NBA DFS Primer: Sunday (1/9)

We ended up touching on a handful of optimal plays in yesterday’s article, so all and all, it was a good one for The Primer. Sunday’s eight-game slate will be slightly more challenging to tackle, with a total of 16 teams to dissect.

As always, The NBA DFS Primer from us here at FantasyPros is a first look article that will touch on multiple segments. First, we like to start with the schedule/odds to detect which game environments look the most appealing, followed by the ever so important injury report. We will then get into a few favorite core plays, GPP darlings, cash game considerations, and salary relief players. We’ll wrap up with price discrepancies we have uncovered between FanDuel and DraftKings.

So enough of the small talk, let’s jump into Sunday’s Primer.

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Schedule and Odds

• WAS @ ORL (+6.5) O/U: 220.5
• NOP @ TOR (-7) O/U: 222
• MIN @ HOU (+5) O/U: 230
• DEN @ OKC (+7) O/U: 214.5
• CHI @ DAL (-3.5) O/U: 217.5
• CLE @ GSW (-9) O/U: 218.5
• SAC @ POR (+1.5) O/U: 225.5
• MEM @ LAL (-3) O/U 224.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Montrezl Harrell (protocols) questionable
• Cole Anthony (ankle) questionable
• Wendell Carter Jr (hamstring) questionable
• Josh Hart (unspecified) OUT
• Patrick Beverly (groin) questionable
• Alperen Sengun (ankle) TBD
• Tre Mann (conditioning) TBD
• Alex Caruso (protocols) TBD
• Luka Doncic (ankle) questionable
• Kristaps Porzingis (protocols) OUT
• Klay Thompsom (achilles) expected to start
• Draymond Green (hip) available
• Stephen Curry (quad) available
• Deaaron Fox (shoulder) questionable
• Damian Lillard (abdomen) OUT
• CJ McCollum (chest) OUT
• Ja Morant (thigh) expected to play
• Kyle Anderson (back) OUT
• Steven Adams (protocols) OUT
  
• Dillon Brooks (ankle) TBD
• LeBron James (abdomen) probable

The injury report can change at any minute, and all player statuses are subject to change whether they’re on the injury report or not. Paying attention to as much news as possible is crucial to long-term success in DFS. It can also give you a severe leg up on anyone in the field who fails to do so. Once the later game information becomes available, be sure to take advantage of late swapping. Late swap allows you to get off the chalk and plug in a value play that may not have been expected or get to a high upside play in an attempt to take one last run at the top of the leaderboard. Keeping up with all the news and information that comes out can be a lot to manage, but it’s essential.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Core Plays

Jusuf Nurkic (C-POR): $7,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
With Damian Lillard (abdomen) ruled out for at least the next three games and C.J. McCollum (chest) out indefinitely, The Trail Blazers have been a go-to for some great plays. Jusuf Nurkic has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the two-star guard’s missing time and is currently the best weapon Portland has in their rotation. He’s now posting a 28% usage rate with CJ and “Dame Time” off the floor while posting a stellar 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. More importantly, Nurkic is guaranteed to see 30 plus minutes with no Larry Nance Jr. (Knee) to snag any playing time at the five. As a result, Jusuf Nurkic has gone for 32 or more fantasy points in his last four games, with an average of 39 over that span. He should continue his stellar play going up against Sacramento tonight. They’re one of the worst defenses in the NBA, carrying an OPRK of 26th on DK and 30th on FD.

Nikola Jokic (C-DEN): $12,200 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
I feel like anytime Jokic is on a slate, I’m going to recommend him as one of the core plays. He is the best fantasy point-per-minute player on the planet. He’s scored 41 DraftKings points in all but one game this season and missed that mark on FanDuel just twice. Hard to bet against Jokic when he boasts the highest floor/ceiling in the NBA while averaging 59 fantasy points per game. Going up against a tremendously weak frontcourt in the Oklahoma City Thunder, Jokic should have a field day. You usually can’t go wrong paying up for the big fella, and I especially like his salary on FanDuel tonight.

LeBron James (PG/SF/PF-LAL): $11,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
This is a star-studded slate and going to be a difficult one to nail, but one of those stars that should be highly considered to pay up for is LeBron James. The man has put the Lakers on his back, and at 37 years young, seems to be the Benjamin Button of the NBA. He has been a model of consistency, scoring 60 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight games. Since Christmas, he has averaged 34.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.7 blocks in 36.7 minutes. I’m not sure any team in the NBA has an answer defensively for LeBron, and it’s likely he continues his dominance against the Grizzlies at home tonight.

Cash Game Considerations

Terrence Ross (SG/SF-ORL): $5,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Terrence Ross has been a silent killer of sorts. You don’t hear much about him for fantasy purposes, but he has been producing each night. He has scored 25 or more DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, missing the mark only once with 24.3 previous games. Ross is a cash game consideration consistently returning 4X to 6X his value and has shown a 40 point plus ceiling multiple times already this season.

Brandon Clarke (PF/C-MEM): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
The Grizzlies will be without Steven Adams (COVID-19) and Kyle Anderson (back) in their frontcourt tonight. Last night, Brandon Clarke posted a double-double in that same situation, finishing with 18 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, and three blocks in only 28 minutes. Clarke will be a viable go-to option for cash games with the Grizz once again shorthanded. Especially on DraftKings, where he should have no problem returning 5x the value or better with a sub 5k price tag.

Nassir Little (SF/PF-POR): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
I already stated earlier that Portland would be missing their to star players and, in turn, their two highest usage players as well. That has left the Trail Blazers asking much more out of players like Nassir Little, and he’s embraced the newfound prominent role he’s been tasked with. He’s not a high-usage fantasy player, but the minutes and production have been there. Little has played at least 30 minutes in seven of his last nine games, where he has averaged 30.1 DraftKings points. At just $5K, that’s a 6X return on investment. Exactly what you’re looking for from your cash game players. To top things off, the Blazers face off against the Sacramento Kings and their porous defense that ranks 28th in points allowed while also ranking 27th in defensive efficiency.

GPP Targets

Fred VanVleet (PG/SG-TOR): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Fred VanVleet has been on fire lately! He’s coming off a slate-breaking performance where over 70 fantasy points. He’s scored 50 or more fantasy points in six of seven games, with five of those performances coming in a row. I would much rather take the discount on VanVleet with how consistent he’s been of late than pay up to an $11k Steph Curry. The Raptors play at the third-highest pace in the league, so VanVleet is always going to have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. It also doesn’t hurt that he’ll be facing a Pelicans team with an OPRK of 27th against the guard position.

Cole Anthony (PG/SG-ORL): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Cole Anthony made yesterday’s Primer, and I’m willing to go right back to the well here tonight. On an eight-game slate, Anthony’s roster % shouldn’t be high with so many viable options that will project better. In a GPP, though, low roster % with slate winning upside is the type of players you want to take your shots on, and Anthony fits the bill. He’s scored 40 plus fantasy points in three consecutive games and has 60 point upside in his arsenal. The Orlando Magic offense runs through their young guar, who carries a 27.4% usage rate and a 19.9 player efficiency rating.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF/C-MEM): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
With the second-highest total on the slate of 226 points, I’m going to want to get pieces of this Memphis and Lakers game. We’ve already touched on the Grizzlies being shorthanded in the frontcourt, and that’s going to leave Jaren Jackson Jr. tasked with taking on a significant workload. He’s coming off a stellar performance last night where he put up 26 points, eight rebounds, three assists, five blocks, and three steals, which led to 57 DK points and 63 FD points. It was indeed a masterful fantasy performance contributing in all categories. Granted, this all happened without Ja Morant on the court along with multiple other vital rotational players where JJJ boasts a 29% usage rate; it was still encouraging to see him get rolling. Even with Morant expected to be back tonight, the Grizzlies will still be without multiple frontcourt pieces, and the Lakers are still without Anthony Davis (knee). Jackson could feed off last night’s performance and once again blow this price tag out of the water.

Value Plays

Maxi Kleber (PF-DAL): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Kristaps Porzingis (COVID-19) has already been ruled out for tonight, and Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable. That’s going to leave a ton of opportunity on the table, making Kleber’s $4,400 salary on DraftKings immensely appealing regardless of whether Luka plays or not. Kleber averages 27 DraftKings points and 35 minutes with KP off the court. That makes opportunity alone makes him one of the better value options on tonight’s slate from a first look standpoint.

Herbert Jones (PF/C-NOP): $5,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
This is purely a DraftKings play, with his price being way too high on FanDuel for my liking. His $6,900 salary on FanDuel speaks to the mispricing on DraftKings. Jones averages 34.8 minutes per game and 33.2 over his last six-game which translates to 1.05 fantasy points per minute. Jones can easily pay off that $5,000 salary on DraftKings tonight going up against the Toronto Raptors, who play at the third-fastest pace in the league.

Advantageous Pricing

• Herbert Jones (PF/C-NOP): $5,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
• Maxi Kleber (PF-DAL): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Brandon Clarke (PF/C-MEM): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
• Fred VanVleet (PG/SG-TOR): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
• Nassir Little (SF/PF-POR): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Terrence Ross (SG/SF-ORL): $5,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
• Nikola Jokic (C-DEN): $12,200 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
• Anfernee Simons (PG/SG-POR): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
• Russell Westbrook (PG-LAL): $10,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
• Zach LaVine (SG/PG): $9,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

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