This week’s storyline is about the Monday Night Football game likely being Ben Roethlisberger‘s final start at home in his NFL career. I suspect narrative street might creep into the percentage of rosters he is on, as it’s been discussed prominently in NFL stories at multiple outlets all week. However, the Browns are favored and the better overall team. Thankfully, both offenses are top-heavy, creating an opportunity to use the stars from each team while mixing in cheap dart-throw picks as well.
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Game: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CLE -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
This week’s storyline is about the Monday Night Football game likely being Ben Roethlisberger‘s final start at home in his NFL career. I suspect narrative street might creep into the percentage of rosters he is on, as it’s been discussed prominently in NFL stories at multiple outlets all week. However, the Browns are favored and the better overall team. Thankfully, both offenses are top-heavy, creating an opportunity to use the stars from each team while mixing in cheap dart-throw picks as well.
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Game: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CLE -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Browns Analysis: I listed Baker Mayfield in the table. However, I'm fading him. It's all about Cleveland's rushing attack tonight. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by six points and leading by six points, the Browns run at the 13th-highest rate (45% versus a 44% league average). However, they have an incentive to crank up the run even more against Pittsburgh's pathetic run defense.
According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 30th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Moreover, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Pittsburgh allows the second-most rushing yards (1,808) to running backs at a blistering 4.83 yards per rush attempt. So, Nick Chubb is going to eat. Pro Football Focus grades the Browns as the fourth-best run-blocking offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns offensive line is sixth in power-rush rank, fourth in stuffed-run rank, and first in Adjusted Line Yards.
Obviously, Chubb is a stud as well. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this year, Chubb has been third in missed tackles forced (55), second in 10-plus yard rushes (38), and first in yards after contact per rush attempt (4.21 YCO/A). As a result, Chubb is my favorite player on this single-game slate.
However, don't sleep on Kareem Hunt rumbling as well. He has been a limited practice participant this week, and he reportedly was moving around well.
Thus, I expect him to be active. In seven games Hunt and Chubb have played together this year, Hunt has toted the rock 64 times for 320 yards, sporting an elite 3.58 YCO/A. So, I'll gleefully use Chubb and Hunt together on my single-game rosters.
However, I'll get some passing-game exposure to the Browns, too. Jarvis Landry and Donovan Peoples-Jones are reasonably attractive options. Though, I'll fade the tight ends due to a challenging matchup and their tendency to cannibalize one another's work. The potentially sneaky pick is field-stretching rookie Anthony Schwartz. The rookie scored his first NFL touchdown last week, has the speed to break off a big play, and head coach Kevin Stefanski said Schwartz should get more chances to close out the 2021 campaign. If the Browns steamroll the Steelers on the ground like I expect them to, there should be a theoretical opportunity for Schwartz to get behind the defense if they respond by loading the box.
Steelers Analysis: Big Ben is listed in the table. However, like Mayfield, I don't feel compelled to use him. Instead, I'm chiefly fixated on the one-two punch of Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson.
The rookie running back is a game-script-proof selection. Therefore, if the Steelers lead much of the game, he should be force-fed against Cleveland's mediocre run defense (18th in rush defense DVOA). However, he should be busy in the passing game if they're behind. Harris averages 4.5 receptions per game. The do-it-all back piles up 93.7 yards per game from scrimmage, touching the ball more than 20 times per game and adding nine touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Johnson is the alpha in Pittsburgh's passing attack. According to Sports Info Solutions, he's 14th in Intended Air Yards (1,365) and seventh in target share (26.1%). Predictably, Johnson is lighting up the box scores with his gaudy underlying numbers, averaging 6.6 receptions and over 80 scrimmage yards per game with seven touchdowns. Moreover, he's a model of consistency, catching five or more passes in all but one game, besting 70 yards with a touchdown in his outlier contest.
The matchup isn't too shabby for Johnson and Pittsburgh's passing game, either. The Browns are only 19th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, I'm also intrigued by Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth. However, Ray-Ray McCloud is a trap. According to Pro Football Focus, McCloud has run the second-most routes (115) on the Steelers in the previous four games. Unfortunately, he's turned his steady route-running into a woefully underwhelming 64 scoreless receiving yards on 12 receptions.
Instead, I prefer Claypool and Freirermuth. Claypool has been third in routes (98) during that span, ripping off 198 receiving yards on 14 receptions, good for an impressive 2.02 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Freirmuth is back from a one-game absence, recovering from a concussion. The rookie tight end is tied for the team lead with seven touchdown receptions, earning a team-high 17 targets in the red zone. I view Claypool and Freirermuth as roughly a coin flip selection if picking between the two.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.