Week 18 is the regular-season finale, and it’s a beast unlike any other. Teams that are playoff bound have an incentive to rest starters. Meanwhile, others jostling for seeding might be more inclined to play this week straight up. But, of course, teams eliminated from playoff contention could also give younger players a look. In summation, it’s a chaotic week. Still, we can make educated guesses about how teams will opt to use personnel by factoring in their playoff scenarios and contract incentives (great job by Anthony Amico of Establish the Run breaking down the incentives in the following Twitter thread).
Week 18 Matchups
Game: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Spread: GB -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Packers Analysis: The Packers have sewn up the top seed in the NFC. They may use the starters for part of the game with a playoff bye in mind and rust versus rest considerations. Still, it’s a situation to avoid — get used to reading that throughout this piece.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown is balling out down the stretch, proving to be quarterback-proof in the process. The rookie receiver has 11 or more targets, eight or more receptions, and 73 or more receiving yards in five straight, scoring a touchdown in four of those games. As a result, the FantasyPros lineup optimizer projects him as the WR7 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the WR5 value score at the former.
D'Andre Swift returned from an injury last week, and his four rush attempts for 32 scoreless yards and two catches for seven scoreless yards on three targets don't tell the whole story. According to the FantasyPros NFL snap counts leaders page, the second-year back played the highest offensive snap share (57%) among Detroit's running backs. Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus, Swift ran 25 routes, nearly three times as many as Craig Reynolds (five) and Jamaal Williams (four) combined. So, he's a rebound candidate, probably against Green Bay's reserve defenders for much of Sunday's game, making him the RB8 in value score at DraftKings.
Finally, Detroit's defense is my favorite punt at both daily fantasy providers, likely facing Jordan Love and backups for most of this NFC North matchup. Our optimizer also projects them as a relative bargain, giving them the DST4 value score at DraftKings and the DST6 value score at FanDuel.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: IND -15.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor will probably be the chalkiest player on the slate, and I'm not dissuading you from using him across all game types. The Colts face a must-win game, and Taylor is the offense for the Colts. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the second-year back is second in rushing yards per game (108.4), and first in rush attempts (317), rushing touchdowns (18), and longest rush (83). Further, he lights up the advanced metrics. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this year, Taylor has been third in yards after contact per rush attempt (3.83 YCO/A), tied for first in missed tackles forced (60), and first in 10-plus yard rushes (48). Taylor's a stud in an ideal situation, making him the RB1 at both sites, with the RB2 value score at DraftKings and top value score at the position on FanDuel.
However, in GPPs, I don't think it's crazy to pivot off Taylor, leveraging the situation with Michael Pittman Jr. It's possible Taylor rolls up yardage in bunches and fails to return value if he doesn't reach pay dirt. Pittman's the alpha in Indy's passing attack, earning a 25.6% target share that's 11th highest, per Sports Info Solutions. He's also a well-liked value by our optimizer, projecting for the WR7 value score at FanDuel and the WR3 value score at DraftKings.
Finally, the Colts are huge favorites against the lowly Jaguars. They are tied for first in turnovers forced (33), adding 32 sacks for good measure. I don't intend on playing them as a one-off. However, they're an attractive stacking partner with Taylor, projecting as the DST4 at both daily fantasy outlets.
Jaguars Analysis: Laquon Treadwell is the only bring-back option in a game-stack with Taylor. He's surprisingly risen from first-round bust status to emerge as Jacksonville's No. 1 receiver down the stretch. He has had five or more targets, four or more receptions, and 53 receiving yards or more in six straight games.
Game: Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Spread: WAS -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Football Team Analysis: I'm inclined to avoid this game altogether. However, if you need the salary relief on DraftKings, John Bates is the bottom-of-the-barrel tight end who's worth a look this week. Bates has been 11th among tight ends in routes (59) in the previous two weeks, turning them into five receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. Being out there running routes at a relatively high rate is all you can ask for from a $3,000 or cheaper tight end, frankly.
Giants Analysis: Using Big Blue in daily fantasy sports is akin to attending Barnum & Bailey performing under a burning circus tent. It's not intelligent. Avoid this clown show at all costs.
Game: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Bears Analysis: David Montgomery is the classic every-down back, a dying breed in the modern NFL. Monty's 76% snap share is the second-highest among running backs this year, paving the way to per-game averages of 17.1 rush attempts, 64.8 rushing yards, 3.3 receptions, and 24.5 receiving yards, with seven touchdowns. The third-year bac has a great matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 25th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Minnesota allows the 10th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs. So, Montgomery projects as the RB4 at DraftKings and FanDuel, sporting the RB5 value score at the former and RB3 value score at the latter.
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings are eliminated from the playoff contention, and Kirk Cousins is coming back from the Reserve/COVID-19 list, something numerous players haven't done seamlessly this year. Further, it's illogical to run all-world running back Dalvin Cook into the ground in a meaningless game. Therefore, I'm not touching Minnesota's players in daily fantasy in Week 18.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Spread: TEN -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Titans Analysis: The Titans will be the No. 1 seed and have a first-round bye if they defeat the Texans this weekend. So, they have every reason to play hard. Unfortunately, A.J. Brown let gamers down in a laugher last week, catching only two of five targets for 41 scoreless yards. Nevertheless, the passing game goes through Tennessee's top receiver. His 21 targets represent a silly 38,3% target share in the previous two weeks. So, if the Texans can force the Titans to keep their foot on the accelerator a bit, Brown's ceiling is sky-high. We project Brown as the WR5 at both sites, with the WR4 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FanDuel.
Still, my favorite option from the Titans is D'Onta Foreman. He's the top ball-carrier in Derrick Henry's stead. The Titans are huge favorites, putting Foreman in an excellent spot to eat. Foreman has rumbled for more than 100 yards in three of his last five games, scoring a touchdown in the two games he didn't surpass the century mark. The FantasyPros projection algorithm gives him the RB7 value score at FanDuel and the RB3 value score at DraftKings.
Texans Analysis: I'm enamored with stacking Foreman and Brandin Cooks. Houston's No. 1 receiver is a certified ball hog. Cooks has had a juicy 25.8% target share on Davis Mills' pass attempts this year, leading the Texans in receptions (66), receiving yards (710), air yards (960), and touchdown receptions (five touchdowns). He has the WR9 value score among wideouts at DraftKings in Week 18.
Mills is included in the table with game-stacking Foreman and Cooks in mind. I won't use him as a solo play.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: Najee Harris leads running backs in 2021 with an 86% snap share. The rookie is active in the passing game, averaging 4.4 receptions and 27.5 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions. He's not a slouch on the ground, either, averaging 73.3 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns. So, he's a viable pivot off Taylor in GPPs, namely on DraftKings' full-point point-per-reception platform. Harris projects as the RB5 at both daily fantasy sites.
If you're using Harris, I don't hate stacking Pittsburgh's disruptive defense with him. They put on a sack clinic against the Browns in Week 17, and all of Baltimore's signal-callers are prone to taking sacks at a high rate. Blitzburgh projects for the DST7 value score at DraftKings and DST3 value score at FanDuel this week.
Chase Claypool is the other daily fantasy consideration from the Steelers, likely seeing a usage spike in the wake of Diontae Johnson's placement on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday. Regardless, Claypool would have been included in this space after running 42 routes and netting nine targets last week. A similar workload this week should bear more fruit against Baltimore's hapless secondary. The Ravens are 30th in pass defense DVOA, ceding the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts.
Ravens Analysis: Mark Andrews has been the top tight end in the NFL this year, leading the position in routes (585), targets (134), receptions (99), receiving yards (1,276), and tying for the lead with nine touchdown receptions. Moreover, according to Pro Football Focus, among tight ends targeted at least 50 times, he is third with 2.18 yards per route run (Y/RR). Understandably, he is projected as the TE1 across the daily fantasy industry, ranking as the TE3 in value score at FanDuel.
Devonta Freeman's emergence from the ashes isn't something I saw happening this year. The veteran back has an offensive snap share of at least 56% in five straight games and all but one game since Baltimore's Week 8 bye. Moreover, his notable offensive role plays well in a mouthwatering matchup. The Steelers are 27th in rush defense DVOA, allowing the second-most rushing yards (1,879) to running backs at a scintillating 4.81 yards per rush attempt. Finally, when these two foes met in Week 13, Freeman produced 97 scrimmage yards, five receptions, and one touchdown. He's a desirable punt.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Bengals Analysis
Browns Analysis: I'm lumping the analysis for both teams into one blurb. Baker Mayfield is out, and Joe Burrow is expected to sit to rest up for the playoffs. So neither team has anything to play for, the game's over/under it gross, and both teams probably want the clock to run as fast as possible so they can escape unscathed by injury. Does that put the defenses on the DFS radar? I suppose. Still, I'm wholly avoiding this game.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: I'm old enough to remember the Panthers as a 3-0 club. It's been a freefall since. Carolina doesn't have an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, and they fired their offensive coordinator during their Week 13 bye week. This is yet another toxic situation to avoid in daily fantasy.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers can climb as high as the second seed in the NFC with a win and a Rams loss. Additionally, head coach Bruce Arians didn't leave any doubt about his approach to resting players this week.
Regardless, I think it's possible the Panthers go through the motions, get thumped, and Tampa Bay pulls their starters early. So, I'm fading Tom Brady and Mike Evans.
However, I like Rob Gronkowski and field-stretching wideouts Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman. First, Gronk is a threat to score touchdowns. According to the FantasyPros red zone stats, Gronk has 12 red-zone targets and six touchdown receptions inside the 20, despite playing in only 13 games. However, he's not a touchdown-or-bust option, reaching double-digit targets in two of his last three games and amassing 115 receiving yards on seven receptions in Week 17. As a result, the optimizer projects him as the TE4 at both sites with a matchup value score at FanDuel.
Grayson is the better option of the touted speedy receivers. Since Week 16, he has been third on the Bucs in routes (51) and targets (11), second in receptions (nine), and first in receiving yards (162), adding the game-winning touchdown grab last week as a cherry on top. Meanwhile, Perriman ran only nine routes in his return from the Reserve/COVID-19 list in Week 17 but netted three targets, two receptions, and 41 receiving yards. I'm also willing to speculate he could usurp some snaps from Evans if they opt to take it easy on their star receiver ahead of the playoffs.
Game: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Spread: NE -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: Last week was a microcosm of the fantasy frustration attached to the Patriots. Their offensive star in Week 17 was practice-squad call-up, Kristian Wilkerson. If the Patriots sit Damien Harris to rest his hamstring, Rhamondre Stevenson is a rock-solid but not a must-use option at running back. Otherwise, I suggest fading their committee offense.
Dolphins Analysis: Do you remember when the Dolphins were the talk of NFL media for stringing together a winning streak against trash quarterbacks and bad teams? That was adorable. The fraudulent 'Phins came back to Earth last week, and the Patriots will presumably steamroll them this week. With an implied total of 18.25 points, the Dolphins aren't an attractive squad for daily fantasy options.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: NO -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Saints Analysis: The Saints can claim a Wild Card berth with a win and a loss by the 49ers. Nevertheless, their offense is a low-functioning unit. However, Taysom Hill is a one-man show -- for better and worse. The running quarterback has rushed the ball at least 11 times in four straight games, beesting 220 passing yards in two of those games. The floor is low, given his limitations as a passer. However, his rushing ability is appealing against the Falcons (30th in rush defense DVOA). Thus, he has the QB4 value score at FanDuel and the QB2 value score at DraftKings.
Falcons Analysis: The Saints are fourth in total DVOA. They're first in rush defense DVOA and fourth in pass defense DVOA. So, the Dirty Birds have their hands full, and they're best avoided in Week 18.
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -16.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Jets Analysis: The Jets have an implied total of 12.5 points. Yeah, that's a no from me.
Bills Analysis: The Bills will win the AFC East with a victory over the Jets. However, despite last week's surprisingly good showing against the Bucs, the Jets are unlikely to offer much resistance. As a result, I don't expect the Bills to recklessly put Josh Allen in harm's way with designed runs. Moreover, the Jets are 26th in rush defense DVOA, positioning the Bills to continue to force-feed Devin Singletary and lean on their defense for a win.
So, Singletary and Buffalo's defense are the options I'm most interested in. The Jets allow the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs, and Singletary is rolling. The third-year back has at least 78 scrimmage yards in four straight games, scored a touchdown in three straight, and corralled 12 receptions in the four-game stretch. Buffalo's defense is an excellent stacking option or standalone play as the biggest betting favorite, playing at home, tying for third in turnovers forced (30), and piling up 33 stacks. Singletary is the RB8 at both sites with the RB4 value score at DraftKings and RB2 value score at FanDuel. Buffalo's defense is the DST1 with a matching value score at both providers this week.
Finally, while I'm fading Allen and Stefon Diggs, tight end Dawson Knox, and Gabriel Davis are enticing exposure to Buffalo's passing attack. Both are red-zone darlings of Allen, with Knox ranking tied for third at tight end in red-zone targets (18) and Davis tied for 16th in red-zone targets (15) at receiver. Knox is the TE5 at both sites, with the TE5 value score at FanDuel and the TE4 value score at DraftKings.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers assure themselves a playoff berth with a win. Otherwise, they need the Saints to lose to reach the postseason. The quarterback situation is fluid. However, Jimmy Garoppolo threw passes in practice on Thursday, enhancing his outlook for suiting up.
I'd rather Trey Lance start for daily fantasy purposes. He has the QB3 value score at FanDuel and the QB1 value score at DraftKings. Thankfully, Garoppolo's salary is precisely the same as Lance's, giving gamers that have Lance on their rosters a seamless pivot if Jimmy G is named the starter after the early window of games starts.
Elijah Mitchell is tending to his knee injury. However, he's progressed from not participating in Wednesday's practice to limited participation in Thursday's practice. The rookie running back is fifth among qualified runners in rushing yards per game (87.8), excelling in multiple underlying metrics as well. Among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts, he has tied for fourth in 10-plus yard runs (27), ranking fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.75 YCO/A). Our optimizer projects the rookie as the RB7 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the RB8 value score at the latter and the RB1 value score at the former.
Finally, Deebo Samuel is a do-it-all weapon. He averages 98.6 scrimmage yards per game, hauling in 4.9 receptions per game and scoring 13 touchdowns. Samuel is used as a receiver, his natural position, and a running back. Thus, he has multiple avenues to scoring fantasy points, leading to a WR2 projection at both sites this week, the WR7 value score at DraftKings, and the WR3 value score at FanDuel.
Rams Analysis: The Rams hold their fate for the second seed in the NFC in their hands. If they win, they will remain the second seed. However, the Cardinals can overtake them for the NFC West division crown if they lose. So the Rams will play to win, suffice to say.
Thus, this is one of the safest games, regarding both teams playing hard. Cooper Kupp is the crown jewel of the game. He leads the NFL in target share (32.3%), red-zone targets (36), receptions per game (8.6), receiving yards per game (114.3), and touchdown receptions (15). Kupp is a stand-out in our optimizer, earning the top value score among receivers at both sites, projecting as the third-highest overall scorer at FanDuel, and the top overall scorer at DraftKings.
The matchup is good for Matthew Stafford, too. The 49ers are only 18th in pass defense DVOA. In his first year with the Rams, Stafford is second in passing yards per game (290.5), passing touchdowns (38), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.62 ANY/A). As a result, Stafford is one of only a few elite quarterbacks I include in my usable-player mix in Week 18. He projects as the QB4 at both daily fantasy providers, adding the QB2 value score at FanDuel to his ledger.
Odell Beckham Jr. is another worthwhile consideration after an interesting development last week. OBJ and Van Jefferson Jr. had seemingly been the co-WR2 on the Rams before last week. However, OBJ ran a team-high 36 routes last week compared to only 18 for Jefferson. As a result, Beckham has the WR6 value score at DraftKings this week.
Finally, Sony Michel is a volume-driven suggestion at running back, as the Rams' bell-cow back. Since Week 13, his offensive snap share has been 97%, 100%, 73%, 90%, and 98% in successive weeks. The former Patriot has turned his gaudy snap shares into 129 scrimmage yards, 79 scrimmage yards, 115 scrimmage yards, 135 scrimmage yards, and 99 scrimmage yards, adding nine receptions and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he's not flashy. Nonetheless, volume is volume, and it rules the roost at running back.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: I love this game for stacking purposes. Specifically, the pace grabs my attention. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks play at the 10th-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Cardinals play at the seventh-fastest pace.
Circling back to stacking, I explicitly highlighted Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Gerald Everett as a three-person stack I love at FanDuel for numberFire. Thankfully, my rationale for loving them at FanDuel carries over to DraftKings, making them a superb three-person stack there. So instead of rehashing my reasons for liking all three parties, I suggest checking out the linked piece. However, I'll add that Everett has the TE9 value score at DraftKings and the TE7 value score at FanDuel.
D.K. Metcalf is another stellar passing-game option. Unfortunately, he's reached triple-digit receiving yards only one time this year. Still, he scored three touchdowns with six receptions and 63 receiving yards last week. Further, he's bested 95 receiving yards with a touchdown two times, including a 98-yard, two-touchdown effort in Week 5. Thus, Metcalf's ceiling is still relatively high. He is the WR9 at DraftKings and the WR8 with the WR6 value score at FanDuel in Week 18.
Finally, Rashaad Penny is looking like the elite back the Seahawks hoped he'd be when selecting him with a first-round pick in 2018. Since Week 14, Penny has had three games with at least 135 rushing yards, scoring touchdowns in each of those games. During that stretch, he leads the NFL in missed tackles forced (21), and rushing yards (481), tying for first in rushing touchdowns (five) and 10-plus yard runs (12), and ranking second among backs with at least 20 rush attempts with 5.04 YCO/A. Penny has juice, and he's tailor-made to give the Cardinals fits. According to Sharp Football Stats, Arizona allows the highest average explosive run rate (15%). As a result, Penny is the RB10 at DraftKings and RB9 at FanDuel in our optimizer.
Cardinals Analysis: As I noted above, the Cardinals can still win the NFC West with some help. Thus, they're another team I trust to use their starters and play to win in Week 18. Unfortunately, their backfield is banged up. So, instead of investing in the running game, I'll lean into the passing attack.
Kyler Murray's ceiling is arguably the highest at the position. In four of his last five games, the speedy quarterback has rushed for more than 40 yards, getting back on track as a passer last week, throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. I like Murray's odds of staying hot this week against Seattle's suspect pass defense. The Seahawks are 27th in pass defense DVOA. The optimizer agrees with my positive outlook for Murray, projecting him as the QB2 at both sites.
Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz are the top options for Murray to throw the ball to. Since Week 15 (the first game after DeAndre Hopkins' regular-season-ending injury), Kirk has been second on the Cards in targets (29) and first in routes (130), receptions (22), and receiving yards (228). Meanwhile, Ertz has been third in receiving yards (169), second in routes (127) and receptions (21), and first in targets (33). Kirk has the WR5 value score at FanDuel, and Ertz has the TE3 projection with the TE1 value score at both daily fantasy outlets.
Finally, A.J. Green is the sneakier, GPP-worthy stacking partner with Murray. Since Week 15, he has been tied for third in targets (16), third in routes (110), and second in receiving yards (171) for the Cards. The veteran wideout has more than 60 receiving yards in two of his last three and four of his previous six games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
