I’ve already covered hitters to target and hitters to avoid; now, I’ll take a crack at the pitcher’s to target.
But first, some notes 1) a pitcher with a WHIP above 1.07 or an ERA above 3.02 is hurting your ratios. 2) Baseball Savant tracks ~2,400 pitches, including different pitches for the same pitcher, e.x. deGrom’s fastball and deGrom’s slider are two separate pitches. 3) ‘Run Value’ is a counting statistic, not a ratio stat, and 4) all player rater references are among pitchers only.
Now, I’ve crunched the numbers, so you don’t have to; let’s dive in!
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Pitchers to draft
Carlos Rodon (SP – FA) (ADP – 104)
Carlos Rodon went from ashy to classy in 2021; opposing hitters were straight up not having a good time. Rodon set a career-high in average fastball velocity (95.4 MPH) and had two plus-plus pitches, a 4-seamer (the best pitch in the show last year, -26 Run-Value), and a slider (36th, -14 RV). He didn’t qualify for the ERA title, but he would have won it (2.37 ERA) and tied for third in the majors in WHIP (0.96). Rodon’s like an iPhone that managers treat as an Android; he was eighth-best on the player rater last season (ahead of Robbie Ray, Brandon Woodruff, and Gerrit Cole), but managers are choosing him 39th (after Aroldis Chapman, Shane McClanahan, and Yu Darvish). ZIPS projects a 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but I believe they underestimate Rodon and weigh his pre-Tommy-John numbers too heavily.
Adam Wainwright (SP – STL) (ADP – 162)
Adam Wainwright must’ve been hanging out with Jamie Moyer the last off-season because 40 is the new 32 for the Cardinal legend; it’s like acme replaced his throwing arm with a rubber hose. I usually don’t advise chasing wins in fantasy baseball, but ‘Waino’ might as well be nicknamed ‘Winnie the Pooh’ after finishing second in the majors last season (17 W). I think he can keep raiding the ‘Hunny Pot’ since he pitches deep into games (206 IP last season, third in the bigs) and has a good offense. And before you ask, the Cardinals averaged 4.75 runs per nine innings when Wainwright was the starter (28th among 39 qualified pitchers). He’s got two plus pitches: a sinker (22nd best pitch in baseball, -15 Run-Value) and a curveball (72nd, -11 RV). Besides that, ‘Waino’ was 14th on the player rater last season, finishing 11th in ERA (3.05) and tenth in WHIP (1.06). For the low-low price of a 13th round pick, you can draft a pitcher with a career 3.35 ERA in over 2,000 innings.
Chad Green (RP – NYY) (ADP – 375)
It’s closing time, the lights come on, but instead of going home alone, you chat up the bartender and pull off one of the best moments in hook-up history; that’s what it’s like drafting Chad Green in the last round. Do you think I’m kidding? “Who drafts a setup man in fantasy baseball,” you ask? It’s 2022, babe; ‘setup men’ are a construct; ‘Greeny’ was 28th on the player rater last season, ahead of Mark Melancon, Edwin Diaz, and Frankie Montas. He had a 0.88 WHIP (2nd among qualified pitchers) and a 5.82 K/BB ratio pitching in high leverage situations for the Yankees. ZIPS projects a 3.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but he’s got a career 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, so there’s an upside. Plus, if anything happens to Aroldis Chapman, Green’s managers have a top-ten closer, easy.
Max Scherzer (SP – NYM) (ADP – 15)
Mets owner Steve Cohen backed up the yacht to team Scherzer up with Jake deGrom in a modern-day reincarnation of ‘Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.’ Scherzer will move from a hitters park to a pitchers park and make enough money to register as a business on the American Stock Exchange. I imagine Buck Showalter will lose sleep deciding who to start on Opening Day. ‘Mad Max’ led the majors in WHIP (0.86), was second in both ERA (2.46) and K/BB ratio (6.56), and fourth in strikeouts (236 K’s). He dominated with a 4-Seamer (12th best pitch in the show, -18 Run-Value) and a Slider (20th, -15 RV). No other pitcher has two top-20 offerings. ZIPS projects a 3.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 231 K. That’s his floor.
Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL) (ADP – 18)
Last season, Brandon Woodruff didn’t have to worry about sunstroke because he was pitching in Corbin Burnes‘ shadow. He was a bonafide ace on any other team (except maybe the Phillies or Dodgers), but on the Brewers, Burnes’ was Elsa, and Woodruff was Anna. Woodruff finished 11th on the player rater, but if you eliminate wins/saves from the equation, he leapfrogs Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Liam Hendricks, and Julio Urias into sixth place. Woodruff ended the season 11th in strikeouts (211), fourth in ERA (2.56), and third in WHIP (0.96). He’s the only pitcher in baseball with four top-175 pitches: sinker (27th, -14 Run-Value), 4-seamer (125th, -8 RV), changeup (145th, -7 RV), and curveball (165th, -6 RV). To put it simply, Brandon Woodruff is filthy like a pig in mud. However, he must have done something to anger the baseball gods because he had the worst run support (2.86 RS/9) and won only nine games. ZIPS projects a 3.08 ERA and 1.05 WHIP right in line with his career 3.23 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR) (ADP – 50)
Drafting Kevin Gausman is like buying a brand new car at used car prices. He’s being drafted after Sandy Alcantara, Lucas Giolito, and Aaron Nola, but was ninth on the player rater, sixth in strikeouts (227 K’s) and ERA (2.81), and seventh in WHIP (1.04). However, it’s not all strikeouts and roses for Gausman, he’s leaving the friendly confines of San Francisco for big bad AL East, and his ERA jumped from 1.73 in the first half to 4.42 in the second half. However, his second-half slide was lousy luck (3.23 xFIP in the second half), and the impending Universal DH softens the league switch plus, with the Blue Jays explosive offense, maybe he’ll have more run support (and win more games). Gausman’s not-so-secret weapon is his splitter (second-best pitch in baseball, -23 Run-Value) and his 4-Seamer (52nd, -12 RV). ZIPS projects a 3.61 ERA/1.12 WHIP, but I believe he can be better than that since they’re not weighing the improvement in his splitter vs. earlier in his career.
Jordan Romano (RP – TOR) (ADP – 120)
I like to wait as long as possible to draft a closer; it’s like tight end or quarterback in fantasy football. Not because I don’t appreciate the excellent ratios, but because they throw one-third the innings of a front-line starter and are more volatile. Even the best closers will be lucky to reach one-hundred strikeouts, which the worst starters top easily. Also, as George Bluth might say, there are always saves on the waiver wire: exhibit A – Jordan Romano, the best relief pitcher in Canada. He was 25th on the player rater last season despite not taking over as closer full-time until August. Romano’s stuff is spectacular; his fastball blisters like tomatoes in the oven (97.6 MPH average velocity), and his slider keeps hitters off-balance. ZIPS projects a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but that’s way under his career 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Giovanny Gallegos (RP – STL) (ADP – 132)
Giovanny Gallegos was like a broken lamp last season: light’s out. He didn’t take over Alex Reyes‘s closer role until September, but he was dominant all season, recording a 3.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 4.75 K/BB ratio. Despite the lack of saves and wins, he was the 35th best pitcher in fantasy, ahead of Logan Webb, Edwin Diaz, and Aroldis Chapman. Gallegos owes his dominance to his 4-Seamer (70th best pitch in the show, -11 Run-Value) and Slider (91st, -10RV). Of course, it pains me to write this as a Yankees fan because Gallegos was the guy the Cardinals got for Luke Voit. ZIPS projects a 3.14 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, but I believe his WHIP will be better than that.
Charlie Morton (SP – ATL) (ADP – 84)
Charlie Morton is so old they named the curveball after him, ‘Uncle Charlie.’ His curve was the best in baseball (seventh-best pitch overall, -21 Run-Value). Drafters tend to shy away from older pitchers, which is why managers are drafting Morton as the 33rd starter despite finishing 21st last year, ahead of Sandy Alcantara, Joe Musgrove, and Ryan Pressly. Morton tossed 186 innings, the second-highest IP of his career, and was 9th in the majors in strikeouts (216 K’s). He had a 95.3 average fastball velocity, not bad for a guy who went to high school with George Washington. His situation hasn’t changed; Morton’s still in Atlanta and still a big-game pitcher. ZIPS projects a 3.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but I believe he can outperform both of those numbers.
Michael Kopech (RP – CHW) (ADP – 169)
If you play in a dynasty league, you already know about former top prospect Michael Kopech. Last year, his first since returning from Tommy John surgery, he was excellent in a relief role for the White Sox, finishing with 103 K’s in 69 innings. He would have led the majors in K/9 had he qualified, and his 2.76 xERA/2.99 xFIP points to some bad luck in regards to ERA. He will have a chance to move into the rotation this Spring Training, and while I have concerns about workload/transition to starting, Kopech has mouthwatering upside for a low investment. He has throws faster than Tyler Glasnow or Zack Wheeler, and his fastball has more spin than Clayton Kershaw. Of course, you can’t cherry-pick stats like this, but just for fun, he allowed 14 of 27 ER in three appearances (3.1 IP out of 69.1); without those games, his ERA would have been 1.77.
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Lucas Babits-Feinerman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Lucas, check out his archive and follow him @WSonFirst.