The final week of the regular season throws a wrench into research. Teams have varying degrees of motivation for using starters, and Vinnie Iyer succinctly laid out the playoff scenarios for The Sporting News. As a result, the playoff picture has a huge hand in my lineup decisions for Saturday’s two-game slate.
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Week 18 Saturday Matchups
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: KC -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total of 27.5 points. In addition, they have a path to the top seed in the AFC with a win and a Titans loss, and they could fall from the two seed. Thus, they have the motivation to beat the Broncos, a club they drubbed 22 to 9 in Week 13.
As a result, the three-person stack of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is easily my favorite on the slate. I won't expand any further on them, as their respective cases for usage are apparent.
Meanwhile, Darrel Williams is an excellent selection on the heavily-favored Chiefs as well. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't practiced this week, setting the stage for another feature-back role for Williams. This year, Williams has made six starts, surpassing 75 scrimmage yards in five of them and catching at least three passes in each.
Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman are the ancillary players that are worth consideration. Hardman's speed makes him a home-run threat. However, according to Pro Football Focus, he's run only 48 routes since Week 15. Meanwhile, Pringle has run 84 routes, second-most on the team, parlaying them into 12 receptions for 132 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Finally, the Chiefs are the biggest favorites, and Drew Lock is an erratic signal-caller. That's an ideal combination for Kansas City's defense piling up points.
Broncos Analysis: Javonte Williams was a bright spot in the first meeting with the Chiefs. Melvin Gordon III was out, and the rookie running back erupted for 102 rushing yards, six receptions, 76 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Gordon has since returned, sharing backfield duties with Williams.
However, Williams is a more dynamic runner with a more secure role, running more routes than the veteran. Since Week 14, Williams has run 54 routes versus 41 for Gordon. Additionally, Williams is one of the most impressive ball carriers this year. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this year, Williams has been 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.39 YCO/A), seventh in 10-plus yard rushes (24), and tied for first in missed tackles forced (60).
In the passing game, I'm not overpaying for Denver's crowded receiving room. Instead, I'm intrigued by their athletically-gifted tight end duo of Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam. Since Week 15, Fant has been second on the team in routes (74), tied for first in targets (17) and touchdown receptions (one), and first in receptions (14) and receiving yards (179). Conversely, Albert O has run only 30 routes, but he's netted eight targets (a whopping 26.7% target per route-run rate). I'm doubling up on tight ends on most of my rosters, making Fant or Okwuegbunam viable options with Kelce.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: DAL -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys could conceivably take it easy on their starters since their most-likely scenario is remaining the No. 4 seed. However, they could climb as high as the No. 2 seed if everything breaks perfectly for them. Is that enough reason to use their starters the entire game? I'm not sure. However, I like their odds of using their starters for the bulk of the game more than Philadelphia's.
So, Dak Prescott is my favorite pivot from Mahomes. Although, I'm not crazy about using any quarterback who isn't Mahomes.
Parsing through his passing-game option, Dalton Schultz is my favorite pick in a mouthwatering matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Eagles allow the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Moreover, he's a linchpin in the offense. Since Week 15, he is tied for second in routes (105), tied for first in touchdown receptions (two), and leads the team in targets (27), receptions (22), and receiving yards (203).
The receivers have much tougher sledding this week. The Eagles allow the second-fewest DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts. Still, I dig CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Cedrick Wilson Jr. Unfortunately, Michael Gallup is out for the rest of the year. In his absence, Wilson will move into three-receiver sets in the slot, kicking Lamb to the perimeter with Cooper. Each has merit for usage, and I'll probably mix all three if I multi-enter contests.
Finally, the Cowboys are my favorite defense, factoring in the salary and likelihood of facing Philly's reserves for most or all of this week's game.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles will be either the sixth seed or the seventh seed, playing on the road in either scenario. Philadelphia has many players on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, and Jalen Hurts was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. So, I expect them to exercise caution with Hurts and anyone feeling less than 100% activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
Gardner Minshew is a capable backup. So, if he starts or relieves Hurts early, he can help multiple pass-catchers produce fantasy-worthy numbers, namely on this short slate. Unfortunately, Dallas Goedert (on the Reserve/COVID-19 list) and DeVonta Smith are the clear-cut top options in the passing attack, so they might take a cautious approach with their playing time.
Yes, in the previous three games, Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins are third and fourth on the team in routes. However, someone has to play for the Eagles, and they're less integral pass-catchers than Goedert and Smith. Thus, they might receive their full complement of work. However, Greg Ward might mix in a bit more, too. I'm most interested in Watkins and his blazing speed out of the trio, as he can produce value on as little as one play. According to Sharp Football Stats, Dallas allowed the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate in 2021.
Finally, Boston Scott is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list but could be back in time to play this week. Ideally, starting running back Miles Sanders will return for their Wild Card game. So, they might not feel as compelled to keep Scott in bubble wrap. However, if the Eagles find themselves in a hole early, rookie pass-catching back Kenneth Gainwell might be more active in the offense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
