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    Evan Ritter | Sat, Jan 29th 2022, 12:20pm EST

NBA DFS Primer: Saturday (1/29)

Saturday gives us an appealing six-late, but it comes with a ton of news to follow. There are multiple teams heading into the tail ends of back to backs, so it will be crucial to follow which starters sit out for rest. With plenty to get into, let’s go ahead and dive in.

The Primer is a first look article filled with all the information you need to help get your lineups rolling. We’ll begin with the schedule and odds to highlight which game environments stand out. We follow that up with the injury report, which we know in the COVID-19 era it is more important than ever to pay close attention. Then we shed light on some of our top plays of the slate, including core building blocks, GPP candidates, cash game considerations, and salary relief targets. Finally, we’ll always wrap up with our advantageous pricing segment, which uncovers price discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings.

So without further ado, let’s jump into another edition of the NBA DFS Primer brought to you by FantasyPros.

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Schedule and Odds

  • BOS @ NO (+5.5) O/U: 212
  • IND @ DAL (-10) O/U: 217.5
  • SAC @ PHI (-10.5) O/U: 222.5
  • WAS @ MEM (-5) O/U: 229.5
  • TOR @ MIA (-4)  O/U: 208
  • BKN @ GS (-7) O/U: 229

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

The injury report can change at any minute, and all player statuses are subject to change whether they’re on the injury report or not. Paying attention to as much news as possible is crucial to long-term success in DFS. It can also give you a severe leg up on anyone in the field who fails to do so. Once the later game information becomes available, be sure to take advantage of late swapping. Late swap allows you to get off the chalk and plug-in value plays that may not have been expected or get to a high upside play in an attempt to take one last run at the top of the leaderboard. Keeping up with all the news and information that comes out can be a lot to manage, but it’s essential.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Core Plays

Ja Morant (PG-MEM): $10,300 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel

Ja Morant is one of the most exciting players to watch in the NBA, especially recently with how well he’s playing. He’s gone for 60 plus DraftKings points in the last four of five games, narrowly missing the mark with 56.5 to make it five consecutive. Additionally, Ja has been boasting a 35.3% usage rate leading to 1.43 DraftKings points per minute. Morant and the Grizzlies are rolling right now. Even on the back end of a back-to-back, I expect them to continue their excellent play against a deflated Wizards team who just allowed the Pistons to mount a 35 point comeback which is the second largest in NBA history.

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF-MIA): $8,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

I will gladly go to a sub-9k Jimmy Butler as a core option on tonight’s slate. However, Miami did play last night, so Eric Spoelstra may give him the night off. Vegas has Miami as -5.5 point favorites as of now, so it seems they’re expecting Butler to be a go. Last night, Butler had a phenomenal all-around game against the Clippers, posting 26 points, six rebounds, nine assists, three steals, and a block. I look for him to feed off that performance tonight against a middle-of-the-road defense like the Toronto Raptors, who are 18th in the league in defensive rating.

Domantas Sabonis (PF/C): $9,900 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel

Sabonis returned from a four-game absence on Friday, and while it was unclear if he would have a minutes restriction, that was not the case. Instead, he played a game-high 44 minutes and put up a massive triple-double during an overtime win against the Thunder. Myles Turner (foot) and Goga Bitadze (foot) will be out tonight, leaving the Pacers’ frontcourt options limited. So, even after playing huge minutes last night, I expect we’ll see Sabonis on the court for his regular rotation tonight.

Cash Game Considerations

Joel Embiid (C-PHI): $11,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

Embiid has been on another level this season and is one of the front runners in the MVP talks. He’s 4th in the league with 52.7 points per game, boasts a 37.5% usage rate, and is a 1.60 fantasy point per minute producer. He’s scored 50 or more fantasy points in 12 of his last 15 games and should have little to no problem getting there again tonight against the Kings. Sacramento is the worst defense in the league, ranking dead last in points allowed in the paint (52.7) and 29th in points allowed per game (114.9). There is blow-out risk, but if the 76er’s run away with this game, then Embiid most likely got them there.

Josh Hart (SG/SF-NOP): $6,500, $6,700 FanDuel

Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Jona Valanciunas (illness) sat out last night against the Denver Nuggets and are both questionable for tonight’s game, as well. That leaves Josh Hart to take on a much more prominent role in this Pelicans offense. With both Ingram and Valanciunas off the court, Hart becomes over a fantasy point per minute player. The Pelicans as a whole will be a team to target tonight if their two best players are once again out.

Stephen Curry (PG-GSW): $10,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel

I’m going to be looking Curry’s way a lot tonight. On Thursday, he had a huge bounce-back game, scoring 29 points and going 60% from behind the arc, hitting six of his ten three-point attempts. With it being an away game, the Nets will have Kyrie Irving to complement James Harden offensively, so the Warriors will need Curry’s firepower. As good as the Nets are offensively, they lack in defensive effort. They give up 24.3 points, 7.9 assists, and 7.3 rebounds to point guards on a per-game basis. So Curry is in an excellent spot to have another vintage performance.

GPP Considerations

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF-BOS): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel

Tatum is playing excellent basketball right now. Over the last three games, he has averaged 35.7 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks. At a 32.0% usage rate, it’s clear this offense runs through Tatum, and I like his chances against a Pelicans team who quite possibly could be significantly undermanned. So it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tatum drop a triple-double tonight and be one of the optimal plays.

Tyrese Maxey (PG-PHI): $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Maxey and the 76ers have one of the best matchups on tonight’s slate against the Sacramento Kings. He’s playing over 35 minutes a night and has scored double-digit points in his last ten games. So he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to put up a big fantasy performance against the Kings, who allow 24.6 points, 8.3 assists, and 6.8 rebounds per game to point guards.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF/C-MEM): $6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

Triple-J has always had the talent and the raw athletic ability to be a prominent player in the NBA, but he’s had trouble adjusting to the game at the pro level. This year, though, it all seems to be coming together for the Grizzlies’ 4th-year player. Jackson’s salary is more appealing on DraftKings, but I’ll also target him in GPP’s on FanDuel because of their scoring rules. He’s coming off consecutive 40 plus games where he had six blocks in each. Jackson’s game is firing on all cylinders right now, and I’m going to continue to roster him until he cools down.

Value Plays

Gary Trent Jr. (SG/SF-TOR): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

In my opinion, Gary Trent Jr. Is too cheap, especially on DraftKings. He’s scored 42.0 and 40.3 DK points in his last two games, in which he was shooting lights out, hitting a total of 11 three-pointers. If Trent can continue his hot shooting, he’s an excellent value play tonight, and if he adds in some peripheral numbers to his stat line, he becomes one of the best plays on the entire slate. Either way, Gary Trent Jr.is a great value option.

Guillermo Hernangomez (C-NOP): $5,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

This play is entirely contingent on whether or not Jonas Valancunias (illness) can play or not tonight. If he does sit, Hernangomez is again in a phenomenal spot. In the last two games with J-Val out, Willy has played 30 or more minutes and logged a double-double in both. He will be super chalky and one of the highest-rostered plays on a six-game slate, but for good reason. Last night he returned 10x his value at $5,100. He likely didn’t see a price increase with J-Vals status still up in the air, but it will be one of the most important pieces of news to pay attention to before setting your lineups.

Advantageous Pricing

  • Gary Trent Jr (SG/SF-TOR): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF/C-MEM): $6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
  • Tyrese Maxey (PG-PHI): $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Stephen Curry (PG-GSW): $10,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
  • Caris LeVert (SG/SF): $8,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
  • OG Anunoby (SF/PF): $7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
  • Chris Boucher (C/PF): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
  • Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C): $7,400, $8,200 FanDuel

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Evan Ritter is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Evan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter.

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