences moved back) means he’s more likely a 15 HR/30 SB guy. Still very valuable, but questionable as top-20 material.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Q2. Who’s your top breakout candidate inside the top 65 OFs and why?
Dylan Carlson (STL): Consensus Rank – OF48
“Carlson showed improvement at the plate after struggling mightily in 2020. He slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs, 65 RBIs, 79 runs, and two stolen bases over 619 plate appearances last season. The 23-year-old should see an increase in power as his 12.2% HR/FB should improve (17.2% HR/FB in Triple-A), and he finished last season strong by popping three home runs over his final six games. The Cardinals’ outfielder is a threat on the base paths and is 73rd in percentile ranks for sprint speed. Carlson continues to evolve as a hitter and has 25/15 upside, making him a potential breakout candidate at his current 152nd overall ADP.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)
Jarred Kelenic (SEA): Consensus Rank – OF44
“Kelenic wasn’t ready for ‘The Show’ in 2021. Through 93 games, he batted .181 with a 28.1% strikeout rate and looked lost at the plate more often than not. But he’s still just 22 years old, flew through five different levels of the minor leagues in 2018 and 2019, and didn’t play any official games at all during the lost 2020 minor league season. He was excellent in 30 games at Triple-A in 2021 but just wasn’t ready for the jump to the big leagues. He finished the year strong for the Mariners, though, and I’m betting on him finding his footing in 2022.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Alex Kirilloff (MIN): Consensus Rank – OF62
“Kirilloff is currently going as the 62nd outfielder off the board and he has the potential to be a top-25 outfielder by season’s end. He hit .318 over 280 minor league games with an .869 OPS. At age 23 last season, he was just getting his feet wet. He has a polished approach at the plate and could make a significant jump in his first full season at the big-league level.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Eloy Jimenez (CWS): Consensus Rank – OF19
“Jimenez is being overshadowed by another young White Sox outfielder, Luis Robert, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Jimenez had the better season. Eloy’s injury-plagued 2021 campaign was a letdown after his electric performance in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, yet he still had 10 HRs and 37 RBIs in only 57 games. It wasn’t long ago that Jimenez was an uber-prospect, and we’ve already seen glimpses of the thunder in his bat. We’ll get a more sustained look in 2021 now that he’s fully healthy.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Q3. Who’s your favorite sleeper outside the top 65 OFs and why?
Andrew Vaughn (CWS): Consensus Rank – OF66
“Vaughn’s final stats were below fantasy expectations in 2021. He slashed .235/.309/.396 with 15 home runs and a .705 OPS over 127 games. The 23-year-old has 70-grade power with the upside to be a four-category star. In July of last season, he flashed his potential, slashing .308/.347/.516 with four homers and 12 RBIs over 98 plate appearances. The former No. 2 overall pick struggled to gain consistency after that and found himself on the bench as the season wore down. Vaughn will play every day as he is expected to be Chicago’s primary designated hitter. If he can make the necessary adjustments in 2022, the young slugger is worth taking a flier on and has the upside to smash his current 201 ADP.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)
Jesus Sanchez (MIA): Consensus Rank – OF78
“Sanchez batted .251 with 14 home runs in 64 games (251 plate appearances) in 2021, and he did that despite a 31.1% strikeout rate. Through 37 games (155 plate appearances) in Triple-A last season, he batted .348 with 10 home runs and an 18.7% strikeout rate. The power is real, and I think he’ll take another step in 2022 and drop his strikeout rate down closer to what we saw throughout his minor league career. If he plays every day – and he should – he has 30 home run upside to go with what should be a batting average above .250 and somewhere around 150 combined runs scored and RBIs.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Anthony Santander (BAL): Consensus Rank – OF68
“In 2020, Santander belted 11 HRs in only 153 at-bats. He hit 18 HRs in 406 at-bats last season, and his batting average fell 20 points to .241. Santander’s BABIP luck has been bad throughout his career, and 2020 gave us reason to believe that his power is legit. He’s only 27, so there’s still time for him to put it all together and give us a 30-HR season with a .275 batting average.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Brandon Nimmo (NYM): Consensus Rank – OF80
“If Nimmo could just play 150 games one year he’d be a fantasy stud, especially in OBP formats. The Mets’ outfield situation is still a bit in flux, but the NL DH rule should open up more at-bats for him, regardless. He has 15 HR/15 SB upside and if he hits at the top third of the order he’d be a lock for 100 runs in a full season. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for giving us their outfielders to target and avoid. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter.
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