Happy fantasy baseball prep season!
Well, for some of you, anyway. With more and more fantastic content being put out around the entire industry, prep season is essentially year-round now.
Especially for those in dynasty leagues.
One of the best parts of dynasty leagues is the annual first-year player draft. Each dynasty league – and team – is different, of course, but adding the freshly-drafted prospects is always a date that’s circled on the calendar.
Contrary to some beliefs around the fantasy industry, prospects matter, and prospects can be scouted and projected. Few do it better than the guys at Prospects Live, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Fantrax.
Like we did last year, we’ll pull from their analysis for some of the guys listed below.
I’ve watched tape on all of them, but I’m not going to pretend to be a scout here. I do, though, have a good feel for where they should be taken in drafts.
Before we look at the top 20 options for this year, let’s look back at last year’s rankings.
Overall, it was a solid list, but Robert Hassell probably should have been higher up in the rankings and Ha-Seong Kim lower.
Like always, I recommend that you check out the work that the great people at Prospects Live and Fantrax are doing with their nonstop prospect coverage that is geared toward a fantasy crowd. Big shoutout to Eric Cross and Chris Clegg for what they’re building over there. Hat-tip, gents.
As always, know the rules of your league and the scoring. If it’s a points league, pitchers will be elevated, and speed guys will be suppressed in terms of value.
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You could go a number of ways here with the top pick, but I’m more than excited about Suzuki coming over after the lockout is over. It isn’t a done deal – it can’t be – but it sounds like Suzuki is going to be signing with Boston. The 27-year-old slugger has a power profile and plate approach that should translate well. I’m a sucker for close-proximity prospects, and Suzuki will provide immediate value for fantasy managers.
There are a ton of shortstops in this class. Like, a ton. For me, you could have them in any order, but I prefer Mayer here the most. He’s a big-bodied shortstop with a beautiful swing from the left-hand side. Fenway is tough on left-handed hitters, but we can worry about that later. The comp you see is Corey Seager, which is enough for me to take him here.
Watson falling to Miami was a gift. He has a smaller build than Mayer, but he projects for a plut-hit and plus-power too. Baseball Prospectus offers a comp to future teammate Jazz Chisholm, which is exciting.
From a real-life perspective, Lawlar was my favorite to go 1.1 in the draft. For fantasy, I like him a lot, too, but he suffered a shoulder injury early on, which pushes him down in as a tiebreaker. I like Lawlar a lot at this spot, especially with the plus-speed he offers.
Points leaguers, come on down. You can consider Leiter at 1.1 with the value placed on pitchers given the format. Leiter has a great pitch mix, and he’s going to be in Texas sooner rather than later, which is always a plus in the FYPD. I’m usually out on short pitchers (love you, Marcus Stroman), but I’m in on Leiter. He’s my 1.1 in points leagues.
I know, I know. Catchers. I fade them with everyone else usually. But I beg you, overlook the position on Ford and just look at the player. He has a plus-hit tool, offers plus power, and he has good speed for a catcher. Getting steals from your catcher is just a cherry on top. I’m investing where I can.
With House, you’re sacrificing the hit tool for the power. Double-plus power, that is. If dreaming on the raw power is your kind of thing, you could move him in the top 3 and I’d have no problems with it.
Davis is going to be a better real-life player than he is for fantasy, but his high floor gives him a top-10 floor as a fantasy option going forward at the position. That’s not a high bar to clear, by the way.
9. Benny Montgomery (OF – COL)
Like Zac Veen last year, it’s fun to dream about a toolsy outfielder playing in Colorado. But being that it’s the Rockies, we may not see him until 2053. Montgomery has great size and projectable tools, but he’s the most risky player so far in this draft. If you’re risk-averse, fade him, but he arguably has the highest upside in the player pool.
As a lefty, I’m not worried about the new dimensions in Baltimore for their left-field fence. Cowser is an advanced collegiate bat, and as Chris Clegg points out, an adjustment to add loft to his swing should unlock some power in the profile.
11. James Triantos (SS/3B – CHC)
Triantos’ stock is up after his fantastic debut. I’m tempted to move him inside my top 10, but for now, I’m fine with him here with his plus-power and double-digit steals ability.
There’s probably going to be a Yankees tax with Sweeney in drafts, but he’s worth paying the price for if he falls outside the top 10. He has great contact skills, and the power is developing. Power? From the left side? In Yankees Stadium? Yes, please.
I really, really hate pitching prospects, but I can’t avoid them forever, right? High school pitchers have the highest bust rate, so there’s obvious risk here with Jobe. He offers a great three-pitch mix with three-plus pitches. Him being an arm – a high school arm, at that – is the only risk in taking him. The profile looks not only safe, but that of an ace.
I like Frelick, and while the lack of power isn’t great, he makes fantastic contact and offers plus-speed on the basepaths. Let’s get those steals where we can.
Allen offers legit five-category upside, and when you get a kid like him in a park like Cincinatti, it’s hard not to dream about 30/15 seasons.
I don’t know anything about Arias, so I’m going to pull from Baseball Prospectus:
“Arias has repeatedly performed in games, showcasing a potential advanced hit tool from both sides of the plate with promising contact ability and swing decisions. Further, he has flashed both power, particularly from the right side, and speed, and his athletic, projectable frame indicates five-category upside.”
Hogland was going to be a top-5 pick in the draft, but then he needed Tommy John surgery. Pitching can suck sometimes. Hogland is a risk because of the surgery, but being an advanced college arm makes me feel better. I see an SP2 here at his ceiling.
I feel like a Cleveland pitcher has to be in the top 20 because, well, Cleveland gets the most out of all of their arms. Williams carries reliever risk, but if there’s an org I trust to get the most ouf of their pitchers, it’s Cleveland (along with Miami and Tampa Bay).
19. Cristian Vaquero (OF – WAS)
Like Arais, I’m pulling from Baseball Prospectus for Vaquero:
“Vaquero received the highest bonus in the international class ($4.9 million) for good reason, as he arguably possesses the highest ceiling of anyone in this class. His athletic 6-foot-3 frame oozes projectability with present plus speed and burgeoning power. New to switch-hitting, his right-handed swing remains a work in progress, but he flashes a feel to hit. If everything clicks, Vaquero could be what we all hoped Kristian Robinson would become. As with all 16-year-old prospects, both could develop any number of ways, and how their bats perform in pro ball remains an open question.”
McLain is a great, safe prospect, if that’s your thing (it’s mine). He also is an advanced college hitter, so will arrive sooner (also my thing). It feels like the Reds have a type (Nick Senzel, Jonathan India) and McLain may be the latest high-floor prospect they’ve drafted.
The best of the rest:
Colson Montgomery (SS – CHW)
Lonnie White Jr. (OF – PIT)
Will Bednar (SP – SF)
Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT)
Sam Bachman (SP – LAA)
James Wood (OF – SD)
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
